By 2020/2021 with the release of GPT-3, the trajectory of a lot of the most obvious product directions had already become clear. It was mainly a matter of model

By 2020/2021 with the release of GPT-3, the trajectory of a lot of the most obvious product directions had already become clear. It was mainly a matter of models becoming capable enough to unlock them. E.g. here's a forecast of 2021 to 2026 from 2021, over a year before ChatGPT was released. It hits a lot of the product beats we've come to see as we move into late 2025. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-... (The author of this is one of the authors of AI 2027: https://ai-2027.com/ https://ai-2027.com/) Or e.g. AI agents (this is a doc from about six months before ChatGPT was released: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpPnReyBC54KESiSn/optimality-is-the-tiger-and-agents-are-its-teeth https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpPnReyBC54KESiSn/optimality...)