4 ms·

I think this is mostly about the US, right? Most countries haven't invested all that much in AI. Even if all this new AI would completely vanish overnight, I'm

by mcv 1y ago

I think this is mostly about the US, right? Most countries haven't invested all that much in AI. Even if all this new AI would completely vanish overnight, I'm pretty sure most of the world wouldn't care one bit. Of course many AI companies and investors would be bankrupt; they'd be the real losers here. Many other companies and organisations would have wasted a lot of money on nothing, but they'll write it off and move on. If it bankrupts Microsoft, that would have a tremendous impact on many companies using Microsoft products of course (maybe MS should hurry up with that EU-US cloud split, so the EU branch would survive the crash). But on the whole, I'm not too worried.

Yoric 1y ago
Well, last few times the US had a big recession, they took down the whole world with them. The biggest recession led almost directly to WWII, and that was before the US centralized that much power or money. I don't live in the US, but I'm rather worried.
- mcv 1y ago
  That's true. But thanks to Trump's tariffs, much of the world is working to make itself less dependent on the US. There's talk that the Euro could become the new reserve currency. Maybe the Renmibi. It's quite possible that the American Century will end with a massive crash, and outside of the US, Europe will probably suffer quite a bit of damage too if we don't detach ourselves more from the US, but I still think most of the world will be fine. Though I will admit that could be partially wishful thinking.
- jhallenworld 1y ago
  On the Oct 10 drop, I made a list of a bunch country specific ETFs to see who is and who isn't so correlated with the US. oct 10 drop yield ytd total return mchi china -5.73 2.19 28.48 ewh hong kong -4.22 3.54 23.05 qqq nasdaq 100 -3.47 0.46 12.4 argt argentina -3.34 1.39 -16.04 currency problems ech chile -3.2 2.18 24.8 ewz brazil -2.98 5.42 26.49 spy USA: s&p 500 -2.69 1.08 9.15 epu peru -2.62 3.5 52.16 metals norw norway -2.44 4.06 22.77 ews singapore -2.38 3.59 28.19 ewn netherlands -2.31 1.91 25.28 ewx s&p emerging -2.08 2.81 8.58 ewa australia -1.75 3.02 9.26 enzl new zealand -1.65 2.25 -0.59 eww mexico -1.65 4.07 35.96 ewi italy -1.6 2.7 38.21 tur turkey -1.59 1.83 -9.71 currency problems ewq france -1.44 2.79 19.85 ewc canada -1.32 1.69 20.96 divo usa cc -1.07 4.58 8.43 ewp spain -0.68 2.68 52.85 ewd sweden -0.59 4.28 24.82 eden denmark -0.52 1.83 1.93 ewl switzerland -0.275 3.63 20.78 efnl finland -0.21 3.97 31.54 pin india 0 2.09 -4.03 (Edit: here are a few more) btc bitcoin -3.72 19.71 aaau gold 0.97 48.3 dxy dollar -0.69 -2.91 ashr CSI-300 -4.0 .95 22 (domestic China) fltw taiwan -4.8 1.34 23 They are all correlated- even if the countries are different, it's the same set of investors. But if you have to pick one... Finland? Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have low debt / gdp.
  - Yoric 1y ago
    Very nice! Interesting that Chile and Brazil went further down than S&P, but I guess it's noisy.
  - zzleeper 1y ago
    Quick q what does "yield" mean here? Also, in which currency are these returns? Because forex shifts (which for sure happened on oct10) mess up the observed returns quite a bit
    - jhallenworld 1y ago
      It's what E-Trade lists for dividend yield or SEC yield. I have no idea if it's before or after exchange to USD. The total return is from totalrealreturns.com, it accounts for USD inflation and includes yield (at least I think), but probably didn't include the Oct 10 drop itself.
  - Yoric 1y ago
    That being said, even if for some reason your money is invested in Finland (or somehow safe from the next collapse), that won't be sufficient to save your entire community.
rsynnott 1y ago
> Even if all this new AI would completely vanish overnight, I'm pretty sure most of the world wouldn't care one bit. If the economic chaos in the US was sufficiently large (I still think this is _kinda_ unlikely, because exposure is pretty concentrated, but with the massive debt raises it's maybe less contcentrated than it used to be), there would likely be contagion. > If it bankrupts Microsoft, that would have a tremendous impact on many companies using Microsoft products of course It won't; in terms of publicly traded companies, it's probably mostly Oracle and Nvidia in the firing line. MS has plenty of money.
bigbaguette 1y ago
Europe is playing catch with a 200b investment

by mcv 1y ago

Yoric 1y ago

Well, last few times the US had a big recession, they took down the whole world with them. The biggest recession led almost directly to WWII, and that was before the US centralized that much power or money. I don't live in the US, but I'm rather worried.

