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I, personally, think that OpenAI is way overhyped and will never deliver on that promise. But... it might not matter. There is going to be an awful lot of disr
by jmyeet 1y ago
I, personally, think that OpenAI is way overhyped and will never deliver on that promise. But... it might not matter.
There is going to be an awful lot of disruption to the economy caused by displacing workers with AI. That's going to be a massive political problem. If these people get their way, in the future AI will do all the work but there'll be no one to buy their products because nobody is employed and has money.
But I just don't see one company dominating that space. As soon as you have an AI, you can duplicate it. We've seen with efforts like DeepSeek that replicating it once it's done is going to require significantly less effort. So that means you just don't have the moat you think you do.
Imagine the training costs get to $100M and require thousands of machines. Well, within a few years it's going to be $1M or less.
So the question is: can OpenAI (or any other company) keep advancing to outpace Moore's Law? I'm not convinced.
But here's why it might not matter: Tesla. Tesla should not be a trillion dollar company. No matter how you value it on fundamentals, it should be a fraction of that. Value it as a car maker, an energy company or whatever and it gets nowhere near $1T. Yet, it has defied gravity for years.
Why? IMHO because it's become too large to fail and, in part, it's now an investment in the wealth transfer that is going on and will continue from the government to the already wealthy. The government will make sure Tesla won't fail as long as it's friendly to the administration.
As much as AI is hyped, it's still incredibly stupid and limited. We may get to the point where it's "smart" enough to displace a ton of people but it's so expensive to run it's cheaper to employ humans.