3 ms·

Black swan event: an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

Black swan event: an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.

ben_w 1y ago
> Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. While it is kinda the same direction, it also has two Black Swan components: 1) What he's doing actually matches the rhetoric, e.g. actually trying to kick out illegal immigrants even though they're the (underpaid) farm workers holding back food price inflation. 2) It definitely wasn't on my metaphorical bingo card that someone with multiple felony convictions and who had been impeached twice for trying to interfere with the democratic hand over of power, went on to become the popular choice for president.
- etiennebausson 1y ago
  Because his criminal record has little to do with the policies he is pushing. Sure, the election of a convict was a risky bet, but the appearance of the policies he is pushing was really not.
  - Alive-in-2025 1y ago
    If Harris had won, she wouldn't have sent ice to invade cities and kidnap people. She wouldn't have hugely increased tariffs, etc. see also putting political minders at network news places as part of federal sales approvals.
    - AlecSchueler 1y ago
      Or threatened invasions against EU territories? No way anyone was predicting that.
  - bigyabai 1y ago
    His policy will not work. You cannot pivot America into a second-sector economy while denying China the third sector. Macro 101 stuff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_sector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_sector America has two options; either become the slave of China and enter our century of humiliation, or deny Chinese access to free trade by competing in market economics. Protectionism does not balance America's trade deficits, and US citizens cannot compete against Mexican labor (let alone Chinese prison labor). The economics of it genuinely don't get any simpler than this; American manufacturing will be for naught if we cannot compete in a free market. We already have a successfully financialized economy, throwing out Reaganomics for an even more shit deal is peak neoreactionary nonsense.
  - throw-10-13 1y ago
    History has a word for people that supported Hitler's economic policies but disapproved of his social policies. Nazi.
    - etiennebausson 1y ago
      Not supporting him in any way, shape or form. Just not surprised by his policies. He was quite vocal about them during his campaign.
blooalien 1y ago
> Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. I saw the signs of the beginnings of it decades ago (shortly following the Reagan era) but I had zero clue that it would (or even could) ever get as completely mad-house outta-control as it has. I've watched the situation devolve year after year for decades now, and all the while I kept foolishly believing "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." Well, here we are. Not entirely sure how we got here, or how we'll ever get back, but... This is how it is, I guess. :shrug:
- jacquesm 1y ago
  > "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." That's exactly where I am. I keep wondering what rock bottom looks like. And I fear the day that we'll find out.
  - blooalien 1y ago
    "Rock bottom" is when the last human stands alone in their luxury doomsday bunker just waiting to die and realizes that dying with all the money means literally nothing in the grand scheme of the Universe. They didn't "win" anything of lasting value after all...
    - jacquesm 1y ago
      That's a cheerful view to start the morning with!

ben_w 1y ago

> Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. While it is kinda the same direction, it also has two Black Swan components: 1) What he's doing actually matches the rhetoric, e.g. actually trying to kick out illegal immigrants even though they're the (underpaid) farm workers holding back food price inflation. 2) It definitely wasn't on my metaphorical bingo card that someone with multiple felony convictions and who had been impeached twice for trying to interfere with the democratic hand over of power, went on to become the popular choice for president.

etiennebausson 1y ago
Because his criminal record has little to do with the policies he is pushing. Sure, the election of a convict was a risky bet, but the appearance of the policies he is pushing was really not.
- Alive-in-2025 1y ago
  If Harris had won, she wouldn't have sent ice to invade cities and kidnap people. She wouldn't have hugely increased tariffs, etc. see also putting political minders at network news places as part of federal sales approvals.
  - AlecSchueler 1y ago
    Or threatened invasions against EU territories? No way anyone was predicting that.
- bigyabai 1y ago
  His policy will not work. You cannot pivot America into a second-sector economy while denying China the third sector. Macro 101 stuff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_sector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_sector America has two options; either become the slave of China and enter our century of humiliation, or deny Chinese access to free trade by competing in market economics. Protectionism does not balance America's trade deficits, and US citizens cannot compete against Mexican labor (let alone Chinese prison labor). The economics of it genuinely don't get any simpler than this; American manufacturing will be for naught if we cannot compete in a free market. We already have a successfully financialized economy, throwing out Reaganomics for an even more shit deal is peak neoreactionary nonsense.
- throw-10-13 1y ago
  History has a word for people that supported Hitler's economic policies but disapproved of his social policies. Nazi.
  - etiennebausson 1y ago
    Not supporting him in any way, shape or form. Just not surprised by his policies. He was quite vocal about them during his campaign.

blooalien 1y ago

> Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. I saw the signs of the beginnings of it decades ago (shortly following the Reagan era) but I had zero clue that it would (or even could) ever get as completely mad-house outta-control as it has. I've watched the situation devolve year after year for decades now, and all the while I kept foolishly believing "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." Well, here we are. Not entirely sure how we got here, or how we'll ever get back, but... This is how it is, I guess. :shrug:

jacquesm 1y ago
> "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." That's exactly where I am. I keep wondering what rock bottom looks like. And I fear the day that we'll find out.
- blooalien 1y ago
  "Rock bottom" is when the last human stands alone in their luxury doomsday bunker just waiting to die and realizes that dying with all the money means literally nothing in the grand scheme of the Universe. They didn't "win" anything of lasting value after all...
  - jacquesm 1y ago
    That's a cheerful view to start the morning with!