I'd say you're biasing the analysis by ending at the bottom after the crash though. Certainly if you managed to time your capitulation for the market bottom you

I'd say you're biasing the analysis by ending at the bottom after the crash though. Certainly if you managed to time your capitulation for the market bottom you would have lost out, but if you're buy-and-hold long term, you'd catch all of the recovery too. The person who sold early, on the other hand, would most likely miss some of the recovery as well.