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It is insanely hard to build basic things in the US anymore, even if there is a market, even if the market will pay your prices, even if you have the capital to
by bityard 1y ago
It is insanely hard to build basic things in the US anymore, even if there is a market, even if the market will pay your prices, even if you have the capital to start, and even if you can hire reliable workers. And those are all HUGE ifs.
The biggest problem is that the base underlying our manufacturing capability has almost completely evaporated. You need tool and die companies to build parts for your manufacturing machines, but almost none are left. There are only a few plastic injection manufacturing companies left, and they are either fully booked or on the path to shutting down. (No, you can't 3D print products for the mass market, it's way too slow and expensive.) Young people think of trades and manufacturing jobs as fall-backs that only drop-outs who couldn't hack college get into. You will make many times more money as a salescritter convincing people to buy things they don't need than using decades of engineering experience to build the things they do.
It's a popular misconception that China's manufacturing advantage is cheaper labor. This was _maybe_ true for a while, their advantage right now is that they have all the things mentioned above: they have the tool and die shops, they have the supply chains, and they have workforce. They can go from product idea to shipping in a week. I do not celebrate the Chinese government for much, but making sure they had a robust manufacturing base from top to bottom was the biggest and most important thing they have ever done. The US government let ours wither and die. Which has made our economy remarkably fragile and essentially decimated the whole idea of a blue-collar middle class.
Destin from Smarter Every Day encountered all of this when he tried to make a better grill brush using only a handful of parts and _still_ did not manage to make the whole thing using only US-originated parts. It's a fascinating window into how hard it is to make anything at all here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZTGwcHQfLY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZTGwcHQfLY
- DetroitThrow 1y agoYes, for example, it's shocking how much harder it became for a random market entrant to get into the business of making auto parts since the 2008 shutdown, which consolidated and shuttered much of the supply chain. It's industrial capacity that will take decades to "grow" back, if ever.
- bsder 1y ago> You will make many times more money as a salescritter convincing people to buy things they don't need than using decades of engineering experience to build the things they do. That's the fundamental problem. The pay for industrial roles is garbage compared to the skill required. Anyone talented enough to do those roles can obviously see that and opts to do something else.
- momojo 1y agoHow did we get here?
- hn_acc1 1y agoMBAs
- triceratops 1y agoMaybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect?
- toomuchtodo 1y agoGlobalization, financialization, prioritizing short term profits over long term systems. GE, Boeing, etc.
- bsder 1y ago1) Software can be remote Consequently, industrial employers don't have a local monopoly on jobs like they used to. Any industrial employer is competing against any remote position willing to pay above them. That generally isn't hard given how little the industrial employer is willing to pay. 2) Industrial locations generally suck and you have to be there in person Manufacturing generally needs space, and real estate prices are ridiculous. Consequently, manufacturing tends to be located in undesirable areas. That means long commutes or locating in sub-tier cities. 3) No penalty for outsourcing to foreign countries. This is what tariffs are supposed to be for. You slowly ratchet up tariffs until you get the result you need. The problem is that tariffs get politically captured by the oligarchs who use them to completely protect their stupidity (see: the big automakers in the US in the 1970s) until they get totally obliterated.
- Workaccount2 1y agoNevermind that even if you clear all those hurdles and get your product to market, China will copy it, likely improve it, and start selling it on Amazon for half your materials cost. Patents be damned.
- ta20240528 1y agoYou have to take out a Chinese patent if you want patent protection in China. And yes, they are enforced.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- shinycode 1y agoAs a side note, your comment makes me think of the software world where we have amazing talent and things looks like it’s sliding to being done in the majority with AI. Once that’s the case and we don’t have developers anymore then we’re out of knowledge and at the mercy of. Not being able to build complex systems in autonomy. A bit like what happened in the industry you describe
- aDyslecticCrow 1y agoThat video from smarter every day was an eye opener. The effort to just make the simple mold was frightening. The chase to find a single source for a standard screw disheartening. I've talked with some friends here in europe after seeing that video, and apparently tool and die remains more avaliable here. (Metal casting is impossible nationally though) I suspect the larger travel distance to China from europe create a market nieche that keep it alive when quick iteration is important. I dont think we succeeded better politically basides that luck. (Trades is frowned opon in the same way) Locally we have a good prototype industry for cirquitboard design (we work with them regularly), but very few large scale producers. The companies that make electronics nationally often have their own cirquitboard factories for their usecase. But that doesn't work for new companies trying to create new products. The most common approach is to send the design to China and get a pallet of cirquitboards back fully assembled. (With frankly excellent expert support for any issues discovered in manufacturing)
- fxtentacle 1y agoI strongly believe that video exaggerates for effect. You can buy a CNC mill capable of cutting molds on Amazon. And you can rent Fusion 360 for a few dollars per day. And a low volume injection molding robot costs ~ $10k That means any middle sized company could have this in-house if they wanted to.
