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> They were laughed at and shouted down, as doomsayers That's a fallacy. With billions of humans, given any doom, someone was there to sling it. Because ther
by ajross 1y ago
> They were laughed at and shouted down, as doomsayers
That's a fallacy. With billions of humans, given any doom, someone was there to sling it. Because there is always someone slinging doom. You can't listen to all the doomslinging, because to first approximation it's all wrong.
The truth is we'll never know whether the doomslinging cranks were just cranks or geniuses. But the fact that they haven't gone on to further heights of analytical magic tells me they were probably just lucky cranks.
It's the same reason that every four years we learn about a douglas squirrel or whatever that has predicted the last 14 presidential elections. Because we don't hear about all the critters that didn't.
- smsm42 1y agoTrue, some of it just random. But some is not. There were reasons why that boom was unsustainable, and they weren't hidden. One can argue nobody knew how and when exactly the break will happen - maybe now, maybe in a week, maybe in 5 years - but it's not possible that everybody gets 0% no doc loans on any house and it continues forever. To figure out the intricacies of why it happened and how it broke, you need a lot of knowledge. To know it's not normal and there would be a point where it has to change - you don't need that much, and many people did. Discounting them as random cranks is not right.