mcv 1y ago
That's true. But thanks to Trump's tariffs, much of the world is working to make itself less dependent on the US. There's talk that the Euro could become the new reserve currency. Maybe the Renmibi. It's quite possible that the American Century will end with a massive crash, and outside of the US, Europe will probably suffer quite a bit of damage too if we don't detach ourselves more from the US, but I still think most of the world will be fine. Though I will admit that could be partially wishful thinking.
jhallenworld 1y ago
On the Oct 10 drop, I made a list of a bunch country specific ETFs to see who is and who isn't so correlated with the US. oct 10 drop yield ytd total return mchi china -5.73 2.19 28.48 ewh hong kong -4.22 3.54 23.05 qqq nasdaq 100 -3.47 0.46 12.4 argt argentina -3.34 1.39 -16.04 currency problems ech chile -3.2 2.18 24.8 ewz brazil -2.98 5.42 26.49 spy USA: s&p 500 -2.69 1.08 9.15 epu peru -2.62 3.5 52.16 metals norw norway -2.44 4.06 22.77 ews singapore -2.38 3.59 28.19 ewn netherlands -2.31 1.91 25.28 ewx s&p emerging -2.08 2.81 8.58 ewa australia -1.75 3.02 9.26 enzl new zealand -1.65 2.25 -0.59 eww mexico -1.65 4.07 35.96 ewi italy -1.6 2.7 38.21 tur turkey -1.59 1.83 -9.71 currency problems ewq france -1.44 2.79 19.85 ewc canada -1.32 1.69 20.96 divo usa cc -1.07 4.58 8.43 ewp spain -0.68 2.68 52.85 ewd sweden -0.59 4.28 24.82 eden denmark -0.52 1.83 1.93 ewl switzerland -0.275 3.63 20.78 efnl finland -0.21 3.97 31.54 pin india 0 2.09 -4.03 (Edit: here are a few more) btc bitcoin -3.72 19.71 aaau gold 0.97 48.3 dxy dollar -0.69 -2.91 ashr CSI-300 -4.0 .95 22 (domestic China) fltw taiwan -4.8 1.34 23 They are all correlated- even if the countries are different, it's the same set of investors. But if you have to pick one... Finland? Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have low debt / gdp.
- Yoric 1y ago
  Very nice! Interesting that Chile and Brazil went further down than S&P, but I guess it's noisy.
- zzleeper 1y ago
  Quick q what does "yield" mean here? Also, in which currency are these returns? Because forex shifts (which for sure happened on oct10) mess up the observed returns quite a bit
  - jhallenworld 1y ago
    It's what E-Trade lists for dividend yield or SEC yield. I have no idea if it's before or after exchange to USD. The total return is from totalrealreturns.com, it accounts for USD inflation and includes yield (at least I think), but probably didn't include the Oct 10 drop itself.
- Yoric 1y ago
  That being said, even if for some reason your money is invested in Finland (or somehow safe from the next collapse), that won't be sufficient to save your entire community.

rsynnott 1y ago

> Even if all this new AI would completely vanish overnight, I'm pretty sure most of the world wouldn't care one bit. If the economic chaos in the US was sufficiently large (I still think this is _kinda_ unlikely, because exposure is pretty concentrated, but with the massive debt raises it's maybe less contcentrated than it used to be), there would likely be contagion. > If it bankrupts Microsoft, that would have a tremendous impact on many companies using Microsoft products of course It won't; in terms of publicly traded companies, it's probably mostly Oracle and Nvidia in the firing line. MS has plenty of money.

bigbaguette 1y ago

Europe is playing catch with a 200b investment