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I'll be the "this time it's different" guy. 1) the bubble burst hit telecom spend, which was overbuilt relative to the use. 2) the dot com companies were mostly

by chermi 1y ago

I'll be the "this time it's different" guy. 1) the bubble burst hit telecom spend, which was overbuilt relative to the use. 2) the dot com companies were mostly not profitable with small revenues, while the big players here are either profitable (google, Facebook), backed by big players, and/or have massive revenues and user bases. And growing. 3) people actually use LLMs, a lot. 4) even if the data centers are overbuilt because the big guys get diminishing returns, they're still useful, with immediate demand. Search, ads, content are all going to use some sort of LLM crap, and thus need GPUs. So I don't think there will be as big of a fallout. My bet is there will/should be a healthy winnowing, but not a crash (at least not one due solely to AI hype).

KaiserPro 1y ago
> 2) the dot com companies were mostly not profitable with small revenues, while the big players here are either profitable (google, Facebook), backed by big players, and/or have massive revenues and user bases. And growing. 3) OpenAI is losing 4x its income from operating expenses. Facebook is pouring tens of billions into it Google, fuck knows. These are all loss leaders, looking to make the others fold, rather than say a geared company that is profitable but geared to expand. better AI costs much much more to make and run, and there isn't much brand loyalty.