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> The amount of lithium it would take to handle an unusually cloudy week would be astronomical. I don't think it's astronomical. At most a few dozen kg per per

> The amount of lithium it would take to handle an unusually cloudy week would be astronomical. I don't think it's astronomical. At most a few dozen kg per person. Compare that to the amount of steel that we produce per person just to give everybody access to cars! And it's certainly not more astronomical than the amount of natural gas that we already extract, transport, and burn for electricity. We have built big things in the past, there's no reason we can't do it again today. In fact, it's going to be far easier today because our tech is better and our factories' productivity is so much higher than in the past.

legitster 1y ago
During the height of the industrial revolution, humans were able to double steel production roughly every 6 years. We've doubled global lithium production in the last 3! Even so, if you do the math about how much lithium we need to get to a few dozen kg per person given that rate of growth, we're still looking at 20-30 years. (There are also a lot of elemental and labor bottlenecks). So you're right that it's not astronomical! We just might have speedier expectations for when it's achievable.
- NewJazz 1y ago
  Well, lithium is not the only option. For fixed storage, sodium is more and more feasible everyday.
  - epistasis 1y ago
    I think the underlying point is that it production capacity, no matter the tech, takes time to grow. It's not lithium that's the bottleneck, it's building a big enough supply chain to get the lithium into battery factories. It's about building enough factories. For the particulars of sodium, it's similar enough to lithium that factories for one can be repurposed into factories for the other without a total rebuild or even total retooling. There are also many different lithium chemistries that are economical and feasible, and we see big swings in chemistries when there's a temporary supply block for, say, cobalt. So perhaps sodium would add a bit more to that flexibility, actually... However even when lithium was at its maximum in 2023, nearly 6x more expensive than it is now, it wasn't the main blocker for expanding battery production capacity (Sorry for the rambling, when I get some coffee in me sometimes it just pours out!)
bryanlarsen 1y ago
A few dozen kg is quite generous. There's 160 g of lithium in a kWh of lithium batteries. A typical household uses less than 30kWh per day. At 2.6 people per household, let's round to 10 kWh per person per day. So 1.6kg of lithium per day, 11kg for a week. But you don't need that much battery -- solar produces power even on cloudy days.

legitster 1y ago

During the height of the industrial revolution, humans were able to double steel production roughly every 6 years. We've doubled global lithium production in the last 3! Even so, if you do the math about how much lithium we need to get to a few dozen kg per person given that rate of growth, we're still looking at 20-30 years. (There are also a lot of elemental and labor bottlenecks). So you're right that it's not astronomical! We just might have speedier expectations for when it's achievable.

NewJazz 1y ago
Well, lithium is not the only option. For fixed storage, sodium is more and more feasible everyday.
- epistasis 1y ago
  I think the underlying point is that it production capacity, no matter the tech, takes time to grow. It's not lithium that's the bottleneck, it's building a big enough supply chain to get the lithium into battery factories. It's about building enough factories. For the particulars of sodium, it's similar enough to lithium that factories for one can be repurposed into factories for the other without a total rebuild or even total retooling. There are also many different lithium chemistries that are economical and feasible, and we see big swings in chemistries when there's a temporary supply block for, say, cobalt. So perhaps sodium would add a bit more to that flexibility, actually... However even when lithium was at its maximum in 2023, nearly 6x more expensive than it is now, it wasn't the main blocker for expanding battery production capacity (Sorry for the rambling, when I get some coffee in me sometimes it just pours out!)

bryanlarsen 1y ago

A few dozen kg is quite generous. There's 160 g of lithium in a kWh of lithium batteries. A typical household uses less than 30kWh per day. At 2.6 people per household, let's round to 10 kWh per person per day. So 1.6kg of lithium per day, 11kg for a week. But you don't need that much battery -- solar produces power even on cloudy days.