4 ms·

You are right, but also expect some high noble goals from russian leadership. It was supposed to be an easy land grab, a very valuable land grab full of heavy i

You are right, but also expect some high noble goals from russian leadership. It was supposed to be an easy land grab, a very valuable land grab full of heavy industry and literal gigatons of natural gas. There was never a rich greedy person who didn't want more. And lets not forget they weren't that far from success in first days - if they won Hostomel airport, Kyiv would probably fall and with it the rest would be a domino effect. Especially given how russian elites are just several pyramids structured (and behaving) exactly like typical mafia. They only go for themselves, screw the rest. They only think now and maybe tomorrow, long term planning ain't a strong point of decision makers to be polite. Nihilism all around, to the very top. The whole war became purely an ego game, emotional stupidity of little boys who simply refuse to lose face (and thus life and legacy) even when colossal fuckup they created is right in their faces all the time. But is is actually colossal fuckup to them? No it isn't, they get some international hate but plight of commoners is completely irrelevant to them, and who cares when you still have billions all around the globe. Also don't underestimate the capacity of russian population to just quietly accept brutal oppression and go on, its not something west can fully grok. Life of a human being has no value there, that's still the case as it was.,

Someone 1y ago
> And lets not forget they weren't that far from success in first days - if they won Hostomel airport, Kyiv would probably fall and with it the rest would be a domino effect. I think the war would have been very short if Zelensky hadn’t rejected the USA offer to evacuate him, asking for ammunition instead. > But is is actually colossal fuckup to them? No it isn't, they get some international hate but plight of commoners is completely irrelevant to them Maybe it isn’t a colossal fuckup to them _yet_. The plight of commoners was irrelevant to the tsars, too, until it became very relevant, and then, it was too late for them.
- rzwitserloot 1y ago
  My comment originally contained something along the lines of "When the invasion of hostomel failed, they should have ended their operation on the spot" but that felt too presumptuous. But perhaps it did inform my sense that this war is such a shambles. Because of what Moscow must be thinking about what could have been and how close they came. I disagree with the 'plight of commoners' comment, though. This war is being paid by the oligarchs. The printers are printing rubles nonstop and sending them to the commoners. It's not like the russian economy is creating that value (quite the opposite; it's bleeding value). That means the massive amounts of rubles that the oligarchs hold are worth way, way less now. Also a bunch of them have flown out windows. The plight of the oligarchy that has supported this regime for decades doesn't seem "irrelevant to the tsars" to nearly the same level. There's the sense that the regime has shown they can screw over the oligarchy without repercussion and that can be considered 'a success', but I'm guessing there will be repercussions. Just, now right now, the populace presumably likes the situation partly because they are now much richer (at the cost of the oligarchy) than before. But once this war ends, or drags on too long and the economy collapses due to it - I think we're going to be back to this being a total failure of an operation for the tsars.
rzwitserloot 1y ago
important context: That gas is theoretical/unproduced. You need to dig lots of wells first. Even there I don't really see it. I agree that it was intended as an easy land grab (and I guess, after Hostomel failed, they should have pulled the plug on the SMO then and there and accept the consequences). But the reasons don't make sense. In particular, that gas thing: Gas is on the way out. Clearly so. Even during the cuban missile crisis, with everything that was going on, the flow through the pipelines of russian gas to west germany never stopped. It wasn't even considered. The west totally distrusted russia for good reason. They spent 20 years being a reliable supplier to build up that trust and they finally managed to get it. And then they toss it out the window like it was nothing even before the 2022 Ukraine invasion. I think the reason is clear: EU keeps saying it wants to wean itself off of gas in the next 15 years or so. What possible value does this trust relation have if the EU is no longer interested in buying gas at all? Then either way Russia's grab is nonsensical: * Either they understand gas's future (as in, 10 to 30 years from now) is highly limited, and this land grab never made any sense; it won't come online in time and the SMO further incentivises EU to divest. Even if the SMO worked out, there'd be some incentive (it did not work and the EU massively divested. They still buy russian gas but are going at an astronomical pace compared to 1970-2010 reliance on russian gas which increased even in the middle of a cold war and crises!) * Or they do not believe it'll end, in which case that trust relationship is very important, in which case they screwed up the plan when they used their relationship with the EU as supplier-of-gas a bargaining chip even before the failed SMO. Either way Russia messed this up badly. Add to that: The ones essentially paying the bill for this war are the oligarchs. The relative rates of richness between the russian plebs and the oligarchs has swung massively towards the plebians. The government is printing rubles nonstop and the average salary of russians has skyrocketed. That, obviously, 'costs' the oligarchs. Their rubles are worth far, far less. Already today and that won't change anytime soon. Possibly the oligarchs were assuming the SMO would work out, but, "the russian elites dont care and wanted this" - okay, but that means they are idiots then, as this did not at all work out in their favour. I think it's a lot simpler: Putin is in control, not the oligarchs. Haven't been for a while. As he ages he wants to leave a mark and thinks his reign was best summarized as "carefully shepherding Russia through its terminal decline, down from the days of the USSR" and didn't like the look of that epitaph... and massively underestimated the difficulty of the SMO. There's nothing more to it.

