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Has Apple Peaked?
- mattparcher 14y agoFor the unfamiliar, Betteridge’s Law of Headlines[1]: "Any headline which ends in a question mark can be answered by the word 'no'" [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridges_Law_of_Headlines http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridges_Law_of_Headlines
- recoiledsnake 14y agoHeadline: "Perhaps Betteridge's Law of Headlines is always true?"
- pav3l 14y agoThe unfamiliar? This article is referenced on HN at least once a week now
- maayank 14y agoAnd for a good reason. I find the noise to signal ratio of these articles relatively high and I think many would like to see less of them.
- 5xz41s0P8T5N 14y agoWill HN ever stop upvoting linkbait, references to Betteridge’s Law, or self-referential jokes?
- pooriaazimi 14y agoI knew about the law, but I didn't know its name!
- choko 14y agoUnfortunately, that law doesn't stand up to scrutiny. I've read several stories today alone where the question in the headline cannot be answered accurately with a simple "no", not that this headline is one of them.
- mikecane 14y agoAbout two years ago, I thought the iPod had peaked and couldn't go anywhere. Yet look at the new iPod Nano.
- mtrimpe 14y agoIndeed; just wait for the iPhone Nano. If only that had been this year's one more thing...
- mikecane 14y agoI don't know that anyone would buy an iPhone Nano. There is such a thing as just being too small. See HP/Palm Veer.
- mtrimpe 14y agoReally? Imagine a tiny phone with around a week of battery life, camera, mp3 player & maps, using the rotary dial for contact selection etc.. As far as I'm concerned that would get you 95% of the value a full iPhone provides; and it would've made for a great one more thing during the last iPhone reveal...
- steve19 14y agoThe problem is not that apples new products aren't improving, but that they are no longer miles ahead of their smartphone competitors. Android is now a compelling alternative. Apple will eventually release a iPhone nano, but Samsung will release a galaxy micro before or soon after. Has any company in history been so large and yet so reliant on a single product? Because of this I am fat to nervous to invest in apple, despite loving their products.
- tjogin 14y agoUh, all the oil companies come to mind. As for tech; Microsoft? Actually, lots of companies are reliant on one of their products. Though I'm not sure Apple is. The iPad is selling at a pace higher than the iPhone did, for example.
- sil3ntmac 14y agoYou tell me? https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL There were plenty of disasters while Jobs was present... anyone remember the iPhone4 antenna disaster? Apple will reiterate and fix and all will be well again. I doubt they will ultimately lose many customers over this.
- cooldeal 14y agoStock price is a lagging indicator of stagnation, if it's even an indicator.
- marshallp 14y agoIf it reshifted to data science from hardware, it has the most cash of any tech company and could grow even larger. Steve Wozniak recently talked about smartphones having AI so this might be already in the works (focus on improving siri rather than stylishness).
- Codhisattva 14y agoCan't do that without capabilities. Apple clearly has tremendous hardware capabilities and to give that up would be inane.
- rgbrgb 14y agoI hope Apple understands that when it comes to a physical computing device, people (including me) care about look and feel (stylishness) a lot more than voice recognition.
- marshallp 14y agoYeah, but what happens when your phone is google glass (could happen in 2 years). Style would end up be just the frame you can buy anywhere.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- steve8918 14y agoI'm neither an Apple fanboy nor a hater. I have an iPhone5, but I use a Windows 7 desktop PC. (I am, however, an Apple Maps hater after using it for a few days.) The annoying thing about articles like this is that it's basically the professional journalist's version of trolling... making an outrageous statement in order to garner attention/clicks. He can come in and shit all over Apple, and suffer no consequences if he's wrong. I would be infinitely more interested in his opinion if he actually shorted the stock and put his money where his mouth is, journalistic rules against trading aside.
- scrrr 14y agoWell, at least it is in the "Opinion" section, and not filed under "News". I think the literature category is similar to say Paul Graham's essays. Which is not to say that the quality is comparable though.
- mycodebreaks 14y agoOne thing he correctly points out is how much better Apple Maps would have been if Mr. Jobs were around. Apple Maps is too big of a blunder for Apple to contain its criticism.
