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I don't think one side would have randomly agreed to release without an exchange. Are you suggesting it would be better to leave the hostages of both sides in c

I don't think one side would have randomly agreed to release without an exchange. Are you suggesting it would be better to leave the hostages of both sides in captivity just in case something happens upon release?

edgineer 1y ago
I'm not reading that Israel released every person of Palestinian descent from their prisons. In another source I see "agreed-upon number of Palestinian security prisoners" which apparently is the 2,000 we heard about today. In another source I see that 9,619 people in Israeli prisons in December 2024 were Palestinian. It sounds to nme that Israel had freedom to choose who would be released or would stay in prison. That there was a number of people negotiated without specifying individuals, and that the number was about 20% of the total prisoners.
jncfhnb 1y ago
It’s a difficult question. Hamas’ incentives are _not_ aligned with the well being of Palestinian civilians. If we see another terror attack in several years one may have to question the reason of this line of thinking. The discourse of this conflict has had a lot of people saying the genocide of Palestinians is bad (true!) but then doing this awkward hand wavey dance of trying to avoid having to confront that Hamas is a violent terrorist cell planted by a foreign government (Iran) rather than a freedom fighting force that cares about the general populace.
- IAmBroom 1y ago
  Yes, it's horrible and complicated, and there is no "good" solution. But I believe that protecting innocents is morally superior to punishing the guilty. Innocent Israelis and Gazans are being freed, along with (probably) some despicable people.
  - jncfhnb 1y ago
    Sure. But acting morally may yield strategically and utilitarianily harmful outcomes against bad faith adversaries. Personally I think this was a geopolitical blunder of Israel and western interests. The net outcome is favorable. But it could have been much more favorable. I suspect we’ll see a gradual reconstitution of Iranian based power.
nkmnz 1y ago
You‘re reading strange things into my factutal statement that Yahya Sinwar was part of the last big exchange. He‘s been in jail for abducting two Israeli Soldiers AND MURDERING FOUR PALESTINIANS. Seems like this time, his ratio was even worse.
- illiac786 1y ago
  “factual” is correct, but it’s anecdotal, not a statistic and hence bears no relevance here. Your comment is phrased in a way that implies this past anecdote should dictate future decisions, I disagree.
  - raxxorraxor 1y ago
    How is this not relevant? Israel doesn't really want these prisoners because they cannot extort them like Hamas. Although they did release some quite horrible terrorists here. I guess they just want them to go away.
    - illiac786 1y ago
      sorry, my mistake, it’s relevant, but anecdotal. It is not relevant for *decision making*. One should not make decisions based on individual cases and anecdotes, it should be based on data/stats. Even if building a statistic, including this one case, „let’s not relieve any palestinian prisoners, ever“ is not an option. What about „there could be a future terrorist in the midst of the prisoners, hence let’s let the remaining israeli prisoners die, because keeping that one terrorist will save more than 20 lives“? Do you see how problematic sacrificing people’s lives based on a some hypothetical is? And I am not even mentioning the freedom of all other non-terroristic palestinians… But I guess, after so much death, so much pain, I don’t expect hate to become less any time soon. Maybe one day. Germany and France killed millions of eachother’s civilians yet managed to make peace one day – the big difference is, both had clear borders and autonomy.
      - nkmnz 1y ago
        Feel free to add your high-quality data about mass amnesties of islamic terrorists to the discussion! I'm curious about what you can come up with and keep an open mind to be convinced by your statistical rigor. But until then, I'd like to remember you of something most people asking for statistical evidence often forget: it's nice to be right if you have statistics available. If you don't have any (viable) statistics, it's much more important to not be wrong than to be entirely right: you don't need to have any data to know that jumping out of an airplane at an altitude of 2km without a parachute is a very bad idea. You also wouldn't ask for a double blind peer reviewed study that confirms a 100% death rate of people doing that. And you wouldn't dismiss the one story about the one guy having done the jump as "anecdotal".

edgineer 1y ago

I'm not reading that Israel released every person of Palestinian descent from their prisons. In another source I see "agreed-upon number of Palestinian security prisoners" which apparently is the 2,000 we heard about today. In another source I see that 9,619 people in Israeli prisons in December 2024 were Palestinian. It sounds to nme that Israel had freedom to choose who would be released or would stay in prison. That there was a number of people negotiated without specifying individuals, and that the number was about 20% of the total prisoners.

jncfhnb 1y ago

It’s a difficult question. Hamas’ incentives are _not_ aligned with the well being of Palestinian civilians. If we see another terror attack in several years one may have to question the reason of this line of thinking. The discourse of this conflict has had a lot of people saying the genocide of Palestinians is bad (true!) but then doing this awkward hand wavey dance of trying to avoid having to confront that Hamas is a violent terrorist cell planted by a foreign government (Iran) rather than a freedom fighting force that cares about the general populace.

IAmBroom 1y ago
Yes, it's horrible and complicated, and there is no "good" solution. But I believe that protecting innocents is morally superior to punishing the guilty. Innocent Israelis and Gazans are being freed, along with (probably) some despicable people.
- jncfhnb 1y ago
  Sure. But acting morally may yield strategically and utilitarianily harmful outcomes against bad faith adversaries. Personally I think this was a geopolitical blunder of Israel and western interests. The net outcome is favorable. But it could have been much more favorable. I suspect we’ll see a gradual reconstitution of Iranian based power.

nkmnz 1y ago

You‘re reading strange things into my factutal statement that Yahya Sinwar was part of the last big exchange. He‘s been in jail for abducting two Israeli Soldiers AND MURDERING FOUR PALESTINIANS. Seems like this time, his ratio was even worse.

illiac786 1y ago
“factual” is correct, but it’s anecdotal, not a statistic and hence bears no relevance here. Your comment is phrased in a way that implies this past anecdote should dictate future decisions, I disagree.
- raxxorraxor 1y ago
  How is this not relevant? Israel doesn't really want these prisoners because they cannot extort them like Hamas. Although they did release some quite horrible terrorists here. I guess they just want them to go away.
  - illiac786 1y ago
    sorry, my mistake, it’s relevant, but anecdotal. It is not relevant for *decision making*. One should not make decisions based on individual cases and anecdotes, it should be based on data/stats. Even if building a statistic, including this one case, „let’s not relieve any palestinian prisoners, ever“ is not an option. What about „there could be a future terrorist in the midst of the prisoners, hence let’s let the remaining israeli prisoners die, because keeping that one terrorist will save more than 20 lives“? Do you see how problematic sacrificing people’s lives based on a some hypothetical is? And I am not even mentioning the freedom of all other non-terroristic palestinians… But I guess, after so much death, so much pain, I don’t expect hate to become less any time soon. Maybe one day. Germany and France killed millions of eachother’s civilians yet managed to make peace one day – the big difference is, both had clear borders and autonomy.
    - nkmnz 1y ago
      Feel free to add your high-quality data about mass amnesties of islamic terrorists to the discussion! I'm curious about what you can come up with and keep an open mind to be convinced by your statistical rigor. But until then, I'd like to remember you of something most people asking for statistical evidence often forget: it's nice to be right if you have statistics available. If you don't have any (viable) statistics, it's much more important to not be wrong than to be entirely right: you don't need to have any data to know that jumping out of an airplane at an altitude of 2km without a parachute is a very bad idea. You also wouldn't ask for a double blind peer reviewed study that confirms a 100% death rate of people doing that. And you wouldn't dismiss the one story about the one guy having done the jump as "anecdotal".