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Beyond the PS6, the answer is very clearly graphics generated in real time via a transformer model. I’d be absolutely shocked if in 10 years, all AAA games are
by aurareturn 1y ago
Beyond the PS6, the answer is very clearly graphics generated in real time via a transformer model.
I’d be absolutely shocked if in 10 years, all AAA games aren’t being rendered by a transformer. Google’s veo 3 is already extremely impressive. No way games will be rendered through traditional shaders in 2035.
- meindnoch 1y agoHow much money are you willing to bet?
- aurareturn 1y agoAll my money.
- CuriouslyC 1y agoEven in a future with generative UIs, those UIs will be composed from pre-created primitives just because it's faster and more consistent, there's literally no reason to re-create primitives every time.
- bigyabai 1y agoGo short Nintendo and Sony today. I'm the last one who's going to let my technical acumen get in the way of your mistake.
- aurareturn 1y agoWhy would gaming rendering using transformers lead to one shorting Nintendo and Sony?
- Certhas 1y agoThis _might_ be true, but it's utterly absurd to claim this is a certainty. The images rendered in a game need to accurately represent a very complex world state. Do we have any examples of Transformer based models doing something in this category? Can they do it in real-time? I could absolutely see something like rendering a simplified and stylised version and getting Transformers to fill in details. That's kind of a direct evolution from the upscaling approach described here, but end to end rendering from game state is far less obvious.
- aurareturn 1y agoI could absolutely see something like rendering a simplified and stylised version and getting Transformers to fill in details. That's kind of a direct evolution from the upscaling approach described here, but end to end rendering from game state is far less obvious. Sure. This could be a variation. You do a quick render that any GPU from 2025 can do and then make the frame hyper realistic through a transformer model. It's basically saying the same thing. The main rendering would be done by the transformer. Already in 2025, Google Veo 3 is generating pixels far more realistic than AAA games. I don't see why this wouldn't be the default rendering mode for AAA games in 2035. It's insanity to think it won't be. Veo3: https://aistudio.google.com/models/veo-3 https://aistudio.google.com/models/veo-3
- jsheard 1y ago> Already in 2025, Google Veo 3 is generating pixels far more realistic than AAA games. Traditional rendering techniques can also easily exceed the quality of AAA games if you don't impose strict time or latency constraints on them. Wake me up when a version of Veo is generating HD frames in less than 16 milliseconds, on consumer hardware, without batching, and then we can talk about whether that inevitably much smaller model is good enough to be a competitive game renderer.
- Certhas 1y agoWell you missed the point. You could call it prompt adherence. I need veo to generate the next frame in a few milliseconds, and correctly represent the position of all the cars in the scene (reacting to player input) reliably to very high accuracy. You conflate the challenge of generating realistic pixels with the challenge of generating realistic pixels that represent a highly detailed world state. So I don't think your argument is convincing or complete.
- LtdJorge 1y ago> Google Veo 3 is generating pixels far more realistic than AAA games That’s because games are "realtime", meaning with a tight frame-time budget. AI models are not (and are even running on multiple cards each costing 6 figures).
- lm28469 1y agoIs this before or after fully autonomous cars and agi? Both should be there in two years right? 10 years ago people were predicting VR would be everywhere, it flopped hard.
- aurareturn 1y agoI've been riding Waymo for years in San Francisco. 10 years ago, people were predicting that deep learning will change everything. And it did. Why just use one example (VR) and apply it to everything? Even then, a good portion of people did not think VR would be everywhere by now.
- Fade_Dance 1y agoBaidu Apollo Go is conpletes millions of rides a year as well, with expansions into Europe in the Middle East. In China they've been active for a long time - during COVID they were making autonomous deliveries. It is odd how many people don't realize how developed self-driving taxis are.
- oblio 1y agoThe future isn't evenly distributed. I think most people will consider self driving tech to be a thing when it's as widespread as TVs were, 20 years after their introduction.
- ksec 1y agoTV tech was ready, it just wasn't cheap enough. Self Driving is not wide spread not because of cost issue though. It is still not quite good enough for universal usage. Give it another 10 years I think we should be close, especially in places like Japan.
- SecretDreams 1y ago> I've been riding Waymo for years in San Francisco. Fully autonomous in select defined cities owned by big corps is probably a reasonable expectation. Fully autonomous in the hands of an owner applied to all driving conditions and working reliably is likely still a distant goal.
- fidotron 1y agoTransformer maybe not, but neural net yes. This is profoundly uncomfortable for a lot of people, but it's the very clear direction. The other major success of recent years not discussed much so far is gaussian splats, which tear up the established production pipeline again.
- aurareturn 1y agoNeural net is already being used via DLSS. Neural rendering is the next step. And finally, a full transformer based rendering pipeline. My guess anyway.
- wartywhoa23 1y agoThe future of gaming is the Grid-Independent Post-Silicon Chemo-Neural Convergence, the user will be injected with drugs designed by AI based on a loose prompt (AI generated as well, because humans have long lost the ability to formulate their intent) of the gameplay trip they must induce. Now that will be peak power efficiency and a real solution for the world where all electricity and silicon are hogged by AI farms. /s or not, you decide.
- pavlov 1y agoStanislaw Lem’s “The Futurological Congress” predicted this in 1971.
- wartywhoa23 1y agoFYI it's got an amazing film adaptation by Ari Folman in his 2013 "The Congress". The most emotionally striking film I've ever watched.
- speed_spread 1y agoThere will be a war between these biogamers and smart consoles that can play themselves.
- jayd16 1y agoIt's all about nerual spores https://youtu.be/NyvD_IC9QNw https://youtu.be/NyvD_IC9QNw
- MarCylinder 1y agoJust because it's possible doesn't mean it is clearly the answer. Is a transformer model truly likely to require less compute than current methods? We can't even run models like Veo 3 on consumer hardware at their current level of quality.
- aurareturn 1y agoI’d imagine AAA games will evolve to hundreds of billions of polygons and full path tracing. There is no realistic way to compute a scene like that on consumer hardware. The answer is clearly transformer based.
- CuriouslyC 1y agoThat's just not efficient. AAA games will use AI to pre-render assets, and use AI shaders to make stuff pop more, but on the fly asset generation will still be slow and produce low quality compared to offline asset generation. We might have a ShadCN style asset library that people use AI to tweak to produce "realtime" assets, but there will always be an offline core of templates at the very least.
- aurareturn 1y agoIt is likely a hell of a lot more efficient than path tracing a full ultra realistic game with billions of polygons.
- KeplerBoy 1y agoBe prepared to be shocked. This industry moves extremely slow.
- aurareturn 1y agoThey'll have to move fast when a small team can make graphically richer game than a big and slow AAA studio. Competition works wonders.