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AFAIK its theorized much of the GDP growth of the US, as well as the stock market growth of important index funds, is mostly as a result of select tech companie
by vouwfietsman 1y ago
AFAIK its theorized much of the GDP growth of the US, as well as the stock market growth of important index funds, is mostly as a result of select tech companies surfing the AI hype.
In that case, a prolonged recession may occur (that would've occurred anyway), and the effect will be felt throughout the economy.
But, again, that's just a general recession being triggered by the AI bubble bursting, i.e. AI no longer propping up the economy, so that's not a bad thing. What the results of that are in terms of severity or impact I wouldn't know, I don't think anyone knows.
- WillPostForFood 1y agoWhy do you think it would be a prolonged recession? Dot com bust, for example, was just two quarters of GDP decline, followed by solid growth. 2007 was much worse, because it was a crisis of financial institutions. AI bubble may be bigger than dot com, but feels more like it in that is a narrow section of the economy. Even more narrow than dot com.
- vouwfietsman 1y agoWell I think nobody knows this stuff, so don't take my word for it. I think prolonged makes sense because AI is holding off a depression, but that depression does not have a singular obvious cause. I think there's a bunch of reasons to be pessimistic about the global economy, including of course (geo)political, (trade)wars, extremism, stagnating production, etc. Contrary to the dotcom bubble, current AI might not actually be a useful-but-overvalued tech. It may just not be that useful at all. In that case, a rally like dotcom is out.