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We’re definitely in the pre-war era. It’s like when Britain was trying to negotiate with Hitler while rearming in the background. China is going to attack pear

We’re definitely in the pre-war era. It’s like when Britain was trying to negotiate with Hitler while rearming in the background. China is going to attack pearl harbour in the hopes that a sudden unexpected attack will cripple the pacific fleet and knock America out of the war. It won’t work, we’ll go through hell again. But every time these places think it will work, and they don’t factor in the fact that they are completely reliant on foreign trade for their economy. Russia is pretty much in war economy now, they have no choice but to escalate and invade Eastern Europe. They have no chance of winning, but that never matters to crazy people.

kelipso 1y ago
It’s interesting how there is this pre-war vibe going on but when you describe the actual predictions, it seems extremely unlikely. It feels more like a phenomenon created through the internet than actual pre-war anything.
- torben-friis 1y ago
  The china thing is very out there - but I’d see them going for the push in Taiwan and things escalating there. My main concern as a European is Russia. It is a historical truth that once a country goes through the process of starting a war economy it doesn’t usually dissolve or sit idle - conflict is going to happen there. For America, watching from the outside, a civil war seems much more likely than direct war with china.
  - scarmig 1y ago
    A war with China will do massive damage to the European and world economies, though, even if Europe stays entirely out of it. China more or less stops exporting (and importing); the economies of South Korea and Japan immediately contract 25% or more; Russia faces massive and nearly infinite demand for its resources from China; oil states in the Middle East would face massive price volatility followed by a collapse in demand and a loss of 50% of their government revenues; and every two bit nation in the world would decide now is the time to pursue revanchist feuds since everyone who could object is otherwise occupied.
  - psunavy03 1y ago
    For America, watching from the inside, this is highly unlikely. The worst case scenario for what's going on right now would be something more akin to the Troubles in Ireland than a full-on civil war for any number of reasons.
- swat535 1y ago
  I don't know about parent's prediction regarding China but a major war between Israel and Iran is upcoming this year or early next year, which will involve United States by definition. We are likely in pre-war era right now, dismissing it as "internet phenomenon" is shortsighted.
34679 1y ago
>they are completely reliant on foreign trade for their economy. If China cut trade ties with the US, which country do you think will still be able to produce everything it needs? People like to think of China as just a source of cheap consumer goods, but we are much more reliant on them than that. Every power plant has Chinese components that keep it functioning. Every farm, automobile, communication network, aircraft, factory.. they all rely on Chinese components and equipment. The list touches every facet of modern American life. China could make the US unrecognizable within 5 years, without ever launching a single missile
- boringg 1y ago
  It goes both ways.
  - LexiMax 1y ago
    Apropos what?
    - boringg 1y ago
      The dependency on the relationship - it was by design that it is a mutual dependency.
      - LexiMax 1y ago
        I think that was the idea, but in practice I think that China successfully outmaneuvered the United States by taking advantage of the short-sighted greed of our businesses leaders. They are now the manufacturing capital of the world, and our position of being the preeminent consumer in the world lasts only as long as our consumers can afford to purchase things.
        boringg 1y ago
        These are long lived relationships -- they may have outmaneueverd at some points, and also restrained at others. China runs a precarious political situation which is only as strong as the country is economically stable - which currently it is veering to unstable. It goes without saying the US is also in a precarious situation - it is much more publicized due to the nature of the US airing all its dirty laundry publicly.
Boogie_Man 1y ago
This might be the wrong place to ask these questions, but this comment caused me to think about the situation. Russia and/or Putin has been sold to me as "crazy" since the 90s. I don't really believe that, and presume it's because it's an explanation for their behavior which doesn't require America to consider how seriously we've been dicking over Russia. This is not to say Russia wouldn't dick us if they could (they most certainly would). The Ukrainian war has been presented to me as a mad man trying to take over the world a la Hitler. I think it's more complicated and concerns about NATO expansion, the US Dollar as the world reserve currency, and Russia controlling warm water naval access make sense as motivations for the war, even though they are also be tools of propaganda. It seems clear that Russia believed they had the opportunity to establish themselves as a great power once again alongside China and the US in the "new multipolar world" they harp about. My question is this: In light of this information, why has the Ukrainian conflict become seemingly (based on resources allocated and increasingly provocative drone incursions into NATO territories) existential for Russia? Are the us sanctions crippling long term without Ukrankan resources? Why are they willing to sacrifice so much if they already have Crimea free and clear?
- pmontra 1y ago
  Because they thought they could take Ukraine in one week, so why not? And when they realized the mistake it's impossible to back down without losing face and life by the hand on the next leadership. So yes, it's existential, but not for Russia the country. Frankly who cared about Russia and who will care about it again if it goes back into its borders?
- tremon 1y ago
  Putin is a typical strong man/tribal leader: his support depends on his machismo (it's something Trump tries very hard to emulate with his constant punching down). The problem is that strong men don't lose wars. Putin knows that conceding defeat in Ukraine will bring about his downfall in Russia.
- einarfd 1y ago
  The current Russian regime believes in sphere of influence, and they view Ukraine, the baltics, at least some parts eastern europe, and probably more as a natural part of their sphere of influence. This crashes with the western view where countries and populations have a right to self determination. Some of the countries that Russia want to fall under their sphere are also members of the EU, which make this even more problematic. Seen from Moscow, EU and western countries have encroached on their turf and this is a problem for them. Seen from the western side, this is wrong, and if Russia is such a bad neighbor that its neighbor join defensive alliances to get out from under their thumb, that is their own fault, and the way the world is supposed to work. Russia also has a geographic vulnerability where there is no geographic chokepoints from at least Poland and straight to Moscow, which historically has given Russia problems. Give this, there is actually a rational for what Russia is doing, personally I think it is a bad rational, but there is logic in the madness, even if from my perspective, it is based on a deeply wrong world view.
Dig1t 1y ago
>no choice but to escalate and invade Eastern Europe. They can barely hold on to Eastern Ukraine, them taking the entirety of Ukraine is not likely at all given that they have had to slog for many years just to take and hold one small part of the country. If they can’t even take all of Ukraine, I don’t think it’s very likely they try to attack any more of Europe.
- la_mezcla 1y ago
  Or one could look it the the other way around: the 50 countries, more or less, (Europe + US), that fight with the hands of Ukraine, as proxies, still haven't been able to defeat ONE Russia. And despite of 23k of sanctions they've imposed on Russia, which is the absolute record by a looooooong margin on its own.
la_mezcla 1y ago
Europe is pretty much in war economy now, they have no choice but to escalate and invade Russia as NATO. They have no chance of winning, but that never matters to crazy people. And you conveniently forgot that Hitler was from Germany - Europe. And he was the one who invaded USSR - Russia. Not the other way around. As well as he, indirectly, invaded China - by the help of Japan.

