4 ms·
And the reason nobody wants to take a lower return on investment is that doing so is trying to time the market. Let's say you heard Trump's talk of tariffs, go
by BobaFloutist 1y ago
And the reason nobody wants to take a lower return on investment is that doing so is trying to time the market.
Let's say you heard Trump's talk of tariffs, got spooked when he won the election, and moved your investments. The S&P 500 has gone up ~33% since election day. How much growth can you realistically miss before correctly hedging against a crash still net loses you money?
And that's assuming you pick the correct hedge. If the US economy well and truly crashes beyond return, to the point where the S&P 500 is actual garbage that will not recover in the next 5-10 years, that might bode poorly for the dollar, so that's it for your treasuries, money market funds, CDs, etc. Gold is always an option, until it's at an all time high because just as the economy is roaring along a ton of people are nervous. So, you can invest in gold, but it's expensive, which means it could actually dip if we get stability. Ok, so you invest in foreign markets - but the Global Financial Crisis was global, the Great Depression was global, everything was global.
What do you actually hedge in? Oil? Well, the rapid development of green energy might actually, finally render that an unsafe investment. Green energy? Think again, the president is on a crusade against it. There's literally nothing that's actually a safe investment, and even if you did find a safe investment, the big crash might not happen until everyone else riding the wave has doubled or tripled their investment, by which point they'll be on par or even above you post crash. I'm actually very happy I'm nowhere near retiring, since regardless of how else you feel of the current governing of the US, I think it would be hard to argue that they're fighting a war against conventional wisdom, and that makes investing very scary.