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> If an individual is winning a lot of money from a bookie repeatedly because of these bad initial prices, then it is a sign that they might have a better model
by thaumasiotes 1y ago
> If an individual is winning a lot of money from a bookie repeatedly because of these bad initial prices, then it is a sign that they might have a better model than the bookie, and so it is in the bookie's interest to ban them
I don't think this follows. If an individual is winning a lot of money repeatedly in this way, it is a sign that the bookie should give their bets a lot of weight when adjusting prices. But that information is something the bookie might want.
- daymanstep 1y agoIf bookies want better prices they can pay for prices from places that have good models. Or they can buy / build their own models. What you're suggesting doesn't make sense from an economic perspective.
- thaumasiotes 1y agoSee https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45483917 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45483917 , sidethread.
- daymanstep 1y agoThanks! I definitely have more to learn in this area.
- nly 1y agoThe vast majority of small bookmakers in the UK don't come up with their own prices. They either copy other bookmakers or pay for them. They also typically use off the shelf software for book management and risk.