kelipso 1y ago

It’s interesting how there is this pre-war vibe going on but when you describe the actual predictions, it seems extremely unlikely. It feels more like a phenomenon created through the internet than actual pre-war anything.

torben-friis 1y ago
The china thing is very out there - but I’d see them going for the push in Taiwan and things escalating there. My main concern as a European is Russia. It is a historical truth that once a country goes through the process of starting a war economy it doesn’t usually dissolve or sit idle - conflict is going to happen there. For America, watching from the outside, a civil war seems much more likely than direct war with china.
- scarmig 1y ago
  A war with China will do massive damage to the European and world economies, though, even if Europe stays entirely out of it. China more or less stops exporting (and importing); the economies of South Korea and Japan immediately contract 25% or more; Russia faces massive and nearly infinite demand for its resources from China; oil states in the Middle East would face massive price volatility followed by a collapse in demand and a loss of 50% of their government revenues; and every two bit nation in the world would decide now is the time to pursue revanchist feuds since everyone who could object is otherwise occupied.
- psunavy03 1y ago
  For America, watching from the inside, this is highly unlikely. The worst case scenario for what's going on right now would be something more akin to the Troubles in Ireland than a full-on civil war for any number of reasons.
swat535 1y ago
I don't know about parent's prediction regarding China but a major war between Israel and Iran is upcoming this year or early next year, which will involve United States by definition. We are likely in pre-war era right now, dismissing it as "internet phenomenon" is shortsighted.

