4 ms·
I think a lot of HNers are too close to the topic for the right perspective. LLMs are as much of a feature of an existing technology as computers are features
by notepad0x90 1y ago
I think a lot of HNers are too close to the topic for the right perspective.
LLMs are as much of a feature of an existing technology as computers are features of electricity. ML and neural networks have been around for a long time and the transition to LLM usage for us feels like "yup, another feature, just a really good auto-complete".
For most users of LLMs, this is a magical feature that answers any questions and saves so much time and effort. I would even dare say that LLMs are a bigger leap in technology than the internet itself was. The internet connected people, "AI" made it so that we need less of each other!
What was the cause of the enlightenment and renaissance period in europe that led to a boom in science, technology and the industrial revolution which is responsible for computers to begin with? It was the discovery of the new world and the expansion of europe into asia and africa. Get gold and pearls from the new world and sell use it to buy things in the near and far east. This meant people can spend time studying science, but it also meant military R&D. Better ships, better guns,better cannons. You need better science for that. Not just for colonization but the competition between european powers.
What's my point? AI/LLMs, are a leap in that people can now do a lot less things they don't want to do. Even if it means social instability. There is a very active arms-race in military capability, disinformation, control of markets and influence of governments going on as we speak. and this in turn is going to result in better and better improvements in every sector.
The internet meant we had to learn new things, move to more efficient work. LLMs meant without learning as much we tell the computer to do things and all it needs is guidance and some correction.
We all see the fads and the hype all over. But there are very real and very dramatic advantages and values to be extracted from LLMs, which in the long run would be the equivalent of the industrial revolution.
The pessimism feels a lot like people were being pessimistic about the internet back in the 90s.
AI isn't just too big to fail, it isn't something that can fail. Can long distance communication "fail" , can electronic computing fail? can transportation on wheels fail?
All the grifters slapping AI on everything will fail, but the AI tech and all the value and change that comes with it, isn't something worth even consider as having a potential for failure.
(sorry for the long post)
- zzleeper 1y agoThat kinda misses the point for me. I use LLMs a lot and have become an invaluable part of my work (coding, collecting data, proof-reading text) and even personal time (amazing Japanese menu translator!). But I still think they can "fail" in the sense that current investments need an absurd amount of profits in order to have a positive NPV. Data centers depreciate fast, so if you just did $500bn in capex, you better make sure you will get $50bn/yr out of it from the get go or you will fail. And that's the problem; even if sales are high, all vendors are bleeding money and so far the offerings are commoditized enough that I can't see how they will recoup their investment.
- notepad0x90 1y agoSo long as there is a reasonable earning potential, or actually a reasonable expectation that the market will expect a decent earning potential the capital will be there. Unlike crypto (which has yet to fail as a category, just dips), the elephants taking up the tens of billions in investments aren't purely speculative pyramid schemes.