4 ms·

Norway declares victory in move away from gas cars

5 points by bookofjoe 1y ago

bookofjoe 1y ago
https://archive.ph/DzrkA https://archive.ph/DzrkA
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> Oslo will now start to roll back some tax exemptions over the next two years Close to 60% of Norwegian passenger vehicles still burn fossil fuels [1]. This smells more like belt tightening [2] than a victory lap. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/norway-cabinet-aims-to-spend-more-oil-cash-in-2026-budget?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/norway-ca...
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  ~95% of light vehicles sold this year will be EVs. Fleet turnover will occur eventually, we're arguing time horizon. Related: Norway EV sales and related data - https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ (top two graphs tell the story) EVs reach record 98.3 pct share of new car sales in Norway, surge across Europe - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45596668 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45596668 - October 2025 Norway says 'mission accomplished' on going 100% EV, proposes incentive changes - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45593746 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45593746 - October 2025 Norway Is Uprooting Its Fuel Pumps as Electric Cars Take Over - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-28/norway-is-uprooting-its-fuel-pumps-as-electric-cars-take-over https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-28/norway... | https://archive.today/zZMep https://archive.today/zZMep - March 28th, 2025 Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37966767 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37966767 - October 2023 Norway EV Charger Map - https://placetoplug.com/en/charging-stations/norway/map https://placetoplug.com/en/charging-stations/norway/map
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    I’m not arguing Norway isn’t heading in the right direction faster than almost anyone else. It’s just premature to declare victory in any sense when you’re still mostly burning gas.
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      But for how long they will burn petroleum for transportation is locked in based on existing petrol fleet lifecycle. Could they pull forward "victory" by banning petrol vehicle use or forcing petrol stations to close immediately? Sure, but that is unlikely to be popular. Victory is locking in the future, I argue, to get to an inflection point where it would take overwhelming momentum to overcome the trajectory established. And Norway is at that inflection point, under the assumption that EV manufacturing ramp and sales rates continue upward, EV prices remain at current levels if not decline further, we have a rough idea of how many combustion vehicles remain in service and their estimated service life remaining, etc. https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/norway-fuel-demand-electric-car-bus-truck-gasoline-diesel https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/norway-fuel-demand-electri... https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Norway/gasoline_consumption/ https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Norway/gasoline_consumption... https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/olje-og-gass/statistikk/sal-av-petroleumsprodukt https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/olje-og-gass/statis...
      - toomuchtodo 1y ago
        Additional citation: Monitoring CO2 emissions on Norwegian roads [pdf] - https://www.toi.no/getfile.php?mmfileid=74689 https://www.toi.no/getfile.php?mmfileid=74689 - January 2023 (Figure 15 shows several different scenarios, all resulting in Norway's road-transport emissions dropping by at least 90% from their peak by 2050.)
    - tencentshill 1y ago
      Most of those ICE cars will be off the roads in ~15 years, even if they were all brand new today. Less if they salt their roadways in the winter.
mytailorisrich 1y ago
Now they need to deal with used EV batteries...
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  https://businessnorway.com/articles/closing-the-recycling-gap-norways-circular-battery-economy https://businessnorway.com/articles/closing-the-recycling-ga... > Hydrovolt has the capacity to process 12 000 metric tons of battery packs on annual basis, or enough to recycle the entirety of the Norwegian end-of-life battery market. The fully automated recycling process enables recycling of up to 95 per cent of battery materials, including aluminium and the “black mass” containing lithium, manganese and cobalt.
  - mytailorisrich 1y ago
    That's the PR. If you Google reality is less idyllic.
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      Citations welcome!
jasonthorsness 1y ago
Incredible given Norway is not known for its mild climate. I guess it really doesn't make much of a difference.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  Most new cars in Norway are EVs. How a freezing country beat range anxiety - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44141407 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44141407 - May 2025 Here's Why Norway Hasn't Had Trouble With Winter EV Charging - https://insideevs.com/news/705338/norway-winter-ev-charging-no-trouble/ https://insideevs.com/news/705338/norway-winter-ev-charging-... - January 19th, 2024 EVs work fine in the cold in Norway - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39057299 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39057299 - January 2024