34679 1y ago

>they are completely reliant on foreign trade for their economy. If China cut trade ties with the US, which country do you think will still be able to produce everything it needs? People like to think of China as just a source of cheap consumer goods, but we are much more reliant on them than that. Every power plant has Chinese components that keep it functioning. Every farm, automobile, communication network, aircraft, factory.. they all rely on Chinese components and equipment. The list touches every facet of modern American life. China could make the US unrecognizable within 5 years, without ever launching a single missile

boringg 1y ago
It goes both ways.
- LexiMax 1y ago
  Apropos what?
  - boringg 1y ago
    The dependency on the relationship - it was by design that it is a mutual dependency.
    - LexiMax 1y ago
      I think that was the idea, but in practice I think that China successfully outmaneuvered the United States by taking advantage of the short-sighted greed of our businesses leaders. They are now the manufacturing capital of the world, and our position of being the preeminent consumer in the world lasts only as long as our consumers can afford to purchase things.
      - boringg 1y ago
        These are long lived relationships -- they may have outmaneueverd at some points, and also restrained at others. China runs a precarious political situation which is only as strong as the country is economically stable - which currently it is veering to unstable. It goes without saying the US is also in a precarious situation - it is much more publicized due to the nature of the US airing all its dirty laundry publicly.

Boogie_Man 1y ago

This might be the wrong place to ask these questions, but this comment caused me to think about the situation. Russia and/or Putin has been sold to me as "crazy" since the 90s. I don't really believe that, and presume it's because it's an explanation for their behavior which doesn't require America to consider how seriously we've been dicking over Russia. This is not to say Russia wouldn't dick us if they could (they most certainly would). The Ukrainian war has been presented to me as a mad man trying to take over the world a la Hitler. I think it's more complicated and concerns about NATO expansion, the US Dollar as the world reserve currency, and Russia controlling warm water naval access make sense as motivations for the war, even though they are also be tools of propaganda. It seems clear that Russia believed they had the opportunity to establish themselves as a great power once again alongside China and the US in the "new multipolar world" they harp about. My question is this: In light of this information, why has the Ukrainian conflict become seemingly (based on resources allocated and increasingly provocative drone incursions into NATO territories) existential for Russia? Are the us sanctions crippling long term without Ukrankan resources? Why are they willing to sacrifice so much if they already have Crimea free and clear?

pmontra 1y ago
Because they thought they could take Ukraine in one week, so why not? And when they realized the mistake it's impossible to back down without losing face and life by the hand on the next leadership. So yes, it's existential, but not for Russia the country. Frankly who cared about Russia and who will care about it again if it goes back into its borders?
tremon 1y ago
Putin is a typical strong man/tribal leader: his support depends on his machismo (it's something Trump tries very hard to emulate with his constant punching down). The problem is that strong men don't lose wars. Putin knows that conceding defeat in Ukraine will bring about his downfall in Russia.
einarfd 1y ago
The current Russian regime believes in sphere of influence, and they view Ukraine, the baltics, at least some parts eastern europe, and probably more as a natural part of their sphere of influence. This crashes with the western view where countries and populations have a right to self determination. Some of the countries that Russia want to fall under their sphere are also members of the EU, which make this even more problematic. Seen from Moscow, EU and western countries have encroached on their turf and this is a problem for them. Seen from the western side, this is wrong, and if Russia is such a bad neighbor that its neighbor join defensive alliances to get out from under their thumb, that is their own fault, and the way the world is supposed to work. Russia also has a geographic vulnerability where there is no geographic chokepoints from at least Poland and straight to Moscow, which historically has given Russia problems. Give this, there is actually a rational for what Russia is doing, personally I think it is a bad rational, but there is logic in the madness, even if from my perspective, it is based on a deeply wrong world view.

Dig1t 1y ago

>no choice but to escalate and invade Eastern Europe. They can barely hold on to Eastern Ukraine, them taking the entirety of Ukraine is not likely at all given that they have had to slog for many years just to take and hold one small part of the country. If they can’t even take all of Ukraine, I don’t think it’s very likely they try to attack any more of Europe.

la_mezcla 1y ago
Or one could look it the the other way around: the 50 countries, more or less, (Europe + US), that fight with the hands of Ukraine, as proxies, still haven't been able to defeat ONE Russia. And despite of 23k of sanctions they've imposed on Russia, which is the absolute record by a looooooong margin on its own.

la_mezcla 1y ago

Europe is pretty much in war economy now, they have no choice but to escalate and invade Russia as NATO. They have no chance of winning, but that never matters to crazy people. And you conveniently forgot that Hitler was from Germany - Europe. And he was the one who invaded USSR - Russia. Not the other way around. As well as he, indirectly, invaded China - by the help of Japan.