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Here are the current favorites accross the betting sites, I mean Trump has a decent chance https://files.catbox.moe/xc1ik1.png https://files.catbox.moe/xc1ik1.

Here are the current favorites accross the betting sites, I mean Trump has a decent chance https://files.catbox.moe/xc1ik1.png https://files.catbox.moe/xc1ik1.png (NATO is a funny one too lol)

phrotoma 1y ago
holy fuck people will bet on pretty much anything I guess huh?
- andrewinardeer 1y ago
  I bet you they won't.
  - triceratops 1y ago
    I will take that bet. It's very easy for me to win.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
koakuma-chan 1y ago
files.catbox.moe has a security policy called HTTP Strict Transport Security (HSTS), which means that Firefox can only connect to it securely. You can’t add an exception to visit this site. Why is Firefix blocking it? Is HSTS somehow bad? Oh there's something with their certificate
ace32229 1y ago
Betting sites set their odds to maximise their revenue, not reality ;) Polymarkets currently has him at 3% https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?tid=1759764025856 https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?t...
- echelon 1y ago
  On the one hand, betting markets are fantastic predictors. I do really admire the "skin in the game" aspect tracking future outcomes better than polling or "expert" opinion. But that comes at a steep cost. It's a huge negative externality. Placing bets on future outcomes like this isn't the same as placing bets on future outcomes by starting companies, investing in companies, doing fundamental research, or even putting your money in the public markets. It's like sports betting. We're making the marketplace rich and separating gambling addicts from their livelihoods. Without enriching society. We should tax this to pay for education or have some kind of societal upside. It's all bad, otherwise.
GuB-42 1y ago
We may get some surprises but I don't think so: - Trump doesn't project a peaceful image, that's not his style, unlike Obama. No matter the result of his actions, he is at a disadvantage. - The September peace proposal for the Gaza war that could make a good argument is likely to be too recent to influence the decision. - Trump wants to annex Greenland, I don't think the Norwegian Nobel Committee appreciates.

Here are the current favorites accross the betting sites, I mean Trump has a decent chance https://files.catbox.moe/xc1ik1.png https://files.catbox.moe/xc1ik1.png (NATO is a funny one too lol)

phrotoma 1y ago

holy fuck people will bet on pretty much anything I guess huh?

andrewinardeer 1y ago
I bet you they won't.
- triceratops 1y ago
  I will take that bet. It's very easy for me to win.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

koakuma-chan 1y ago

files.catbox.moe has a security policy called HTTP Strict Transport Security (HSTS), which means that Firefox can only connect to it securely. You can’t add an exception to visit this site. Why is Firefix blocking it? Is HSTS somehow bad? Oh there's something with their certificate

ace32229 1y ago

Betting sites set their odds to maximise their revenue, not reality ;) Polymarkets currently has him at 3% https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?tid=1759764025856 https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?t...

echelon 1y ago
On the one hand, betting markets are fantastic predictors. I do really admire the "skin in the game" aspect tracking future outcomes better than polling or "expert" opinion. But that comes at a steep cost. It's a huge negative externality. Placing bets on future outcomes like this isn't the same as placing bets on future outcomes by starting companies, investing in companies, doing fundamental research, or even putting your money in the public markets. It's like sports betting. We're making the marketplace rich and separating gambling addicts from their livelihoods. Without enriching society. We should tax this to pay for education or have some kind of societal upside. It's all bad, otherwise.

GuB-42 1y ago

We may get some surprises but I don't think so: - Trump doesn't project a peaceful image, that's not his style, unlike Obama. No matter the result of his actions, he is at a disadvantage. - The September peace proposal for the Gaza war that could make a good argument is likely to be too recent to influence the decision. - Trump wants to annex Greenland, I don't think the Norwegian Nobel Committee appreciates.