- aDyslecticCrow 1y agoYou are severely underestimating the expertise and complexity in tool and die making. Cutting the metal is the simple part. The core difficulty wasn't producing the part nor mold; it was finding a guy who knew how.
- fxtentacle 1y agoMy team has produced multiple molds for plastic injection moulding in the past. Yes, it took the CAD guy a month of training to get a feeling for draft angles and how well certain shapes will eject. And yes, you will spend some days waiting for CNC milling. But it’s neither particularly expensive nor particularly difficult.
- fxtentacle 1y agoYou’re not wrong, but how should politics fix this? It’s easy to buy the machines and the software and the training for a tool die shop. But the actual production is still messy and dangerous and needs lots of electricity. And while the salary is not horrible, it’s also not good, because no matter what you do you compete on price with shops in Shenzhen. That means what you actually need to get this manufacturing back to the US is cheaper cost of living. Your US employees need to be able to afford a middle class lifestyle in the US while matching CN salary levels. If that doesn’t work, prospective employees will choose other jobs.
- ambicapter 1y agoCost of energy can definitely be affected by government projects and regulations.
- Dig1t 1y ago>compete on price with shops in Shenzhen One way to help with this fight is to charge a tax on things made in Shenzhen. This helps by funding the government, helping build roads and fund things like healthcare, and also makes those items more price competitive with American-made goods.
- aDyslecticCrow 1y agoPeople are downvoting you. But that is not entirely fair. Tarrifs can work. They're an excellent tool when applied stratecally, gradually, and combined with focused effort to nurture local alternatives. Just because we're currently seeing them used in the most crude and reckless way possible does not diminish their value.
- Mountain_Skies 1y agoYour feeling of obligation to add a disclaimer is why others felt the need to downvote that comment you replied to. Be the fairness you claim to want.
- 1y ago
- stavros 1y ago> There are only a few plastic injection manufacturing companies left, and they are either fully booked or on the path to shutting down. How does this work? How can a market have half its supply be fully booked and the other half not have enough work?
- bobsmooth 1y agoBecause the other half are being undercut by china.
- SkinTaco 1y agoSo am I going crazy or... Are tarrifs the answer here? It sure sounds like something needs to happen, are there better alternatives?
- pstuart 1y agoTariffs could help if they were strategically applied, but that's not happening.
- kiba 1y agoSubsidies, lot of subsidies. And probably a lot of monitoring and adjusting by lawmakers to ensure that industries continues to improve their capabilities. There's more to that but rebuilding our industrial capacity is a work of a generation.
- Imustaskforhelp 1y agoI think the problem with subsidies just as the problem with tarrifs is that they need to be given in a selective process which can benefit them truly. Like maybe this industry is already very concentrated and those subsidies benefit more to the concentrated rather than general public just as the farmer bailout of sorts... Its a tough line and bottom line, you expect some true competency in the govt. to achieve it and be knowledgable about it but I guess in the meanwhile people might discuss such stuff.
- testdelacc1 1y agoTo anyone who thinks “we moved manufacturing to China, so someone should be able to replicate that playbook“, the Chinese government is one step ahead. They know that being the world’s sole manufacturing base is an incredible economic and geopolitical advantage and won’t give that up. Allowing any country to do a China on them will only weaken their economies of scale. And how do they do this? Requiring export licenses for manufacturing machines. Apple wanted to diversify their iPhone manufacturing to India. The machines needed to manufacture iPhones and themselves made only in China. And China placed export restrictions on them to slow down or stop that process. Ditto on the expertise to run those plants. That expertise used to be distributed. It’s mostly Chinese now, and the government exerts a more direct influence on the experts to prevent the knowledge from being spread around. In any case the idea of being able to trust a foreign country as place where stuff can be manufactured has been harmed by both China and Trump. China has demonstrated how such leverage can be abused and Trump has broken the taboo against tariffs. So there’s going to be even less support for creating an alternative to China, which ironically strengthens China. Lastly, even if you got the machines and the know-how and set up a plant in another country, you’re still buying most of your components and raw materials from China. And China has gotten incredibly good at sanctioning specific industries in specific countries. Ask American arms manufacturers that need permanent magnets.
- selimthegrim 1y agoDidn’t Britain do this too for looms?
- IAmBroom 1y agoYes, technical protectionism is a sandbag solution, as I complained about elsewhere. You can't keep it up forever. Either someone will sneak out silk caterpillars in their hems, or memorize all the part drawings for a loom, or simply reinvent the iron beehive furnace.
