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>if I could go back in time and paint them a picture of how the situation is today, they'd jump out the window Debatable. The war itself is basically a massive

>if I could go back in time and paint them a picture of how the situation is today, they'd jump out the window Debatable. The war itself is basically a massively failure, but it completely stabilized the regime. Whereas 5 years ago there were clear questions about what would happen after Putin died, ZOV-logic is enough to power the regime for the next 10 years. 20 years of careful building of liberal oppositions by highlighting corruption is now out of the window. FBK, Kats, Volkov, etc are now all abroad with no chance to return; literally no one gives a fuck about corruption that's not military related. The new "liberal" party that replaced Navalniy & Co (Noviye Lyudi) is basically only liberal in economics. The only thing that will decide if Russia ends up winning or losing in the long term is whether the "Pivot to Asia" strategy that they basically were forced to take will end up working.

rzwitserloot 1y ago
> Debatable This war either ends eventually or we move back to 'there are clear questions about what is going to happen to the stability of the regime' territory. And when it ends we... also move back to that. Probably, anyway. I have no crystal ball and you make a good point; the regime has enjoyed nearly 4 years out of stability out of this, that's a win of some sorts.
- myrmidon 1y ago
  There is another aspect that Moscov gets out of the whole shitshow: Economical integration/growth/success of an EU-aligned Ukraine is slowed down. I believe falling behind former Sovjet countries economically is a continuous pain point for the Putin regime; but getting overtaken by Polish, Slovenian or Czech former "compatriots" is one thing (those being much closer to Europe), but the same happening with Ukraine (or Belarus) would be a whole other story, and seen as complete failure of the regime domestically. Preventing that is a worthwile outcome for Putins government by itself.

rzwitserloot 1y ago

> Debatable This war either ends eventually or we move back to 'there are clear questions about what is going to happen to the stability of the regime' territory. And when it ends we... also move back to that. Probably, anyway. I have no crystal ball and you make a good point; the regime has enjoyed nearly 4 years out of stability out of this, that's a win of some sorts.

myrmidon 1y ago
There is another aspect that Moscov gets out of the whole shitshow: Economical integration/growth/success of an EU-aligned Ukraine is slowed down. I believe falling behind former Sovjet countries economically is a continuous pain point for the Putin regime; but getting overtaken by Polish, Slovenian or Czech former "compatriots" is one thing (those being much closer to Europe), but the same happening with Ukraine (or Belarus) would be a whole other story, and seen as complete failure of the regime domestically. Preventing that is a worthwile outcome for Putins government by itself.