- dasil003 14y agoIs it a blunder or was their hand forced? We can't know.
- SpikeDad 14y agoGarbage statement - both you and the NY Times article. Speculation from a position of ZERO information is stupid and transparently so. No one know why Apple rolled their own Maps and no one could possible know how different it would be if Steve was still alive. The only think I really know is that Apple is smarter than you or the NY Times.
- mikeash 14y agoHow, exactly, would Jobs have made it better? Would he have somehow made the Maps team overcome the inherently intractable obstacles they faced given their position? Would he have jumped in and single-handedly crafted excellent data? Would he have extended the use of Google Maps, despite the indications that this transition was forced on Apple? I keep seeing people say this, but I never hear anyone say exactly what he would have done to make it happen. People basically treat Jobs as magical fairy pixie dust that could be sprinkled on a project to make it awesome. As if Jobs never oversaw the production of anything bad.
- johnrydell 14y agoIt is nearly impossible to stay "the best" for a long time. Apple is going to be great and very profitable for many years to come. But the amazing run they've been on for the past decade will slowly start to fade as entrepreneurs around the world all try to take a piece of their billion dollar business.
- jakejake 14y agoWhat a bunch of baloney. The author is just rewriting history to be sensationalist. The maps have some problems, we all know it already (need one of those batman slapping robin pictures). Apple has mis-steps just like any company. FCPX was very recent and was a total disaster at launch and Steve Jobs was very much there. Have we already forgotten "antenna-gate" with the iPhone 4? There's an expectation for Apple to be so perfect that if any problem happens the ship is going down. No company can break new ground year after year and not have some rough starts.
- logn 14y agoFortunately, Steve Jobs had the idea for Apple TV (a real TV not the little box) that could give Apple another runaway success. With their designer Ive's and the UI designers still around, I see no reason why Apple TV won't propel Apple for many years to come.
- ajross 14y ago"Apple TV" is a 5.5 year old product, currently in its third generation. If this was something that could be won by an "idea" then it would have succeeded by now. The current product looks good, basically "almost as nice as cable for less money" for most users. But I wouldn't pin any long term hopes on a set top box.
- rphlx 14y agoTV is fading. Yes, Baby Boomers still watch it. But those under 30 mostly watch video on phones, computers, tablets now.
- RobAtticus 14y agoCan you source that last claim? It's a rather large claim, and one I'm not willing to take on face value. I can believe that TV is fading, but that the under 30 crowd "mostly" watch video on those mediums is a bit of a stretch to me.
- Someone 14y agoI do not think AppleTV is the same as that TV you are talking about. AppleTV turns that large screen in your living room that used to only get data from a cable into a large Internet-connected display that shows on-demand photos and video (soemtimes from those phones and tablets). In a sense, the TV just is the largest display in the house, in a place where it is convenient for multiple people to look at it from comfortable chairs.
- zaidf 14y agoIf I live in Manhattan and extensively use Maps for public transport info, is it true that feature no longer exists? If so, I'm going to wait before upgrading to iOS 6. Widespread blunder like this does so much to hurt the Apple brand especially in light of an ambitious competitor like Samsung. Apple should realize that even its biggest fan boys will begin rethinking if you cripple basic parts of their product repeatedly. There will come an unforced blunder that couldn't be fixed by an update or use of a cover. I've been an iPhone user for years but am seriously considering a move to S3 after coming across a few use cases that make me hate Apple. Basically the trend I am beginning to see is that if you are making enterprise specific apps, sooner or later you come across a basic and intentional iOS limitation that makes you hit your head against the wall.
- czhiddy 14y agoYup, no more public transport info. Until Google releases their iOS Maps app (assuming they do), the best solution seems to be loading up maps.google.com in Safari instead.
- jorts 14y agoI believe it is pending approval.
- m_ke 14y agoI was planning on buying the new iphone but after upgrading my iPhone 4 to iOS I'm having second thoughts. I might just go and get the S3 or wait for Note2 to come out.
