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Yeah I spoke to my wife a few min ago about these deals and other indicators of a bubble. We’re updating our 401k’s and the old college fund brokerage account i

Yeah I spoke to my wife a few min ago about these deals and other indicators of a bubble. We’re updating our 401k’s and the old college fund brokerage account in the morning and have agreed to not make any additional changes until Jan 2027. Going to sit out a year and see what happens.

repeekad 1y ago
If we end up with inflation rather than a market crash, this could be quite costly? Gold is up 50% this year, which hype is more correct than the other?
- anon291 1y ago
  Gold is up because the dollar is down. Like guys... Gold is always worth the same. It's the other currencies that change in exchange rate with gold.
Fade_Dance 1y ago
These sorts of outlooks are notoriously hard to predict. Paul Tudor Jones (one of the most successful investors of our time) is of the mindset that if anything we are about to see equity appreciation far in excess of what we have seen for decades. https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/paul-tudor-jones-hedge-fund-billionaire-markets-more-explosive-than-1999/ https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/paul-tudor-jones-hedge-fund-b... If that's the case, right when you're looking to rebalance your portfolio, you're going to be looking at a much more difficult decision, having already missed out on price appreciation that would be quite useful in padding downside risk... Perhaps just step away from market cap weighted index funds as a long term adjustment. That's something that with a proper basic framework is advisable as a general portfolio management approach as well. (I have some SMLF - Smallcap Quality/Value, Berkshire, generic Global Equity exposure, not for outright returns, but to lower exposure to the concentrated passive market cap weighted indexes and diversify risk exposures). Trend Following exposure is a great add as well, since it is negatively correlated with risk assets in many macro/market regimes. Probably healthier to address your very real concern with modifying the long-term portfolio design rather than take a short-term market timing approach which is more of a negative expected value.
- lm28469 1y ago
  > These sorts of outlooks are notoriously hard to predict The gut feeling you're about to lose your life savings isn't worth it for a lot of people, when I had most of my money invested it was always in the back of my mind. I cashed out and bought land/started building a multi generational house. All doubts and fear disappeared overnight, I'm for sure losing money compared to going all in on Nvidia or even btc, but I don't need any mental gymnastics to rationalize my choice.
  - chasd00 1y ago
    > I cashed out and bought land/started building a multi generational house interestingly, my wife and I have discussed this a lot too. We have 20 acres in SE Oklahoma that we got a really good deal on during the pandemic, the land is unplatted and the realtor didn't know there was water and power service already setup by the previous owner. We want to build a small cabin/house over the next couple years. It's like a retirement backup plan, "if everything goes to hell we can still go sit on our land in OK and watch the sunset..."
    - anon291 1y ago
      > if everything goes to hell we can still go sit on our land in OK and watch the sunset..." No you can't.
      - Fade_Dance 1y ago
        The sweet nuclear summer glow from the back porch is an ambiance simply unequaled.
  - anon291 1y ago
    There has been no point in history where anyone lost their life savings investing in equities. Never touch your portfolio except to rebalance and only rebalance based on risk, not the market. When the market goes down, delete your banking apps and reset your passwords to random characters. Never sell
01100011 1y ago
Equities in the US are priced in dollars. If you think the dollar is going to lose value(because the government is led by people who have repeatedly told you this is their goal) then you expect stocks to rise commensurate with the devaluation of the dollar. I am not a bitcoiner or saying the USD is done for, but it seems clear that the dollar is weakened and will continue to weaken and this is a significant risk for folks like me with minimal exposure to stocks and precious metals.
- dh2022 1y ago
  Why would stocks raise with commensurate devaluation of the dollar? Stocks financial positions (assets / liabilities / cash flow) are most likely denominated in dollars..... If companies' financial position would be denominated in something else (gold / Yen / Euros / CNY) this comment would make more sense to me....
  - mattfca 1y ago
    you understand that costs rise on devaluation of the dollar right? as the usd devalues these stocks will also skyrocket profit/revenue
  - anon291 1y ago
    Companies values are what they are. Equities are essentially their own currency. The denomination of their conversion price doesn't change their value. The listed price on the nyse or NASDAQ can be thought of the exchange price between an equity and USD. If the USD loses half its value, the value of Microsoft does not change.
altacc 1y ago
I am for a medium risk profile and I've already started diversifying. A lot of major "global" or "index" tracking funds are now majority comprised of holdings in Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and also Tesla. I've seen many supposedly non-tech funds where about 50-75% of their portfolio are linked to this bubble. Sometimes the holdings aren't clear if the fund invests in other funds. As an individual investor I won't be able to react fast enough to a crash, so am being proactive with moving investments so that no more than half is exposed. Will obviously keep an eye on things to reduce that if it looks wise.

repeekad 1y ago

If we end up with inflation rather than a market crash, this could be quite costly? Gold is up 50% this year, which hype is more correct than the other?

anon291 1y ago
Gold is up because the dollar is down. Like guys... Gold is always worth the same. It's the other currencies that change in exchange rate with gold.