5 points by bookofjoe 1y ago

https://archive.ph/DzrkA https://archive.ph/DzrkA

> Oslo will now start to roll back some tax exemptions over the next two years Close to 60% of Norwegian passenger vehicles still burn fossil fuels [1]. This smells more like belt tightening [2] than a victory lap. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/norway-cabinet-aims-to-spend-more-oil-cash-in-2026-budget?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/norway-ca...

toomuchtodo 1y ago
~95% of light vehicles sold this year will be EVs. Fleet turnover will occur eventually, we're arguing time horizon. Related: Norway EV sales and related data - https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ (top two graphs tell the story) EVs reach record 98.3 pct share of new car sales in Norway, surge across Europe - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45596668 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45596668 - October 2025 Norway says 'mission accomplished' on going 100% EV, proposes incentive changes - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45593746 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45593746 - October 2025 Norway Is Uprooting Its Fuel Pumps as Electric Cars Take Over - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-28/norway-is-uprooting-its-fuel-pumps-as-electric-cars-take-over https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-28/norway... | https://archive.today/zZMep https://archive.today/zZMep - March 28th, 2025 Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37966767 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37966767 - October 2023 Norway EV Charger Map - https://placetoplug.com/en/charging-stations/norway/map https://placetoplug.com/en/charging-stations/norway/map
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  I’m not arguing Norway isn’t heading in the right direction faster than almost anyone else. It’s just premature to declare victory in any sense when you’re still mostly burning gas.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    But for how long they will burn petroleum for transportation is locked in based on existing petrol fleet lifecycle. Could they pull forward "victory" by banning petrol vehicle use or forcing petrol stations to close immediately? Sure, but that is unlikely to be popular. Victory is locking in the future, I argue, to get to an inflection point where it would take overwhelming momentum to overcome the trajectory established. And Norway is at that inflection point, under the assumption that EV manufacturing ramp and sales rates continue upward, EV prices remain at current levels if not decline further, we have a rough idea of how many combustion vehicles remain in service and their estimated service life remaining, etc. https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/norway-fuel-demand-electric-car-bus-truck-gasoline-diesel https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/norway-fuel-demand-electri... https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Norway/gasoline_consumption/ https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Norway/gasoline_consumption... https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/olje-og-gass/statistikk/sal-av-petroleumsprodukt https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/olje-og-gass/statis...
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      Additional citation: Monitoring CO2 emissions on Norwegian roads [pdf] - https://www.toi.no/getfile.php?mmfileid=74689 https://www.toi.no/getfile.php?mmfileid=74689 - January 2023 (Figure 15 shows several different scenarios, all resulting in Norway's road-transport emissions dropping by at least 90% from their peak by 2050.)
  - tencentshill 1y ago
    Most of those ICE cars will be off the roads in ~15 years, even if they were all brand new today. Less if they salt their roadways in the winter.

mytailorisrich 1y ago

Now they need to deal with used EV batteries...

toomuchtodo 1y ago
https://businessnorway.com/articles/closing-the-recycling-gap-norways-circular-battery-economy https://businessnorway.com/articles/closing-the-recycling-ga... > Hydrovolt has the capacity to process 12 000 metric tons of battery packs on annual basis, or enough to recycle the entirety of the Norwegian end-of-life battery market. The fully automated recycling process enables recycling of up to 95 per cent of battery materials, including aluminium and the “black mass” containing lithium, manganese and cobalt.
- mytailorisrich 1y ago
  That's the PR. If you Google reality is less idyllic.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    Citations welcome!

jasonthorsness 1y ago

Incredible given Norway is not known for its mild climate. I guess it really doesn't make much of a difference.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Most new cars in Norway are EVs. How a freezing country beat range anxiety - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44141407 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44141407 - May 2025 Here's Why Norway Hasn't Had Trouble With Winter EV Charging - https://insideevs.com/news/705338/norway-winter-ev-charging-no-trouble/ https://insideevs.com/news/705338/norway-winter-ev-charging-... - January 19th, 2024 EVs work fine in the cold in Norway - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39057299 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39057299 - January 2024