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>from what I've heard, seen and read in the last 6 months. Except they've been saying that for the last 2-3 years. I have lunch with a friend every 2-3 weeks,

>from what I've heard, seen and read in the last 6 months. Except they've been saying that for the last 2-3 years. I have lunch with a friend every 2-3 weeks, and he self-manages his retirement, and he's retired. It was ~2.5 years ago that he said "A lot of the financial news guys I follow say there's going to be a crash in the next 3-6 months." At every lunch we've been following up on that, and it just hasn't crashed yet. I'm not saying it won't, I'm not saying it's risky, but just getting out of the market is not an ideal solution either.

bamboozled 1y ago
It's interesting though because as a middle class person, I'd say my finances have crashed. I know it's not a big "economic crash" but there is zero way anyone can deny that most people are much worse off then they were 4 years ago. It's not "horrible" but I'd call it a kind of "middle class" economic crash. Simple example but real. Parmesan cheese. It was just a staple for me, I'd use it like water, now I literally think twice when making pasta because it's so cost prohibitive to use. So your friends finances may not have "crashed" but he will be much much worse off then he retires and I doubt his wealth has really gained much of anything in the last few years either.
- linsomniac 1y ago
  >I doubt his wealth has really gained much of anything in the last few years either. He has probably gained around 5x in the last 2-3 years. He is heavily into bitcoin. I've gained 3x in the last 2 years and 4x in the last 3 years largely in the stock market. Not saying you're wrong. In Colorado USA the middle class income range is $62-186K, which is a pretty huge range.
  - bamboozled 1y ago
    That’s great for you. Congrats. I guess you’re “making more money”, but you’re going to be paying a lot more for everything too?
    - linsomniac 1y ago
      No, agreed that things do indeed cost a lot more. I don't see it in your example of parm, WalMart has it for $2-$5, which maybe is a lot more than it was a year ago, but also your finances may be a lot different than mine. Or maybe you're in a different parm bracket than I am. ;-) But also my family has been fairly fortunate, knock on wood, that the inflation hasn't impacted us much day to day, and also we have been able to have money to invest. I do realize that many, many people are not so fortunate.
jjav 1y ago
A wall street friend has been predicting the big crash "next month" for about nine months now, but we're still in a mad rally. I tend to agree a big crash is in the cards, but as they say, the market can be irrational for a very long time. The "irrational exhuberance" speech was in 1996 but the market rallied hard for many years after that until the eventual inevitable crash. If you sold in 1996 you messed up real bad.

bamboozled 1y ago

It's interesting though because as a middle class person, I'd say my finances have crashed. I know it's not a big "economic crash" but there is zero way anyone can deny that most people are much worse off then they were 4 years ago. It's not "horrible" but I'd call it a kind of "middle class" economic crash. Simple example but real. Parmesan cheese. It was just a staple for me, I'd use it like water, now I literally think twice when making pasta because it's so cost prohibitive to use. So your friends finances may not have "crashed" but he will be much much worse off then he retires and I doubt his wealth has really gained much of anything in the last few years either.

linsomniac 1y ago
>I doubt his wealth has really gained much of anything in the last few years either. He has probably gained around 5x in the last 2-3 years. He is heavily into bitcoin. I've gained 3x in the last 2 years and 4x in the last 3 years largely in the stock market. Not saying you're wrong. In Colorado USA the middle class income range is $62-186K, which is a pretty huge range.
- bamboozled 1y ago
  That’s great for you. Congrats. I guess you’re “making more money”, but you’re going to be paying a lot more for everything too?
  - linsomniac 1y ago
    No, agreed that things do indeed cost a lot more. I don't see it in your example of parm, WalMart has it for $2-$5, which maybe is a lot more than it was a year ago, but also your finances may be a lot different than mine. Or maybe you're in a different parm bracket than I am. ;-) But also my family has been fairly fortunate, knock on wood, that the inflation hasn't impacted us much day to day, and also we have been able to have money to invest. I do realize that many, many people are not so fortunate.

jjav 1y ago

A wall street friend has been predicting the big crash "next month" for about nine months now, but we're still in a mad rally. I tend to agree a big crash is in the cards, but as they say, the market can be irrational for a very long time. The "irrational exhuberance" speech was in 1996 but the market rallied hard for many years after that until the eventual inevitable crash. If you sold in 1996 you messed up real bad.