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Im not convinced the geopolitical rivalry between US and China is a given. To a large degree it’s been manufactured - Friday’s antics a case in point. The US i

Im not convinced the geopolitical rivalry between US and China is a given. To a large degree it’s been manufactured - Friday’s antics a case in point. The US indeed seems destined to fall behind due to decades of economic mismanagement under neoliberalism while China’s public investment has proved to be the wise choice. Yet this fact wounds the pride of many in the US, particularly its leaders, so it now lashes out in a way that hastens its decline. The AI supremacy bet proposed is nuts. Prior to every societal transition the seeds of that transition were already present. We can see that already with AI: social media echo chambers, polarization, invading one’s own cities, oligarchy, mass surveillance. So I think the author’s other proposed scenario is right - mass serfdom. The solution to that isn’t magical thinking but building mass solidarity. If you look at history and our present circumstances, our best bet to restore sanity to our society is mass strikes. I think we are going to get there one way or another. Unfortunately things are probably going to have to get a lot more painful before enough people wake up to what we need to do.

CuriouslyC 1y ago
I think prior to Trump, Europe could have been mediator to a benevolent China. Now the hawks are ascendant in Beijing. Trump has shown that his ego pushes him to escalate to try and show others who the "big man" is, this will not end well with China, and I'm not sure he's wise enough to accept that. Do you really prefer brutal serfdom to the AI supremacy scenario? From where I sit, people have mixed (trending positive) feelings about AI, and hard negative feelings about being in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. I'd like to understand your position here more.
- grafmax 1y ago
  I just don’t think the AI supremacy scenario is realistic. I think it ignores our current context and postulates a clean break, almost a kind of magical thinking to be frank. AI is likely to intensify current trends not suddenly subvert and reverse them. Palantir, deepfakes, LLM propaganda. The seeds are all here today. To think otherwise - that’s just not how human societies work, not history, none of it. AI is likely to continue to be weaponized, only more so as tech advances. What I found persuasive was the argument that this bubble could be worse than others due to the perceived geopolitical stakes by US leadership, plausibly leading to mass serfdom as our society implodes, based on the argument that we already have a version of serfdom today. I found that astute. I do NOT think that scenario is favorable - it just seems like the most likely future. I hold that we should view our situation with clear eyes so that we can make the best decision from where we stand. Thinking through this, what does that mean for how we should face our present moment? Eventually people will throw off their chains; our leadership is so incompetently invested in class war that the working class is going to continue to be squeezed and squeezed - until it pops. It’s a pattern familiar in history. The question in my mind is not if but when. And the sooner we get our collective act together the less painful it’s going to be. There’s some really bad stuff waiting for us round the bend. What should we do? The economy depends on us the serfs and soon-to-be serfs. It’s the workers who can take control of it and can shut it down with mass strikes. It’s only this in my view that can plausibly free us from our reckless leadership (which goes beyond the current administration) and the bleak future they are preparing for us.
  - CuriouslyC 1y ago
    I'm still pondering the clean break of the AI supremacy scenario. I think there are a few: 1. Fusion 2. Pharmaceuticals (think Ozempic economic benefit X 100) 3. Advanced weaponry (if warlike, don't build just conquer) 4. Advanced propaganda to destabilize other nations (again, if warlike) This is mostly off the cuff, given the success of AlphaEvolve and AlphaFold I don't think they're unreasonable.
    - grafmax 1y ago
      Let’s say any of these would take off. Let’s put aside the US’ inferior energy picture, industrial base, or key natural resource access that would block the US from making some of these a reality. What are these new techs going to be used for? Many of them: war. Both internationally and domestically - the US is already invading its own cities. Deepfakes are regularly shared among some social media echo chambers already, and LLM propaganda farms have anlready seen documented use. Even pharmaceutical breakthroughs will be used to extract higher prices for the shrinking number of Americans who can afford it. The trends are all here already with no sign of abating. AI isn’t going to address the structural cause of these problems: extreme wealth inequality. AI is a tool to make it worse. I think holding on to these beliefs about AI must give some people a sense of hope. But a hope based on reality and is stronger than one based in denial. The antidote I believe is solidarity founded on our shared vulnerability before this bleak future.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]

CuriouslyC 1y ago

I think prior to Trump, Europe could have been mediator to a benevolent China. Now the hawks are ascendant in Beijing. Trump has shown that his ego pushes him to escalate to try and show others who the "big man" is, this will not end well with China, and I'm not sure he's wise enough to accept that. Do you really prefer brutal serfdom to the AI supremacy scenario? From where I sit, people have mixed (trending positive) feelings about AI, and hard negative feelings about being in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. I'd like to understand your position here more.

grafmax 1y ago
I just don’t think the AI supremacy scenario is realistic. I think it ignores our current context and postulates a clean break, almost a kind of magical thinking to be frank. AI is likely to intensify current trends not suddenly subvert and reverse them. Palantir, deepfakes, LLM propaganda. The seeds are all here today. To think otherwise - that’s just not how human societies work, not history, none of it. AI is likely to continue to be weaponized, only more so as tech advances. What I found persuasive was the argument that this bubble could be worse than others due to the perceived geopolitical stakes by US leadership, plausibly leading to mass serfdom as our society implodes, based on the argument that we already have a version of serfdom today. I found that astute. I do NOT think that scenario is favorable - it just seems like the most likely future. I hold that we should view our situation with clear eyes so that we can make the best decision from where we stand. Thinking through this, what does that mean for how we should face our present moment? Eventually people will throw off their chains; our leadership is so incompetently invested in class war that the working class is going to continue to be squeezed and squeezed - until it pops. It’s a pattern familiar in history. The question in my mind is not if but when. And the sooner we get our collective act together the less painful it’s going to be. There’s some really bad stuff waiting for us round the bend. What should we do? The economy depends on us the serfs and soon-to-be serfs. It’s the workers who can take control of it and can shut it down with mass strikes. It’s only this in my view that can plausibly free us from our reckless leadership (which goes beyond the current administration) and the bleak future they are preparing for us.
- CuriouslyC 1y ago
  I'm still pondering the clean break of the AI supremacy scenario. I think there are a few: 1. Fusion 2. Pharmaceuticals (think Ozempic economic benefit X 100) 3. Advanced weaponry (if warlike, don't build just conquer) 4. Advanced propaganda to destabilize other nations (again, if warlike) This is mostly off the cuff, given the success of AlphaEvolve and AlphaFold I don't think they're unreasonable.
  - grafmax 1y ago
    Let’s say any of these would take off. Let’s put aside the US’ inferior energy picture, industrial base, or key natural resource access that would block the US from making some of these a reality. What are these new techs going to be used for? Many of them: war. Both internationally and domestically - the US is already invading its own cities. Deepfakes are regularly shared among some social media echo chambers already, and LLM propaganda farms have anlready seen documented use. Even pharmaceutical breakthroughs will be used to extract higher prices for the shrinking number of Americans who can afford it. The trends are all here already with no sign of abating. AI isn’t going to address the structural cause of these problems: extreme wealth inequality. AI is a tool to make it worse. I think holding on to these beliefs about AI must give some people a sense of hope. But a hope based on reality and is stronger than one based in denial. The antidote I believe is solidarity founded on our shared vulnerability before this bleak future.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]