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Scaling Laws are the ultimate VC ponzi scheme vehicle. Keep raising 10x more for each round of scaling and very quickly you get large enough to be able to bull
by m_ke 1y ago
Scaling Laws are the ultimate VC ponzi scheme vehicle.
Keep raising 10x more for each round of scaling and very quickly you get large enough to be able to bully anyone into playing with you.
Sama got big enough to be able to twist any arm he wants and soon OpenAI will be too large to fail.
- Mistletoe 1y agoThe Dutch East India Company wasn't too big to fail. There is nothing too big to fail and if anything too big is guaranteed to fail.
- m_ke 1y agoYes US can fail first and take OpenAI down with it
- stackskipton 1y agoToo big to fail means that as long as government backing it is stable enough to support it, it likely will. Sure Bank of America could fail and US Government can’t back it but that’s likely massive upheaval in United States.
- Invictus0 1y agoLiterally nothing would happen if OpenAI ceased to exist tomorrow. Everyone would migrate to Claude and Gemini and the sun would rise on time.
- m_ke 1y agoYou could say the same about the car manufacturers, lehman and every company in the valley. The whole US economy is getting propped up by AI spending, and to continue on the scaling law ladder each new iteration requires 10x more investment. If OpenAI is not able to raise it's over for anyone adjacent to them (NVIDIA, AMD, Anthropic, etc.). It's AGI or bust for OpenAI, because as you said there's no margin competing on API tokens since open source is almost as good for most use cases.
- Invictus0 1y agoThis is very wrong. You're comparing OpenAI to Lehman Bros? The collapse of OpenAI would not have even a remotely comparable impact to the great recession. Were you even alive at that time? I struggle to imagine how you could make this assertion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis