3 ms·

I hope so, but to do that it isn't enough to make renewables economical. You also have to make carbon uneconomical. China's CO2 emissions have continued to inc

by graeme 1y ago

I hope so, but to do that it isn't enough to make renewables economical. You also have to make carbon uneconomical. China's CO2 emissions have continued to increase rapidly along with renewables. Energy is really useful and we don't have enough to fulfil demand. Unless renewables + nuclear are cheaper than carbon and not supply constrained I'd expect both sources to increase in tandem.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
> Energy is really useful and we don't have enough to fulfil demand. Enough sunlight falls on Earth in ~30 min to power humanity for a year. There is currently a capture constraint, not a supply constraint, which is currently being solved for. > Unless renewables + nuclear are cheaper than carbon and not supply constrained I'd expect both sources to increase in tandem. Renewables are cheaper than carbon, even when accounting for storage, unsubsidized. Some will say "what about seasonal!?" Not solved for yet; fossil gas for the gaps until solar, wind, transmission, batteries, and demand response/orchestration keep closing that gap. Nuclear will never be cheap unfortunately. https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/24-hour-solar-now-economically-viable-for-the-worlds-sunniest-regions/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/24-hour-solar-now-ec... https://www.surrey.ac.uk/news/solar-energy-now-worlds-cheapest-source-power-surrey-study-finds https://www.surrey.ac.uk/news/solar-energy-now-worlds-cheape... https://www.authorea.com/users/960972/articles/1329770-solar-energy-in-2025-global-deployment-cost-trends-and-the-role-of-energy-storage-in-enabling-a-resilient-smart-energy-infrastructure https://www.authorea.com/users/960972/articles/1329770-solar... | https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175647950.09188768/v1 https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175647950.09188768/v1 (think in systems)
- graeme 1y ago
  Proof is in the pudding. Has China halted all coal construction because coal is unambigously more expensive than solar? We may at some point cross the cost curve and I hope we do but not obvious we are there yet.
- HK-NC 1y ago
  >enough sunlight to power earth for a year Is that based on the entire surface of the earth, or just dry land?
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    My understanding of the fact is entire surface. I can provide citations related to only usable solar and wind potential, if so desired. > or just dry land? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_solar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_solar https://www.rwe.com/en/research-and-development/solar-energy-projects/floating-solar-systems/ https://www.rwe.com/en/research-and-development/solar-energy... https://www.nrel.gov/news/detail/press/2025/floating-solar-panels-could-support-us-energy-goals https://www.nrel.gov/news/detail/press/2025/floating-solar-p... https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/long-popular-in-asia-floating-solar-catches-on-in-the-u-s https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/long-popular-in-asia-fl... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629622000743 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462962... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032124008207 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403212... https://time.com/china-massive-floating-solar-field/ https://time.com/china-massive-floating-solar-field/ https://theelectricityhub.com/seychelles-launches-floating-solar-project-to-cut-fossil-fuel-dependence/ https://theelectricityhub.com/seychelles-launches-floating-s...
triceratops 1y ago
> China's CO2 emissions have continued to increase rapidly along with renewables China's emissions fell 2.7% this year. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45108292 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45108292 Not per-capita emissions, total emissions.
- graeme 1y ago
  I'd love for CO2 to be peaking, but the comments on that link suggest this is a single month's measurement and that month is not representative as there was a policy cutoff for end of the month that frontloaded solar investments.
  - triceratops 1y ago
    It's for 2025 up to May, and not just for a single month. Fair point about front loaded investments that may have moved the numbers. Nevertheless it's a positive sign.
  - defrost 1y ago
    CO2 emissions haven't yet peaked but global coal use has, all countries have significantly dropped their coal usage with the exception of India and China. Per annum total global coal use has peaked and is projected to fall from this year forward. China's use is becoming "better" (closing many small dirty old coal power stations, opening fewer but larger and more efficient less polluting new ones) while having a set long term plan to phase out coal while using it now to power a transition to renewables (wind turbines and solar panels don't make themselves yet, nor do they yet power their own production).
maxglute 1y ago
Ultimately cost is just one factor to prime driver like energy, energy security most overwhelming priority in energy trilemma (security, cost, sustainability)... Having dispatchahble power not tied to weather with abundance fuel source is always going to trump all other considerations for any serious grid. PRC got burn going ham on renewable a few years ago, few heat events that fucked over hydro production, increased AC demand and all of sudden you're dealing with opportunity cost of rationing factories that currently far exceeds $ differences in generation. Theoretically countries can size renewable rollout that minimum intermittent power + storage can reliabily power grid even with current tech, but that's like... multidecade megaproject.