- psylence519 14y agoWhat was it running before iOS?
- m_ke 14y agogood catch, I missed the 6
- Codhisattva 14y agoIt's a silly article. What's really being exposed is just how far ahead Google is with map data aggregation. It's suddenly very apparent that after Search, Google's got great map data.
- xxcode 14y agoApple will never be able to match Google in Maps. Here's why: Apple does not have any technical depth. I am a former Apple employee. Apple can't do technically hard problems that require a multi-person effort. Yes, Apple can and has done good Hardware. But hardware is not technically hard - its an art. Apple is good at Art. Google is good at science.
- bigtones 14y agoWow - did you work at the Apple Store, because that comment is very short sighted. In terms of technical problems that require multi-person effort, OSX is a testament to that, as is Motion, Logic Pro and Compressor. All those are highly technical pieces of software that lead their respective markets. To say Apple can't "do" technically hard problems is extremely short sighted.
- walkon 14y agoOSX does not lead the market.
- berkut 14y agolol! Motion's a joke - to say it leads its respective market is ridiculous - After Effects leads the motion graphics segment, and Nuke leads the compositing segment. The only highly technical app Apple has had that lead the market was Shake, and they completely fucked that one up (due to their secrecy and not telling their customers plans for future releases) and ended up killing the product after the majority of the Nothing Real team left and all their high-end customers had moved to Nuke.
- wooster 14y agoThat's just your opinion. I'm ex-Apple, and disagree.
- ceejayoz 14y ago> Apple can't do technically hard problems that require a multi-person effort. Making UNIX accessible to the masses wasn't a technically hard problem that required a multi-person effort? How about Webkit?
- xxcode 14y agoApple will never be able to match Google in Maps. Here's why: Apple does not have any technical depth. I am a former Apple employee. Apple can't do technically hard problems that require a multi-person effort. Yes, Apple can and has done good Hardware. But hardware is not technically hard - its an art. Apple is good at Art. Google is good at science.
- jarcoal 14y agoThey probably have, but that doesn't mean they don't have a lot of great contributions ahead. The last decade at Apple has been a once-in-a-century run; we might all die before seeing another company pull something like that off again.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- majormajor 14y agoPart of this is the same old rehashed-to-death "would Jobs allow a misstep" revisionism, but the question about protecting the current success is a more interesting one I haven't seen elsewhere. Apple, from '97 until now, hasn't been afraid to cannibalize their old mainstay products -- and that's where I think the absence of Jobs (and just the sheer size of the iOS success) might change things.
- velodrome 14y agoI don't think apple has peaked but growth could be slowing. Like Google and Microsoft, there are many places where they can improve. It looks like they rushed a few things. They are clearly under pressure from other competitors and they are sweating bullets trying to maintain an edge. I think the worse positioned companies are the OEMs. Samsung, HTC, and Nokia do not control the software stack. Microsoft and Google are moving towards making their own hardware. I think Samsung, HTC, and Nokia have peaked. Plain and simple.
- knowtheory 14y agoThe canonization of Steve Jobs as some sort of saint auteur is just freaking ridiculous. Apple has made missteps in the past, while Steve Jobs was alive. That Jobs was not around for this particular misstep isn't particularly interesting or relevant. The disappearance of Google Maps is a consequence of the breakdown of relations between Google and Apple, and that is not about Steve Jobs. Making it about him is just stupid. Google has power over Apple in this case, and Apple is bearing the heat for it, Steve Jobs or no.
- mikeash 14y agoIt's baffling. The G4 cube, Motorola ROKR, retroactively downclocked Power Mac G4s, Mac OS X pinstripes... the man was behind some amazing stuff, but it's not like he was somehow immune to screwups.
- enraged_camel 14y agoYour argument is a gigantic strawman. Nobody has ever claimed that Steve Jobs was perfect and never made mistakes. People admire him because he was an amazing visionary whose product ideas revolutionized several industries.
- mikeash 14y agoPeople have been saying repeatedly that this maps problem would not have happened with Jobs at the helm. I can only conclude that they think he never screwed anything up, because why else would you say that? Do you know?
