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Well, last few times the US had a big recession, they took down the whole world with them. The biggest recession led almost directly to WWII, and that was befor

by Yoric 1y ago

Well, last few times the US had a big recession, they took down the whole world with them. The biggest recession led almost directly to WWII, and that was before the US centralized that much power or money. I don't live in the US, but I'm rather worried.

mcv 1y ago
That's true. But thanks to Trump's tariffs, much of the world is working to make itself less dependent on the US. There's talk that the Euro could become the new reserve currency. Maybe the Renmibi. It's quite possible that the American Century will end with a massive crash, and outside of the US, Europe will probably suffer quite a bit of damage too if we don't detach ourselves more from the US, but I still think most of the world will be fine. Though I will admit that could be partially wishful thinking.
jhallenworld 1y ago
On the Oct 10 drop, I made a list of a bunch country specific ETFs to see who is and who isn't so correlated with the US. oct 10 drop yield ytd total return mchi china -5.73 2.19 28.48 ewh hong kong -4.22 3.54 23.05 qqq nasdaq 100 -3.47 0.46 12.4 argt argentina -3.34 1.39 -16.04 currency problems ech chile -3.2 2.18 24.8 ewz brazil -2.98 5.42 26.49 spy USA: s&p 500 -2.69 1.08 9.15 epu peru -2.62 3.5 52.16 metals norw norway -2.44 4.06 22.77 ews singapore -2.38 3.59 28.19 ewn netherlands -2.31 1.91 25.28 ewx s&p emerging -2.08 2.81 8.58 ewa australia -1.75 3.02 9.26 enzl new zealand -1.65 2.25 -0.59 eww mexico -1.65 4.07 35.96 ewi italy -1.6 2.7 38.21 tur turkey -1.59 1.83 -9.71 currency problems ewq france -1.44 2.79 19.85 ewc canada -1.32 1.69 20.96 divo usa cc -1.07 4.58 8.43 ewp spain -0.68 2.68 52.85 ewd sweden -0.59 4.28 24.82 eden denmark -0.52 1.83 1.93 ewl switzerland -0.275 3.63 20.78 efnl finland -0.21 3.97 31.54 pin india 0 2.09 -4.03 (Edit: here are a few more) btc bitcoin -3.72 19.71 aaau gold 0.97 48.3 dxy dollar -0.69 -2.91 ashr CSI-300 -4.0 .95 22 (domestic China) fltw taiwan -4.8 1.34 23 They are all correlated- even if the countries are different, it's the same set of investors. But if you have to pick one... Finland? Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have low debt / gdp.
- Yoric 1y ago
  Very nice! Interesting that Chile and Brazil went further down than S&P, but I guess it's noisy.
- zzleeper 1y ago
  Quick q what does "yield" mean here? Also, in which currency are these returns? Because forex shifts (which for sure happened on oct10) mess up the observed returns quite a bit
  - jhallenworld 1y ago
    It's what E-Trade lists for dividend yield or SEC yield. I have no idea if it's before or after exchange to USD. The total return is from totalrealreturns.com, it accounts for USD inflation and includes yield (at least I think), but probably didn't include the Oct 10 drop itself.
- Yoric 1y ago
  That being said, even if for some reason your money is invested in Finland (or somehow safe from the next collapse), that won't be sufficient to save your entire community.

by Yoric 1y ago

mcv 1y ago

That's true. But thanks to Trump's tariffs, much of the world is working to make itself less dependent on the US. There's talk that the Euro could become the new reserve currency. Maybe the Renmibi. It's quite possible that the American Century will end with a massive crash, and outside of the US, Europe will probably suffer quite a bit of damage too if we don't detach ourselves more from the US, but I still think most of the world will be fine. Though I will admit that could be partially wishful thinking.

jhallenworld 1y ago

On the Oct 10 drop, I made a list of a bunch country specific ETFs to see who is and who isn't so correlated with the US. oct 10 drop yield ytd total return mchi china -5.73 2.19 28.48 ewh hong kong -4.22 3.54 23.05 qqq nasdaq 100 -3.47 0.46 12.4 argt argentina -3.34 1.39 -16.04 currency problems ech chile -3.2 2.18 24.8 ewz brazil -2.98 5.42 26.49 spy USA: s&p 500 -2.69 1.08 9.15 epu peru -2.62 3.5 52.16 metals norw norway -2.44 4.06 22.77 ews singapore -2.38 3.59 28.19 ewn netherlands -2.31 1.91 25.28 ewx s&p emerging -2.08 2.81 8.58 ewa australia -1.75 3.02 9.26 enzl new zealand -1.65 2.25 -0.59 eww mexico -1.65 4.07 35.96 ewi italy -1.6 2.7 38.21 tur turkey -1.59 1.83 -9.71 currency problems ewq france -1.44 2.79 19.85 ewc canada -1.32 1.69 20.96 divo usa cc -1.07 4.58 8.43 ewp spain -0.68 2.68 52.85 ewd sweden -0.59 4.28 24.82 eden denmark -0.52 1.83 1.93 ewl switzerland -0.275 3.63 20.78 efnl finland -0.21 3.97 31.54 pin india 0 2.09 -4.03 (Edit: here are a few more) btc bitcoin -3.72 19.71 aaau gold 0.97 48.3 dxy dollar -0.69 -2.91 ashr CSI-300 -4.0 .95 22 (domestic China) fltw taiwan -4.8 1.34 23 They are all correlated- even if the countries are different, it's the same set of investors. But if you have to pick one... Finland? Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have low debt / gdp.

Yoric 1y ago
Very nice! Interesting that Chile and Brazil went further down than S&P, but I guess it's noisy.
zzleeper 1y ago
Quick q what does "yield" mean here? Also, in which currency are these returns? Because forex shifts (which for sure happened on oct10) mess up the observed returns quite a bit
- jhallenworld 1y ago
  It's what E-Trade lists for dividend yield or SEC yield. I have no idea if it's before or after exchange to USD. The total return is from totalrealreturns.com, it accounts for USD inflation and includes yield (at least I think), but probably didn't include the Oct 10 drop itself.
Yoric 1y ago
That being said, even if for some reason your money is invested in Finland (or somehow safe from the next collapse), that won't be sufficient to save your entire community.