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>The slowdown in immigration means the US doesn’t need such robust job gains to keep the unemployment rate stable, suggesting the recent slide in payrolls may n

>The slowdown in immigration means the US doesn’t need such robust job gains to keep the unemployment rate stable, suggesting the recent slide in payrolls may not be so worrisome, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. If I'm reading this correctly, the argument being made is that U.S. population is declining now, so the job market shrinking doesn't matter. Isn't that...equally troubling...at least to the same people who are enacting the policies causing this?

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Fundamentally, if immigration declines, you do not need as many new jobs to keep the labor market in balance. The US population is barely declining at this point, so this wouldn't be an issue until wages climb from labor shortages beyond what the market can bear in each sector being discussed. Based on current US profit data, we have a long way to go, all over the economy (profits are unpaid wages, broadly speaking; lots of room to raise wages based on observable value transfer flows). There are labor "shortages" in the sense that wages are going up slowly (you see this in Amazon and Bank of America raising their minimum wage to the low $20s), which is new for an economic system and its participants unfamiliar with a population cohort of workers that is starting to shrink and will do so far into the future due to demographic dynamics. With that said, there is still a long way to go to create enough "labor shortage" (workers aging out of prime working age population cohort, reduced immigration) to push wages up to living wages for domestic workers (which is $25-$50/hr, depending on geography and target historical purchasing power parity). (~4M Boomers retire a year, ~11k/day, ~2M people 55+ die every year, about half of which are in the labor force; that means ~13k-14k workers leave the labor force every day in the US, ~400k/month) Citations: Postpandemic US Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45529166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45529166 - October 2025 A Major Bank [Bank of America] Is Upping Pay to $25 an Hour — And Amazon Is Coming Close Too - https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/bank-of-america-and-amazon-are-increasing-worker-pay/497306 https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/bank-of-america-a... - September 18th, 2025 Amazon spends $1B to increase pay and lower health care costs for US workers - https://apnews.com/article/amazon-pay-health-care-b84765504943e19aecdfc52705659372 https://apnews.com/article/amazon-pay-health-care-b847655049... - September 18th, 2025 Bank of America's $25/hour minimum wage jump flexes on everyone else - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45315804 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45315804 - September 2025 The US Population Could Shrink in 2025, for the first time ever - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45111228 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45111228 - September 2025 The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 - August 2025 Vermont May Be the Face of a Long-Term U.S. Labor Shortage - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38249820 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38249820 - November 2023 Dallas Fed blog post mentioned: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/1009 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/1009 MIT Living Wage Calculator - https://livingwage.mit.edu/ https://livingwage.mit.edu/ US Census: US & World Population Clock - https://www.census.gov/popclock/ https://www.census.gov/popclock/ HN Search: labor shortage - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=labor%20shortage&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... (think in systems)

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Fundamentally, if immigration declines, you do not need as many new jobs to keep the labor market in balance. The US population is barely declining at this point, so this wouldn't be an issue until wages climb from labor shortages beyond what the market can bear in each sector being discussed. Based on current US profit data, we have a long way to go, all over the economy (profits are unpaid wages, broadly speaking; lots of room to raise wages based on observable value transfer flows). There are labor "shortages" in the sense that wages are going up slowly (you see this in Amazon and Bank of America raising their minimum wage to the low $20s), which is new for an economic system and its participants unfamiliar with a population cohort of workers that is starting to shrink and will do so far into the future due to demographic dynamics. With that said, there is still a long way to go to create enough "labor shortage" (workers aging out of prime working age population cohort, reduced immigration) to push wages up to living wages for domestic workers (which is $25-$50/hr, depending on geography and target historical purchasing power parity). (~4M Boomers retire a year, ~11k/day, ~2M people 55+ die every year, about half of which are in the labor force; that means ~13k-14k workers leave the labor force every day in the US, ~400k/month) Citations: Postpandemic US Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45529166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45529166 - October 2025 A Major Bank [Bank of America] Is Upping Pay to $25 an Hour — And Amazon Is Coming Close Too - https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/bank-of-america-and-amazon-are-increasing-worker-pay/497306 https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/bank-of-america-a... - September 18th, 2025 Amazon spends $1B to increase pay and lower health care costs for US workers - https://apnews.com/article/amazon-pay-health-care-b84765504943e19aecdfc52705659372 https://apnews.com/article/amazon-pay-health-care-b847655049... - September 18th, 2025 Bank of America's $25/hour minimum wage jump flexes on everyone else - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45315804 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45315804 - September 2025 The US Population Could Shrink in 2025, for the first time ever - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45111228 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45111228 - September 2025 The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44866621 - August 2025 Vermont May Be the Face of a Long-Term U.S. Labor Shortage - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38249820 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38249820 - November 2023 Dallas Fed blog post mentioned: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/1009 https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/1009 MIT Living Wage Calculator - https://livingwage.mit.edu/ https://livingwage.mit.edu/ US Census: US & World Population Clock - https://www.census.gov/popclock/ https://www.census.gov/popclock/ HN Search: labor shortage - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=labor%20shortage&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... (think in systems)