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> China is building, domestically deploying, and exporting solar, wind, batteries, and EVs so fast that the world will have no choice but to rapidly move toward

> China is building, domestically deploying, and exporting solar, wind, batteries, and EVs so fast that the world will have no choice but to rapidly move towards net zero simply due to economics. I can't help but read "we're going to produce and consume more than ever" and I really don't see how it ends in a good way... Take transportation alone, 1.3 billion ICE vehicles to replace by EVs, there is nothing green about that. Not even talking about the absolutely massive mining operations we'll need to build solar and batteries. What about cement? Steel? Petrol derivate chemistry, medicine, fertilizers,... And then what? We continue building and consuming more and more shit forever? Who believes this can be "net zero"?

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Well, not forever. Global population will peak end of century (sometime between 2055-2084) and then begin to rapidly decline based on fertility rate curves. Solar PV panels can be recycled 100% today, trivially, as can lithium and sodium batteries (these materials are abundant in the Earth's crust, but only so much will be needed to establish a circular supply lifecycle loop). I suppose we can argue about the scale of mining operations. Certainly, low carbon powered mass transit whenever possible vs light vehicles and aircraft. This is Africa and India's opportunity to "do better" based on what China has accomplished (having had the chance to ride their high speed rail and ride in their autonomous vehicles) with regards to urban planning, civil engineering, and infrastructure investment, being the last parts of the world that will develop. https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf
- lm28469 1y ago
  > Population will peak end of century and then begin to rapidly decline based on fertility rate curves. If that's truly how it'll go we don't even need EVs and renewable to attain equilibrium. But something tells me we'll manage to fuck it up somehow
  - tpm 1y ago
    we absolutely need to stop pushing CO2 into the atmosphere ASAP.
Hikikomori 1y ago
It's good that ICE cars are replaced by EV over time. Even better if we have less cars overall and more mass transit.
triceratops 1y ago
> Not even talking about the absolutely massive mining operations we'll need to build solar and batteries Less than we need for fossil fuels though.
maxglute 1y ago
50%+ of the world population is low to low middle income, and they're all going to want to increase emission by 4x for parity high income life styles. Realistically 8x since developing = catching up on infra build out, i.e. extremely emissions intensive fuckton of steel and concrete. IIRC 50% more than current consumption by 2050, i.e. consuming much more is basically locked in and that's based on presumption that developing countries are fucking inept and slow rolling development because they don't have a system to do a PRC modernization push otherwise we'd be looking at 200/300/400% increases in steel and concrete. Net zero is pipe dream, it's not going to happen. We can try to make the transition greener, but it's not going to be green. Ultimately, enviroment pilled brains need to remember, development/poverty reduction is going to be a net good that benefits far more people than climate change will fuck over / displace.

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Well, not forever. Global population will peak end of century (sometime between 2055-2084) and then begin to rapidly decline based on fertility rate curves. Solar PV panels can be recycled 100% today, trivially, as can lithium and sodium batteries (these materials are abundant in the Earth's crust, but only so much will be needed to establish a circular supply lifecycle loop). I suppose we can argue about the scale of mining operations. Certainly, low carbon powered mass transit whenever possible vs light vehicles and aircraft. This is Africa and India's opportunity to "do better" based on what China has accomplished (having had the chance to ride their high speed rail and ride in their autonomous vehicles) with regards to urban planning, civil engineering, and infrastructure investment, being the last parts of the world that will develop. https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf

lm28469 1y ago
> Population will peak end of century and then begin to rapidly decline based on fertility rate curves. If that's truly how it'll go we don't even need EVs and renewable to attain equilibrium. But something tells me we'll manage to fuck it up somehow
- tpm 1y ago
  we absolutely need to stop pushing CO2 into the atmosphere ASAP.

Hikikomori 1y ago

It's good that ICE cars are replaced by EV over time. Even better if we have less cars overall and more mass transit.

triceratops 1y ago

> Not even talking about the absolutely massive mining operations we'll need to build solar and batteries Less than we need for fossil fuels though.

maxglute 1y ago

50%+ of the world population is low to low middle income, and they're all going to want to increase emission by 4x for parity high income life styles. Realistically 8x since developing = catching up on infra build out, i.e. extremely emissions intensive fuckton of steel and concrete. IIRC 50% more than current consumption by 2050, i.e. consuming much more is basically locked in and that's based on presumption that developing countries are fucking inept and slow rolling development because they don't have a system to do a PRC modernization push otherwise we'd be looking at 200/300/400% increases in steel and concrete. Net zero is pipe dream, it's not going to happen. We can try to make the transition greener, but it's not going to be green. Ultimately, enviroment pilled brains need to remember, development/poverty reduction is going to be a net good that benefits far more people than climate change will fuck over / displace.