by graeme 1y ago

toomuchtodo 1y ago

> Energy is really useful and we don't have enough to fulfil demand. Enough sunlight falls on Earth in ~30 min to power humanity for a year. There is currently a capture constraint, not a supply constraint, which is currently being solved for. > Unless renewables + nuclear are cheaper than carbon and not supply constrained I'd expect both sources to increase in tandem. Renewables are cheaper than carbon, even when accounting for storage, unsubsidized. Some will say "what about seasonal!?" Not solved for yet; fossil gas for the gaps until solar, wind, transmission, batteries, and demand response/orchestration keep closing that gap. Nuclear will never be cheap unfortunately. https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/24-hour-solar-now-economically-viable-for-the-worlds-sunniest-regions/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/24-hour-solar-now-ec... https://www.surrey.ac.uk/news/solar-energy-now-worlds-cheapest-source-power-surrey-study-finds https://www.surrey.ac.uk/news/solar-energy-now-worlds-cheape... https://www.authorea.com/users/960972/articles/1329770-solar-energy-in-2025-global-deployment-cost-trends-and-the-role-of-energy-storage-in-enabling-a-resilient-smart-energy-infrastructure https://www.authorea.com/users/960972/articles/1329770-solar... | https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175647950.09188768/v1 https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175647950.09188768/v1 (think in systems)

graeme 1y ago
Proof is in the pudding. Has China halted all coal construction because coal is unambigously more expensive than solar? We may at some point cross the cost curve and I hope we do but not obvious we are there yet.
HK-NC 1y ago
>enough sunlight to power earth for a year Is that based on the entire surface of the earth, or just dry land?
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  My understanding of the fact is entire surface. I can provide citations related to only usable solar and wind potential, if so desired. > or just dry land? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_solar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_solar https://www.rwe.com/en/research-and-development/solar-energy-projects/floating-solar-systems/ https://www.rwe.com/en/research-and-development/solar-energy... https://www.nrel.gov/news/detail/press/2025/floating-solar-panels-could-support-us-energy-goals https://www.nrel.gov/news/detail/press/2025/floating-solar-p... https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/long-popular-in-asia-floating-solar-catches-on-in-the-u-s https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/long-popular-in-asia-fl... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629622000743 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462962... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032124008207 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136403212... https://time.com/china-massive-floating-solar-field/ https://time.com/china-massive-floating-solar-field/ https://theelectricityhub.com/seychelles-launches-floating-solar-project-to-cut-fossil-fuel-dependence/ https://theelectricityhub.com/seychelles-launches-floating-s...

triceratops 1y ago

> China's CO2 emissions have continued to increase rapidly along with renewables China's emissions fell 2.7% this year. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45108292 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45108292 Not per-capita emissions, total emissions.

graeme 1y ago
I'd love for CO2 to be peaking, but the comments on that link suggest this is a single month's measurement and that month is not representative as there was a policy cutoff for end of the month that frontloaded solar investments.
- triceratops 1y ago
  It's for 2025 up to May, and not just for a single month. Fair point about front loaded investments that may have moved the numbers. Nevertheless it's a positive sign.
- defrost 1y ago
  CO2 emissions haven't yet peaked but global coal use has, all countries have significantly dropped their coal usage with the exception of India and China. Per annum total global coal use has peaked and is projected to fall from this year forward. China's use is becoming "better" (closing many small dirty old coal power stations, opening fewer but larger and more efficient less polluting new ones) while having a set long term plan to phase out coal while using it now to power a transition to renewables (wind turbines and solar panels don't make themselves yet, nor do they yet power their own production).

maxglute 1y ago

Ultimately cost is just one factor to prime driver like energy, energy security most overwhelming priority in energy trilemma (security, cost, sustainability)... Having dispatchahble power not tied to weather with abundance fuel source is always going to trump all other considerations for any serious grid. PRC got burn going ham on renewable a few years ago, few heat events that fucked over hydro production, increased AC demand and all of sudden you're dealing with opportunity cost of rationing factories that currently far exceeds $ differences in generation. Theoretically countries can size renewable rollout that minimum intermittent power + storage can reliabily power grid even with current tech, but that's like... multidecade megaproject.