5 ms·

Not at all, people voted for this and the outcome was expected by people paying attention. I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the electio

Not at all, people voted for this and the outcome was expected by people paying attention. I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.

AlecSchueler 1y ago
> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election. That sounds pretty black swan to me, I'm guessing you never felt the need sheet any previous election? Being predictable and being unique are different things.
- etiennebausson 1y ago
  Black swan event: an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.
  - ben_w 1y ago
    > Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. While it is kinda the same direction, it also has two Black Swan components: 1) What he's doing actually matches the rhetoric, e.g. actually trying to kick out illegal immigrants even though they're the (underpaid) farm workers holding back food price inflation. 2) It definitely wasn't on my metaphorical bingo card that someone with multiple felony convictions and who had been impeached twice for trying to interfere with the democratic hand over of power, went on to become the popular choice for president.
    - etiennebausson 1y ago
      Because his criminal record has little to do with the policies he is pushing. Sure, the election of a convict was a risky bet, but the appearance of the policies he is pushing was really not.
      - Alive-in-2025 1y ago
        If Harris had won, she wouldn't have sent ice to invade cities and kidnap people. She wouldn't have hugely increased tariffs, etc. see also putting political minders at network news places as part of federal sales approvals.
        AlecSchueler 1y ago
        Or threatened invasions against EU territories? No way anyone was predicting that.
      - bigyabai 1y ago
        His policy will not work. You cannot pivot America into a second-sector economy while denying China the third sector. Macro 101 stuff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_sector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_sector America has two options; either become the slave of China and enter our century of humiliation, or deny Chinese access to free trade by competing in market economics. Protectionism does not balance America's trade deficits, and US citizens cannot compete against Mexican labor (let alone Chinese prison labor). The economics of it genuinely don't get any simpler than this; American manufacturing will be for naught if we cannot compete in a free market. We already have a successfully financialized economy, throwing out Reaganomics for an even more shit deal is peak neoreactionary nonsense.
      - throw-10-13 1y ago
        History has a word for people that supported Hitler's economic policies but disapproved of his social policies. Nazi.
        etiennebausson 1y ago
  - blooalien 1y ago
    > Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. I saw the signs of the beginnings of it decades ago (shortly following the Reagan era) but I had zero clue that it would (or even could) ever get as completely mad-house outta-control as it has. I've watched the situation devolve year after year for decades now, and all the while I kept foolishly believing "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." Well, here we are. Not entirely sure how we got here, or how we'll ever get back, but... This is how it is, I guess. :shrug:
    - jacquesm 1y ago
      > "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." That's exactly where I am. I keep wondering what rock bottom looks like. And I fear the day that we'll find out.
      - blooalien 1y ago
        "Rock bottom" is when the last human stands alone in their luxury doomsday bunker just waiting to die and realizes that dying with all the money means literally nothing in the grand scheme of the Universe. They didn't "win" anything of lasting value after all...
        jacquesm 1y ago
        That's a cheerful view to start the morning with!
footy 1y ago
> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election. I did it a little more than a week following the election, but same. I even sold any ETFs with exposure to the US market I previously owned. People thought I was overreacting selling my VGRO, but the YTD returns for my ex-US portfolio are about 150% of what I could have expected with my old holdings and the peace of mind is priceless.
- dingnuts 1y ago
  better pull out of Asian and European markets too! the US isn't going to go down alone. in fact, you should just put it all in gold and keep it under your pillow
  - footy 1y ago
    great plan. Definitely comes from someone who read my comment and is well informed about both the world and my personal situation!
    - DaSHacka 1y ago
      This, but unironically
  - novaleaf 1y ago
    in hindsight: very, very good investment advice :)
    - throw-10-13 1y ago
      Until people show up at your house with guns and take your gold.
      - blooalien 1y ago
        Or until gold becomes literally worthless as a trade commodity because bullets, medicine, food, and potable water are the only valued new $money...
jvanderbot 1y ago
Black swan is not quite right. It's move of an attempted phase change. It was possibly predictable, but definitely disruptive.
chaostheory 1y ago
Speaking of impending capital controls, which countries aren’t likely to have them once the markets crash and globalism finally dies?
Alive-in-2025 1y ago
300k votes in 3 swing states got Trump the electoral college in 2024, separate from him getting the popular vote. In 2020 Biden won 3 swing states by 200k votes. Trump won in 2016 by 80k swing state votes - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45570973 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45570973 It's the swing states that matter, not the popular vote.

Not at all, people voted for this and the outcome was expected by people paying attention. I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election.

