5 ms·

Knowing history of past bubbles is only mildly informative. The dotcom bubble was different than the railroads bubble etc. The only thing to keep in mind is th

Knowing history of past bubbles is only mildly informative. The dotcom bubble was different than the railroads bubble etc. The only thing to keep in mind is that all of this is about business and ROI. Given the colossal investments, even if the companies finances are healthy and not fraudulent, the economic returns have to be unprecedented or there will be a crash. They are all chasing a golden goose.

delusional 1y ago
> only mildly informative I agree, but would like to maybe build out that theory. When we start talking about the mechanisms of the past we end up over-constricting the possibility space. There were a ton of different ways the dotcom bubble COULD have played out, and only one way it did. If we view the way it did as the only way it possibly could have, we'll almost certainly miss the way the next bubble will play out.
Printerisreal 1y ago
This time they have fiat money and government on their side. so that is also different.
- candiddevmike 1y ago
  It just means we're all going to be hurt by the collapse, not just investors. In line with socialized loses, privatized profits.
  - Printerisreal 1y ago
    That is also true :)
Mistletoe 1y ago
I’m concerned that the accounting differences mentioned between Lucent and Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Google just mean we have gotten much better at lying and misrepresenting things as true. Then the bubble pops and you get the real numbers and we are all like “yep it was the same thing all over again”.
- stephc_int13 1y ago
  Of course, CFOs are all very aware of what failed previously.
jauntywundrkind 1y ago
With Bezos openly stating the goal to build 10 GW+ data-centers in space, it almost feels in question whether this is about ROI, or simply building the Neuromancer future where the ultra-rich can finally be free of their need for the rest of us. Not needing labor at all would be the final return on investment. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45465480 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45465480 https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/jeff-bezos-claims-there-will-be-gigawatt-data-centers-in-space-in-10-years/ https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/jeff-bezos-claims...
- davedx 1y ago
  I'm not sure we should pay too much attention to what Bezos says now he's out of the day to day running of Amazon. It feels like a lot of his life choices now are more about being a megawealthy play boy than anything economically motivated
- gruez 1y ago
  >With Bezos openly stating the goal to build 10 GW+ data-centers in space, it almost feels in question whether this is about ROI, or simply building the Neuromancer future where the ultra-rich can finally be free of their need for the rest of us. Not needing labor at all would be the final return on investment. Why does "Not needing labor at all" need to be in space?
  - ooterness 1y ago
    It's so the billions of disgruntled former workers can't storm the castle.
    - gruez 1y ago
      Still doesn't make sense. The PLA (largest army in the world) can't even capture Taiwan. If they wanted an impenetrable fortress a random island is all they need.
      - estimator7292 1y ago

delusional 1y ago

> only mildly informative I agree, but would like to maybe build out that theory. When we start talking about the mechanisms of the past we end up over-constricting the possibility space. There were a ton of different ways the dotcom bubble COULD have played out, and only one way it did. If we view the way it did as the only way it possibly could have, we'll almost certainly miss the way the next bubble will play out.

Printerisreal 1y ago

This time they have fiat money and government on their side. so that is also different.

candiddevmike 1y ago
It just means we're all going to be hurt by the collapse, not just investors. In line with socialized loses, privatized profits.
- Printerisreal 1y ago
  That is also true :)

Mistletoe 1y ago

I’m concerned that the accounting differences mentioned between Lucent and Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Google just mean we have gotten much better at lying and misrepresenting things as true. Then the bubble pops and you get the real numbers and we are all like “yep it was the same thing all over again”.

stephc_int13 1y ago
Of course, CFOs are all very aware of what failed previously.

jauntywundrkind 1y ago

With Bezos openly stating the goal to build 10 GW+ data-centers in space, it almost feels in question whether this is about ROI, or simply building the Neuromancer future where the ultra-rich can finally be free of their need for the rest of us. Not needing labor at all would be the final return on investment. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45465480 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45465480 https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/jeff-bezos-claims-there-will-be-gigawatt-data-centers-in-space-in-10-years/ https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/jeff-bezos-claims...

davedx 1y ago
I'm not sure we should pay too much attention to what Bezos says now he's out of the day to day running of Amazon. It feels like a lot of his life choices now are more about being a megawealthy play boy than anything economically motivated
gruez 1y ago
>With Bezos openly stating the goal to build 10 GW+ data-centers in space, it almost feels in question whether this is about ROI, or simply building the Neuromancer future where the ultra-rich can finally be free of their need for the rest of us. Not needing labor at all would be the final return on investment. Why does "Not needing labor at all" need to be in space?
- ooterness 1y ago
  It's so the billions of disgruntled former workers can't storm the castle.
  - gruez 1y ago
    Still doesn't make sense. The PLA (largest army in the world) can't even capture Taiwan. If they wanted an impenetrable fortress a random island is all they need.
    - estimator7292 1y ago