There seems to be a lot of context missing from mainstream discussions of this. The broader context (afaict) is that after the trade war kicked off in April, th

There seems to be a lot of context missing from mainstream discussions of this. The broader context (afaict) is that after the trade war kicked off in April, the US and China agreed in Madrid in June to hold negotiations and otherwise not take new punitive measures. Last week, Department of Commerce BIS rolled out a new rule significantly expanding how and to whom export controls against China are applied, especially around semiconductors and other "dual-use" goods. China viewed this as a violation of the Madrid "trade ceasefire" and so this Thursday they turned around and unloaded the cannons of rare earth and other export controls, which if enacted would plausibly hobble the global economy and its AI capex sugar high. For whatever reason no one took this all too seriously until Friday when Trump flipped out on his truth social post, but the broader context is if anything more concerning because these escalations having been going on under the surface and now both sides are conveying they believe they have escalation dominance. https://www.dowjones.com/business-intelligence/blog/bis-50-rule-what-would-it-mean-for-businesses/ https://www.dowjones.com/business-intelligence/blog/bis-50-r... https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/09/new-bis-rule-expands-export-restrictions https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2025/09/new-bi... https://x.com/chorzempamartin/status/1976712782423712148 https://x.com/chorzempamartin/status/1976712782423712148 https://x.com/pstasiatech/status/1976693586571018586 https://x.com/pstasiatech/status/1976693586571018586