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Disclaimer: I am not a doomsday apologist, just a Nerd collecting, analyzing data and doing projections out of it. There is not only an AI bubble, but a US Dol
by Fischgericht 1y ago
Disclaimer: I am not a doomsday apologist, just a Nerd collecting, analyzing data and doing projections out of it.
There is not only an AI bubble, but a US Dollar bubble, too. Most people don't get it what "Stock markets, gold, real estate, crypto, EVERYTHING is up" actually means: That the currency you are paying in is losing value at rapid pace.
I do not yet understand how the market manipulation actually works, but if you exchange from an Asian country to US Dollar right now, an amount that will buy you a excellent dinner for the whole family no longer even buys you a hamburger in the US.
The part I also do not understand is why the only thing that right now is "cheap" as seen from the US perspective are foreign currencies.
I also don't understand why other countries are not liquidating their USD reserves. How can you as a country not see that your reserves now would be much safer in Asian countries including even the Chinese Rimibi?
Well, maybe the answer to the USD losing value rapidly is that in reality there ARE market actors in the background moving to other currencies, but are really really good at hiding it.
But in any case: No doubt, the western part of the global financial system will be crashing within the next 3 weeks. With the US being on the brink to civil war anyway, you should be able to extrapolate what a financial crisis and bank run in the US in combination with everyone and their dog owning war-grade weapons will end up at.
Right now you have heaps of people in the US who are completely ignoring any data but invest only based on being member of a fanatic cult - every time you read news that Tesla no longer is able to sell cars, or that their robots do not work, or that their Robotaxi stuff is a scam, the Tesla share value goes further up. The same applies to AI. That AI will never make any profit is no longer niche knowledge, it's headlines at Bloomberg, WSJ, FT & co. You have to actively ignore that information - still, AI stocks go up.
So what is missing for the bubble to finally burst? Anything that makes those cult members start to doubt. Anything that triggers "Maybe putting all my retirement savings into crypto is too risky" or "Maybe Elon actually isn't the messiah", "I put all my money into a Trump meme-coin. Is this really more important than getting my teeth repaired?". Or anything that triggers those sheeps that are invested into this to simply needing cash quickly. So, for example due to a natural disaster, or some pandemic, the Epstein stuff finally blowing up on Trump etc.
The list of things that now may trigger the implosion is gigantic. Due to that it is possible to predict where it will start - it might not be the AI bubble. It very well even may be something rather classic like the "Deported migrants no longer pay towards their mortgages / loans" stuff happening right now.
But in summary: Due to the very high number of potential triggers it is stunning it hasn't imploded yet, and if you read/watch interviews from scientists in this area, the common theme these days is: "WTF is going on here?! This should have imploded LONG ago!".