For dot-com's it became clear that just having a web site wouldn't move customers. You could expect strong negative signal within a year of putting up the site

For dot-com's it became clear that just having a web site wouldn't move customers. You could expect strong negative signal within a year of putting up the site, prompting broad pull-back. For AI now, the question is (a) how well one can monetize a LLM (size of the market); and (b) how much better one LLM can be than another (enduring competitive advantage). Both of these are generation-long questions. The other factor is who's investing. A lot of money now is from (mostly foreign) non-players who are paying to play, and who have a vested interest in managing their online and business ecosystems. They're not really subject to uncertainty about (a) or (b). Any good LLM will likely be good enough for them, and they already know what they're using it for. So when turbulence hits, those in it for profit will drop out, ceding control to those in it to control society. The bubble bursting is not the important risk.