- bennesvig 14y agoWhile the maps might not be up to Google's in quality, especially in regard to public transportation, turn by turn navigation is a huge upgrade that wasn't available in Google Maps for iPhone users. The title/article comes off as mostly click-bait journalism.
- smoyer 14y agoI have a Powerbook G3 Wallstreet that's still running (and the battery still holds a charge) after almost 15 years and I have an iPad I use extensively for reading. Until last month, I used Ubuntu on everything and now that I have a MacBook, I'm not sure why there has been such a fuss over OSX. I'm probably moving back to Ubuntu. I also have an Android phone that I wouldn't trade for an iPhone. I don't love or hate Apple (or Microsoft for that matter) but I think if Apple is indeed on the down-slope it has nothing to do with the maps application. My beef with both Apple and Microsoft (locking the hardware so I can't use it for other purposes is pretty shady) is that devices I used to be able to peer into layer-by-layer (if I so choose) are now completely opaque. You've essentially reduced an advanced user to the same state of novice-hood as the general population. No thanks! EDIT - But it just works! I hear that from so many people and it just isn't true. The suite of tools I generally use have the same issues on all three platforms so the only distinguishing characteristic is whether I can actually fix it.
- lttlrck 14y agoWhy didn't they publish this two weeks ago... oh right... IOS is in refinement, the focus internally is elsewhere. The iPhone came from nowhere (just ask Nokia) and so will the next big thing. Of course it might flop, but basing any long-term Apple analysis on IOS5 and iPhone 5 is very short-sighted.
- Kilimanjaro 14y agoNo, it hasn't peaked. iPhone peaked, just like iPod peaked. But make no mistake, Apple is in a favorable position to be the 'american Sony' for decades to come. Apple TV? Apple watch? Apple console? Who knows, but whatever comes next, Apple will deliver.
- dschiptsov 14y agoSure. With The New iPad. Now it is already in decline.
- dasil003 14y agoWhen a company has had the run of success that Apple has, there is almost nowhere else to go but down. This article is just capitalizing on the statistical probability that Apple has no way of creating another breakaway product that would catapult them into a hitherto unknown league of corporate success.
- empire29 14y agoThis iOS6 Maps controversy smacks of Antenna-gate. Picking on one shortcoming and heralding the downfall of Apple/iPhone. Yeah, it sucks that iOS6 maps aren't as good as iOS5 maps. Does taking a step backward on (important) iOS app mean Apple has peaked? Probably not. Will the general consumer be happy enough with the iPhone5/iOS6 as a whole that they will tolerate (and then forget about) Maps's reduction in quality? Probably. Will Apple improve Maps so that in 6-12 months where the iOS6 maps quality is on par with iOS5 maps? Probably. Time will tell - but my money is this is a classic case of the media/blogs trolling for page views, the general consumer not noticing (ala antenna-gate), and all this will be forgotten in a month. ...and Job's reign had missteps as well - from imac disc mouse to iphone cellular performance on at&t to mobileme to iphone4 antenna. Apple's great power is they make the entire package so enchanting that consumers tolerate issues until they can be resolved.
- mikeash 14y agoI can tell you that I never encountered a real user who cared about antennagate, but my Apple-using friends are talking nonstop about how awful the new maps are. Antennagate was something that affected essentially nobody, but got picked up as a great story by the media. These maps deficiencies are affecting a lot of real people, and making some of them pretty angry. Most people became aware of antennagate from the media, but everybody I've talked to has learned about iOS 6 maps either from using it and finding it to be sub-par (which is how it happened for me) or talking to people who did that.
- joejohnson 14y agoIf Steve Jobs were still alive, would the new map application on the iPhone 5 be such an unmitigated disaster? Interesting question, isn’t it? No, it's not interesting. It shows a simplistic view of Apple and how companies function. There were missteps while Jobs was alive, and obviously Apple's recent announcements were plans that Jobs was somewhat involved in (he worked almost up until his death). In a month or two this Maps debacle will be stale news, and the bloggers will onto the next shiny toy or minor misstep.