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Do people really buy this nonsense? I mean just this week Sora 2 is creating videos that were unimaginable a few months ago. People writing these screeds at thi
by gfodor 1y ago
Do people really buy this nonsense? I mean just this week Sora 2 is creating videos that were unimaginable a few months ago. People writing these screeds at this point to me seem like they’re going through some kind of coping mechanism that has nothing to do with the financials of AI companies and everything to do with their own personal fears around what’s happening with machine intelligence.
- jennyholzer 1y agoI buy it. I perceive you and people who talk like you (read: LLM Boosters) as literal cult members.
- gfodor 1y agoYeah, I know. It’s weird to admit this kind of obvious error in public though, speaks to a very big epistemological hole on your part.
- jstanley 1y agoSo, wait, you're saying that these guys just aren't impressed by the AI technology, and that is blinding them to the fact that the AI companies' economics look really good? That is a laughable take. The AI technology is very very impressive. But that doesn't mean you can recover the hundreds of billions of dollars that you invested in it. World-changing new technology excites everyone and leads to overinvestment. It's a tale as old as time.
- gfodor 1y agoI’m saying that seeing dubious economics is blinding people from accepting what’s actually going on with neural networks, and it leads to them having a profoundly miscalibrated mental model. This is not like analyzing a typical tech cycle. We are dealing with something here that we don’t really understand and transcends basic models like “it’s just a really good tool.”
- saubeidl 1y agoThat pseudo-religious angle that seems to have infected a lot of the tech industry is part of what "doomers" like myself or Zitron criticise. It is just a really good tool. And that's fine. Really good tools are awesome! But they're not AGI - which is basically the tech-religious equivalent to the Second Coming of Christ and about as real. The fear isn't about the practicability of the tool. It's about the mania caused by the religious component.
- gfodor 1y agoIt’s not a religious angle, we literally don’t know how or why these models work. Yes we know how to grow them, but we don’t know what is actually going on inside of them. This is why Anthropic’s CEO wrote the post he did about the need for massive investment in interpretability. It should rattle you that deep learning has these emergent capabilities. I don’t see any reason to think we will see another winter.
- jstanley 1y ago100% agreed, but that is not a reason to spend this much money on it.
- saubeidl 1y agoWe don't know how acetaminophen works exactly either, but it's still just a really good tool...
- gfodor 1y agoIf Acetaminophen started exhibiting signs of human level intelligence I would have a similar perspective
- B56b 1y agoPretty obvious that your opinions have "nothing to do with the financials".
- zapataband2 1y agolol "unimaginable" aka boring creepy slop that drives engagement on facebook for old people.
- tim333 1y agoEd's thing seems more to be that he thinks the tech is kind of useless hence the billions put into it are wasted/scammed.