Someone 1y ago

> And lets not forget they weren't that far from success in first days - if they won Hostomel airport, Kyiv would probably fall and with it the rest would be a domino effect. I think the war would have been very short if Zelensky hadn’t rejected the USA offer to evacuate him, asking for ammunition instead. > But is is actually colossal fuckup to them? No it isn't, they get some international hate but plight of commoners is completely irrelevant to them Maybe it isn’t a colossal fuckup to them _yet_. The plight of commoners was irrelevant to the tsars, too, until it became very relevant, and then, it was too late for them.

rzwitserloot 1y ago
My comment originally contained something along the lines of "When the invasion of hostomel failed, they should have ended their operation on the spot" but that felt too presumptuous. But perhaps it did inform my sense that this war is such a shambles. Because of what Moscow must be thinking about what could have been and how close they came. I disagree with the 'plight of commoners' comment, though. This war is being paid by the oligarchs. The printers are printing rubles nonstop and sending them to the commoners. It's not like the russian economy is creating that value (quite the opposite; it's bleeding value). That means the massive amounts of rubles that the oligarchs hold are worth way, way less now. Also a bunch of them have flown out windows. The plight of the oligarchy that has supported this regime for decades doesn't seem "irrelevant to the tsars" to nearly the same level. There's the sense that the regime has shown they can screw over the oligarchy without repercussion and that can be considered 'a success', but I'm guessing there will be repercussions. Just, now right now, the populace presumably likes the situation partly because they are now much richer (at the cost of the oligarchy) than before. But once this war ends, or drags on too long and the economy collapses due to it - I think we're going to be back to this being a total failure of an operation for the tsars.

rzwitserloot 1y ago

important context: That gas is theoretical/unproduced. You need to dig lots of wells first. Even there I don't really see it. I agree that it was intended as an easy land grab (and I guess, after Hostomel failed, they should have pulled the plug on the SMO then and there and accept the consequences). But the reasons don't make sense. In particular, that gas thing: Gas is on the way out. Clearly so. Even during the cuban missile crisis, with everything that was going on, the flow through the pipelines of russian gas to west germany never stopped. It wasn't even considered. The west totally distrusted russia for good reason. They spent 20 years being a reliable supplier to build up that trust and they finally managed to get it. And then they toss it out the window like it was nothing even before the 2022 Ukraine invasion. I think the reason is clear: EU keeps saying it wants to wean itself off of gas in the next 15 years or so. What possible value does this trust relation have if the EU is no longer interested in buying gas at all? Then either way Russia's grab is nonsensical: * Either they understand gas's future (as in, 10 to 30 years from now) is highly limited, and this land grab never made any sense; it won't come online in time and the SMO further incentivises EU to divest. Even if the SMO worked out, there'd be some incentive (it did not work and the EU massively divested. They still buy russian gas but are going at an astronomical pace compared to 1970-2010 reliance on russian gas which increased even in the middle of a cold war and crises!) * Or they do not believe it'll end, in which case that trust relationship is very important, in which case they screwed up the plan when they used their relationship with the EU as supplier-of-gas a bargaining chip even before the failed SMO. Either way Russia messed this up badly. Add to that: The ones essentially paying the bill for this war are the oligarchs. The relative rates of richness between the russian plebs and the oligarchs has swung massively towards the plebians. The government is printing rubles nonstop and the average salary of russians has skyrocketed. That, obviously, 'costs' the oligarchs. Their rubles are worth far, far less. Already today and that won't change anytime soon. Possibly the oligarchs were assuming the SMO would work out, but, "the russian elites dont care and wanted this" - okay, but that means they are idiots then, as this did not at all work out in their favour. I think it's a lot simpler: Putin is in control, not the oligarchs. Haven't been for a while. As he ages he wants to leave a mark and thinks his reign was best summarized as "carefully shepherding Russia through its terminal decline, down from the days of the USSR" and didn't like the look of that epitaph... and massively underestimated the difficulty of the SMO. There's nothing more to it.