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I'm just going to handle this one point: "Nowadays every time a human trader tries to beat the market by predicting short terms swings in prices, there is a co
by aqme28 14y ago
I'm just going to handle this one point:
"Nowadays every time a human trader tries to beat the market by predicting short terms swings in prices, there is a computer on the other side of his internet connection that is relying on much more information and even models of the human's own personality and biases to trade against him. This means that unless the human has inside information that is not accessible to the computer, (and I'm sure those who operate these computers try to feed them or make them infer the greatest amount of direct or indirect insider knowledge as possible ) it will tend to be impossible to beat the market."
This isn't accurate.
Computational trading uses models and algorithms. Even if the computer has all the information necessary, sometimes the models themselves have flaws. We're not at the point yet where the computers are making these perfect, predictive models. The humans who make them will make incorrect assumptions. We saw this issue big time in 2007, and we'll see it again.