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Agree. The reason given and examples are totally vapid. Artificially low interest rates have stimulated investment into AI that has hit scaling limits, says re
by paulpauper 1y ago
Agree. The reason given and examples are totally vapid.
Artificially low interest rates have stimulated investment into AI that has hit scaling limits, says research firm
He blames "low interest rates," yet interest rates have surged since 2022 to their highest levels in decades. He cannot even get the basic facts right, which kills his credibility at the start.
This also torpedos a common narrative that high interest rates are always bad for asset prices. The difference between 1% vs 5% interest rates does not factor much into VC decisions when the expectations are for 40-100+% annual returns with the hottest AI companies, which far exceeds the additional cost of borrowing. A similar pattern was seen in the the '80s and the late '90s, in which high interest rates also coincided with high valuations of tech companies.
This means a much longer effort at reflation, a bit like what we saw in the early 1990s, after the S&L crisis, and likely special measures as well, as the Trump administration seeks to devalue the US$ in an effort to onshore jobs," he says.
In an attempt to paint a negative picture of impending crisis, he gives examples, of 2001 and 1991, of among the mildest recessions ever. The US stock market and economy would go on to boom in 1995, just a few years after the S&L crisis.
If there is a job that AI needs to automate, it's these overpaid and useless analysts.