- throwpoaster 1y agoHuge market opportunity.
- whatever1 1y agoLetting things die is why the US is thriving. Central planning never works in the long term. It is cruel, risky and unfair, but adapting and evolving is the only way for a system to endure the environment changes.
- dijit 1y agoI find it difficult to reconcile “this is what makes the country work long term” when the country you’re talking about is one of the youngest on the world stage. I should also point out that part of why the US is as strong a global presence is because the manufacturing infrastructure of Europe was decimated after some pretty intense warfare. I just don’t see what you’re asserting.
- deltarholamda 1y ago>because the manufacturing infrastructure of Europe was decimated after some pretty intense warfare Exactly this. The US coasted as the last major economy standing for a very long time, and we built our expectations upon this very temporary quirk of geopolitics. Our economy may seem like it's thriving to some, but the fact remains that an economy that does not make things is in trouble. You may be able to make a lot of money by moving money around, but that is not viable long-term. Big Fortune 500 corporations may add a lot to the GDP of a nation, but a big F500 corporation is not going to sponsor your local Little League team. The GP is right, in the narrow aspect of "businesses need to adapt and evolve", but what we moved to in the US is very heavy on the service side. There is a cost to this; there is a cost to everything. It's showing up now in some surprising places, such as high-end chip manufacturing. We let all of that go to Taiwan (Ricardian comparative advantage!), and now all we have is Intel, which has been coasting on inertia for more than a decade.
- IAmBroom 1y agoI agree with your point, and note: the criticism of central planning is still untouched by your objections. A competitive market is still useful, IMO, even if the US is currently falling behind in many metrics, and even if its previous successes were due as much to geopolitical luck as market savvy.
- jjk166 1y ago> You need tool and die companies to build parts for your manufacturing machines, but almost none are left. There are only a few plastic injection manufacturing companies left, and they are either fully booked or on the path to shutting down. > Young people think of trades and manufacturing jobs as fall-backs that only drop-outs who couldn't hack college get into. As an engineer running a factory in New Jersey doing, among other things, injection molding, this is way off base. There are plenty of tool and die shops. While they do exist, injection molding job shops are a miniscule fraction of the injection molding market. The machines are so cheap and so easy to use that everyone in-houses their molding operations. I don't personally see a shortage of young people in manufacturing; I'm in my mid 30s and I'm the old man in my department, and my past employers and the various companies I interact with seem to have similar demographic structures. Our job postings are flooded with kids fresh out of school applying for jobs. My job requires a degree; and it is quite rare to find someone who does not hold a degree compared to say software development. A lot of manufacturing companies will pay to send mid-career employees to school. Post secondary degrees are not uncommon. > Destin from Smarter Every Day encountered all of this when he tried to make a better grill brush using only a handful of parts and _still_ did not manage to make the whole thing using only US-originated parts. It's a fascinating window into how hard it is to make anything at all here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZTGwcHQfLY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZTGwcHQfLY This video is a very poor representation of american manufacturing, likely due to Destin not having any prior experience in that space, and for entertainment value. The process could have been much easier if he talked with a manufacturing engineer early on. Further, he seems to not recognize the concept of comparative advantage. The truth is that international supply lines are actually incredibly beneficial for domestic manufacturing.
- 20after4 1y agoWhat do you consider cheap? Last time I looked, injection molding machines were decidedly not cheap. Furthermore, the cost of a set of molds can run into the range of 6 to 7 figures.
- mlyle 1y agoMolds intended for large production are expensive, but it's going to be expensive no matter where you do it (and can be procured internationally if you want). If you're making something with injection molding, you will need a mold. (Aluminum or even SLA tooling is possible for smaller batches). That said, even good steel tooling does not necessarily cost above low 5 figures. It all depends on what you're trying to do. Real injection molding machines are $10k-300k, depending on what you want / need. This is not very exciting or scary from a capital expenditure point of view. Yes, you can spend a lot more if you're producing a -lot-. That $200k machine can get you to thousands of shots per day.
- ST33LDI9ITAL 1y agoLot of issues... but it all should have been prevented in the first place. It's not likely that manufacturing will ever really return to US like it once was. We have had administration policies that literally handed our manufacturing away and signed their death certificates for them. Policies and regulations have been the downfall. And, will continue to be, because the way our government is designed and politics handled; the same mistakes are repeated with every administration and party shift. It's just a pendulum that swings back and forth every few years. No matter what changes and policies are put in place by an administration, international business knows it's only a few years till it changes. Thus, another huge win for China. Their changes actually last and stick around for the long haul to show improvement. In the US and other places policies just keep shifting. One party is eager to just rip out and undo everything that was put in place by the previous. And setup policies to be a pita for the next. It's really quite counter-productive, even embarassing.