Fade_Dance 1y ago

These sorts of outlooks are notoriously hard to predict. Paul Tudor Jones (one of the most successful investors of our time) is of the mindset that if anything we are about to see equity appreciation far in excess of what we have seen for decades. https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/paul-tudor-jones-hedge-fund-billionaire-markets-more-explosive-than-1999/ https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/paul-tudor-jones-hedge-fund-b... If that's the case, right when you're looking to rebalance your portfolio, you're going to be looking at a much more difficult decision, having already missed out on price appreciation that would be quite useful in padding downside risk... Perhaps just step away from market cap weighted index funds as a long term adjustment. That's something that with a proper basic framework is advisable as a general portfolio management approach as well. (I have some SMLF - Smallcap Quality/Value, Berkshire, generic Global Equity exposure, not for outright returns, but to lower exposure to the concentrated passive market cap weighted indexes and diversify risk exposures). Trend Following exposure is a great add as well, since it is negatively correlated with risk assets in many macro/market regimes. Probably healthier to address your very real concern with modifying the long-term portfolio design rather than take a short-term market timing approach which is more of a negative expected value.

lm28469 1y ago
> These sorts of outlooks are notoriously hard to predict The gut feeling you're about to lose your life savings isn't worth it for a lot of people, when I had most of my money invested it was always in the back of my mind. I cashed out and bought land/started building a multi generational house. All doubts and fear disappeared overnight, I'm for sure losing money compared to going all in on Nvidia or even btc, but I don't need any mental gymnastics to rationalize my choice.
- chasd00 1y ago
  > I cashed out and bought land/started building a multi generational house interestingly, my wife and I have discussed this a lot too. We have 20 acres in SE Oklahoma that we got a really good deal on during the pandemic, the land is unplatted and the realtor didn't know there was water and power service already setup by the previous owner. We want to build a small cabin/house over the next couple years. It's like a retirement backup plan, "if everything goes to hell we can still go sit on our land in OK and watch the sunset..."
  - anon291 1y ago
    > if everything goes to hell we can still go sit on our land in OK and watch the sunset..." No you can't.
    - Fade_Dance 1y ago
      The sweet nuclear summer glow from the back porch is an ambiance simply unequaled.
- anon291 1y ago
  There has been no point in history where anyone lost their life savings investing in equities. Never touch your portfolio except to rebalance and only rebalance based on risk, not the market. When the market goes down, delete your banking apps and reset your passwords to random characters. Never sell

01100011 1y ago

Equities in the US are priced in dollars. If you think the dollar is going to lose value(because the government is led by people who have repeatedly told you this is their goal) then you expect stocks to rise commensurate with the devaluation of the dollar. I am not a bitcoiner or saying the USD is done for, but it seems clear that the dollar is weakened and will continue to weaken and this is a significant risk for folks like me with minimal exposure to stocks and precious metals.

dh2022 1y ago
Why would stocks raise with commensurate devaluation of the dollar? Stocks financial positions (assets / liabilities / cash flow) are most likely denominated in dollars..... If companies' financial position would be denominated in something else (gold / Yen / Euros / CNY) this comment would make more sense to me....
- mattfca 1y ago
  you understand that costs rise on devaluation of the dollar right? as the usd devalues these stocks will also skyrocket profit/revenue
- anon291 1y ago
  Companies values are what they are. Equities are essentially their own currency. The denomination of their conversion price doesn't change their value. The listed price on the nyse or NASDAQ can be thought of the exchange price between an equity and USD. If the USD loses half its value, the value of Microsoft does not change.

altacc 1y ago

I am for a medium risk profile and I've already started diversifying. A lot of major "global" or "index" tracking funds are now majority comprised of holdings in Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and also Tesla. I've seen many supposedly non-tech funds where about 50-75% of their portfolio are linked to this bubble. Sometimes the holdings aren't clear if the fund invests in other funds. As an individual investor I won't be able to react fast enough to a crash, so am being proactive with moving investments so that no more than half is exposed. Will obviously keep an eye on things to reduce that if it looks wise.