AlecSchueler 1y ago

> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election. That sounds pretty black swan to me, I'm guessing you never felt the need sheet any previous election? Being predictable and being unique are different things.

etiennebausson 1y ago
Black swan event: an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier.
- ben_w 1y ago
  > Trump is the direction taken by U.S. politics for decades now. I could see it post- 9/11, and I was not the most enlightened teenager. Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. While it is kinda the same direction, it also has two Black Swan components: 1) What he's doing actually matches the rhetoric, e.g. actually trying to kick out illegal immigrants even though they're the (underpaid) farm workers holding back food price inflation. 2) It definitely wasn't on my metaphorical bingo card that someone with multiple felony convictions and who had been impeached twice for trying to interfere with the democratic hand over of power, went on to become the popular choice for president.
  - etiennebausson 1y ago
    Because his criminal record has little to do with the policies he is pushing. Sure, the election of a convict was a risky bet, but the appearance of the policies he is pushing was really not.
    - Alive-in-2025 1y ago
      If Harris had won, she wouldn't have sent ice to invade cities and kidnap people. She wouldn't have hugely increased tariffs, etc. see also putting political minders at network news places as part of federal sales approvals.
      - AlecSchueler 1y ago
        Or threatened invasions against EU territories? No way anyone was predicting that.
    - bigyabai 1y ago
      His policy will not work. You cannot pivot America into a second-sector economy while denying China the third sector. Macro 101 stuff: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_sector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_sector America has two options; either become the slave of China and enter our century of humiliation, or deny Chinese access to free trade by competing in market economics. Protectionism does not balance America's trade deficits, and US citizens cannot compete against Mexican labor (let alone Chinese prison labor). The economics of it genuinely don't get any simpler than this; American manufacturing will be for naught if we cannot compete in a free market. We already have a successfully financialized economy, throwing out Reaganomics for an even more shit deal is peak neoreactionary nonsense.
    - throw-10-13 1y ago
      History has a word for people that supported Hitler's economic policies but disapproved of his social policies. Nazi.
      - etiennebausson 1y ago
- blooalien 1y ago
  > Others probably saw it coming years or decades earlier. I saw the signs of the beginnings of it decades ago (shortly following the Reagan era) but I had zero clue that it would (or even could) ever get as completely mad-house outta-control as it has. I've watched the situation devolve year after year for decades now, and all the while I kept foolishly believing "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." Well, here we are. Not entirely sure how we got here, or how we'll ever get back, but... This is how it is, I guess. :shrug:
  - jacquesm 1y ago
    > "It can't keep getting worse forever. People are gonna wake up any second now." That's exactly where I am. I keep wondering what rock bottom looks like. And I fear the day that we'll find out.
    - blooalien 1y ago
      "Rock bottom" is when the last human stands alone in their luxury doomsday bunker just waiting to die and realizes that dying with all the money means literally nothing in the grand scheme of the Universe. They didn't "win" anything of lasting value after all...
      - jacquesm 1y ago
        That's a cheerful view to start the morning with!

footy 1y ago

> I moved all of my money out of the US the week following the election. I did it a little more than a week following the election, but same. I even sold any ETFs with exposure to the US market I previously owned. People thought I was overreacting selling my VGRO, but the YTD returns for my ex-US portfolio are about 150% of what I could have expected with my old holdings and the peace of mind is priceless.

dingnuts 1y ago
better pull out of Asian and European markets too! the US isn't going to go down alone. in fact, you should just put it all in gold and keep it under your pillow
- footy 1y ago
  great plan. Definitely comes from someone who read my comment and is well informed about both the world and my personal situation!
  - DaSHacka 1y ago
    This, but unironically
- novaleaf 1y ago
  in hindsight: very, very good investment advice :)
  - throw-10-13 1y ago
    Until people show up at your house with guns and take your gold.
    - blooalien 1y ago
      Or until gold becomes literally worthless as a trade commodity because bullets, medicine, food, and potable water are the only valued new $money...

jvanderbot 1y ago

Black swan is not quite right. It's move of an attempted phase change. It was possibly predictable, but definitely disruptive.

chaostheory 1y ago

Speaking of impending capital controls, which countries aren’t likely to have them once the markets crash and globalism finally dies?

Alive-in-2025 1y ago

300k votes in 3 swing states got Trump the electoral college in 2024, separate from him getting the popular vote. In 2020 Biden won 3 swing states by 200k votes. Trump won in 2016 by 80k swing state votes - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45570973 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45570973 It's the swing states that matter, not the popular vote.