4 ms·

Here's a counterpoint: https://brawlstreetjournal.substack.com/p/dead-man-walking https://brawlstreetjournal.substack.com/p/dead-man-walking > According to a r

Here's a counterpoint: https://brawlstreetjournal.substack.com/p/dead-man-walking https://brawlstreetjournal.substack.com/p/dead-man-walking > According to a recent study by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry, annual investment in the energy, industry, building, and transport sectors would have to more than double if current energy policies were to continue: from an average of around €82 billion between 2020 and 2024 to somewhere between €113 billion to €316 billion in 2035. Early transition models had projected a fraction of that. We'll see, but I don't know what to believe anymore. In particular, Germany's deindustrialization is unmistakeable and expensive energy may be the culprit.

rayiner 1y ago
Germany has dropped from 76% of US GDP per capita in 2015 to only 61% today. If AI turns out to be economically valuable the EU fixation on non-nuclear renewables may have turned out to be a very costly error.
- gritzko 1y ago
  France is 60% nuclear
- ta20240528 1y ago
  > Germany has dropped from 76% of US GDP per capita in 2015 to only 61% today. Largely because the USA added $6 trillion to their GDP via fantasy 'hedonic' and 'imputed' components.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- OKRainbowKid 1y ago
  Correlation is not causation.
- oezi 1y ago
  Let me understand the AI argument you are making: Are you saying that if AI is valuable (which is likely) then not having cheap electricity is going to be downside? I would have two objections: - Data center operation and construction is only a fraction of the value creation. If Europe is behind on the AI race it won't matter where the data centers are because the profits are going to go to US companies (as with Google and Facebook so far). - What makes you think that Nuclear would help in any way to have cheap energy? Nuclear has become by far the most expensive energy generation method. Building new nuclear is unfeasible in the west.
- rwyinuse 1y ago
  It's mainly German fixation, not EU fixation.
at-fates-hands 1y ago
Germany tried to go 100% renewables and then found out it wasn't possible, then made a deal with Russia to supply what they needed to cover what renewables couldn't. Right up until Russia invaded Ukraine: A huge increase in gas prices triggered by Russia’s move last month to sharply reduce supplies to Germany has plunged Europe’s biggest economy into its worst energy crisis since the oil price shock of 1973. Gas importers and utilities are fighting for survival while consumer bills are going through the roof, with some warning of rising friction. “The situation is more than dramatic,” said Axel Gedaschko, head of the federation of German housing enterprises GdW. “Germany’s social peace is in great danger.” https://www.ft.com/content/d0c5815f-f0a2-49ad-8772-f4b0fbbd2c94 https://www.ft.com/content/d0c5815f-f0a2-49ad-8772-f4b0fbbd2... They did eventually move to get off of their reliance on Russian energy over a year later, but what they did as go back to coal and nuclear to keep the lights on after divesting from Russian energy imports: In its race to find alternate sources of energy, the country has reopened coal-fired power plants, delayed plans to shut down its three remaining nuclear power plants, and pushed to increase capacity to store natural gas imported from other countries such as Norway and the US. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Lindner pointed to the speed with which a new liquefied natural gas terminal had been built in Germany - in a record of around eight months, he said. More infrastructure investments were planned, he added. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64312400 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64312400
- morsch 1y ago
  Pretty much all of this is wrong or misleading The Energiewende wasn't an attempt to go 100% renewable Germany's dependency on Russian gas goes back to the 1990s and beyond While people were worried about the impact of sanctions on Russian gas, the actual impact was lower than expected. Consumer bills did not go through the roof, partly due to government intervention Combined power generation share from coal compared to before Russia started a war with Ukraine is slightly down, nuclear is 0 (or a percent or two if you consider imports), gas is marginally up
oezi 1y ago
If you visit the German study cited you will see that only a third of those transition costs are for electricity generation and transmission networks. The remainder is spent on climate change adaptations of housing, transport and industry. I personally believe the transition to electric vehicles will soon reach a tipping point due to reduced battery prices and won't add much cost. Costly building upgrades (insulation and heat pumps will be delayed), but renewable installation will continue strongly. It is just to cheap not to do it.

rayiner 1y ago

Germany has dropped from 76% of US GDP per capita in 2015 to only 61% today. If AI turns out to be economically valuable the EU fixation on non-nuclear renewables may have turned out to be a very costly error.

gritzko 1y ago
France is 60% nuclear
ta20240528 1y ago
> Germany has dropped from 76% of US GDP per capita in 2015 to only 61% today. Largely because the USA added $6 trillion to their GDP via fantasy 'hedonic' and 'imputed' components.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
OKRainbowKid 1y ago
Correlation is not causation.
oezi 1y ago
Let me understand the AI argument you are making: Are you saying that if AI is valuable (which is likely) then not having cheap electricity is going to be downside? I would have two objections: - Data center operation and construction is only a fraction of the value creation. If Europe is behind on the AI race it won't matter where the data centers are because the profits are going to go to US companies (as with Google and Facebook so far). - What makes you think that Nuclear would help in any way to have cheap energy? Nuclear has become by far the most expensive energy generation method. Building new nuclear is unfeasible in the west.
rwyinuse 1y ago
It's mainly German fixation, not EU fixation.

at-fates-hands 1y ago

Germany tried to go 100% renewables and then found out it wasn't possible, then made a deal with Russia to supply what they needed to cover what renewables couldn't. Right up until Russia invaded Ukraine: A huge increase in gas prices triggered by Russia’s move last month to sharply reduce supplies to Germany has plunged Europe’s biggest economy into its worst energy crisis since the oil price shock of 1973. Gas importers and utilities are fighting for survival while consumer bills are going through the roof, with some warning of rising friction. “The situation is more than dramatic,” said Axel Gedaschko, head of the federation of German housing enterprises GdW. “Germany’s social peace is in great danger.” https://www.ft.com/content/d0c5815f-f0a2-49ad-8772-f4b0fbbd2c94 https://www.ft.com/content/d0c5815f-f0a2-49ad-8772-f4b0fbbd2... They did eventually move to get off of their reliance on Russian energy over a year later, but what they did as go back to coal and nuclear to keep the lights on after divesting from Russian energy imports: In its race to find alternate sources of energy, the country has reopened coal-fired power plants, delayed plans to shut down its three remaining nuclear power plants, and pushed to increase capacity to store natural gas imported from other countries such as Norway and the US. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Lindner pointed to the speed with which a new liquefied natural gas terminal had been built in Germany - in a record of around eight months, he said. More infrastructure investments were planned, he added. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64312400 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64312400

morsch 1y ago
Pretty much all of this is wrong or misleading The Energiewende wasn't an attempt to go 100% renewable Germany's dependency on Russian gas goes back to the 1990s and beyond While people were worried about the impact of sanctions on Russian gas, the actual impact was lower than expected. Consumer bills did not go through the roof, partly due to government intervention Combined power generation share from coal compared to before Russia started a war with Ukraine is slightly down, nuclear is 0 (or a percent or two if you consider imports), gas is marginally up

oezi 1y ago

If you visit the German study cited you will see that only a third of those transition costs are for electricity generation and transmission networks. The remainder is spent on climate change adaptations of housing, transport and industry. I personally believe the transition to electric vehicles will soon reach a tipping point due to reduced battery prices and won't add much cost. Costly building upgrades (insulation and heat pumps will be delayed), but renewable installation will continue strongly. It is just to cheap not to do it.