The way I see it, world has too many GPUs, and they're too expensive, and it doesn't make sense by any measure. It started with crypto, which inflated the valu

The way I see it, world has too many GPUs, and they're too expensive, and it doesn't make sense by any measure. It started with crypto, which inflated the value GPUs actually have. Now, LLMs are doing that. It's still the same thing, and I think it will transform again. In a similar post in the past (3mo ago) I mentioned that this (ultra fancy GPUs) either evolves towards AR (augmented reality) or war (cyberwarfare), which are the most obvious next steps for "something-that-uses-fancy-GPUs". Let's see some recent developments: Apple dropping their AR glasses. This points towards a disinterest in augmented reality. It seems that's not a viable way to scale silicon supply chains. Sora stays right in the middle of these two possibilities, being a proto-holodeck of some sorts ("hey, help create a new simulated world with you in the middle"), and also possibly a cyberwarfare platform ("hey, look, we could produce misinformation in levels previously unseen!"). It could be that these are not exactly organic market bubbles, but instead, stealthy cyberwarfare spending, dating back to the crypto days (possibly earlier!). A burst, in this scenario, is just a way of moving money to these more shady goals without being too obvious about it. In this scenario, the burst is also somehow a controlled burst. It means performance numbers are likely to be not that predictive of what happens. I could also be wrong, but I don't think I am (it all circles back to silicon and geopolitical movements).