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I think you’re making my point without realizing it. If you are skeptical but also not willing to place a bet, you shouldn’t say “AI is overvalued” because you

I think you’re making my point without realizing it. If you are skeptical but also not willing to place a bet, you shouldn’t say “AI is overvalued” because you don’t actually believe it. You should say, “I think it might be overvalued, but I’m not really sure? And I don’t have enough experience in markets or confidence to make a bet on it, so I will go with everyone else’s sentiment and make the ‘safe’ bet of being long the market. But like… something feels weird to me about how much money is being poured into this? But I can’t say for sure whether it is overvalued or not.” Those are two wildly different things.

ghaff 1y ago
Not at all. I may think $TECH is overvalued but some companies may well make it out the other side, some aspects of the $TECH may play out (or not), and the bubble may pop in 1 year or 5. So the sensible process may be to invest in broader indexes and let things play out at the more micro level (that may not be possible to invest in anyway). I certainly had unease about the dot-com market and should have shifted more investments to the conservative side. But I made the "‘safe’ bet of being long the market" even after things started going south. FWIW, I do think AI is overvalued for the relatively near term. But I'm not sure what to do about that other than being fairly conservatively invested which makes sense for me at this point anyway.