The most insidious thing about this bet isn't that it fails... It's that it could succeed. Loosing the bet will only mean lots of ultra rich people have waste

The most insidious thing about this bet isn't that it fails... It's that it could succeed. Loosing the bet will only mean lots of ultra rich people have wasted tons of money - winning it means the average person, wherever they're American, Chinese, Russian or European (or wherever else you wanna list) will be fucked... And the ultra rich will be the only beneficiaries. But nothing makes me think AGI is achievable through LLMs alone, so I guess I don't mind that bet too much. It's just a question of time when it fails - and the failure will likely not be completely catastrophic, as there is actual value in LLMs, albeit much less then the market is valuing it.