I find it amazing how sentiment extrapolates. Or maybe different people dominate on different threads. For ages people took it for granted Starship will succee

I find it amazing how sentiment extrapolates. Or maybe different people dominate on different threads. For ages people took it for granted Starship will succeed - even quoted cost per kg to orbit! Any comment saying it might still fail would be usually ridiculed and downvoted. Then Starship hit a few failures and the sentiment flipped completely - megalomaniac Musk had his hubris catch up with him. Now two successful launches later it's all gung ho again and great success. What I would like to say is that each success increases the overall chance of final success but there's still non trivial hurdles to overcome: - how well can they reuse the Starship - how much is the turnaround cost - how reliable they end up being after N launches - is the marginal return on building a new Starship positive A380 for example is a marvel of engineering and a technical success, but overall a commercial failure. I love flying on it, but they're not building them anymore. Similar case for the Concorde. I wish SpaceX well, I'd wish them even better if Musk wasn't a part of it, and let's see if they can cover the last 20% on this project. It's not a given to me that they will.