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> I kind of hope you're right. I couldn't care less if big tech gets knocked down a peg, but in many quarters the AI boom is what's keeping the lights on. A ma

by qsort 1y ago

> I kind of hope you're right. I couldn't care less if big tech gets knocked down a peg, but in many quarters the AI boom is what's keeping the lights on. A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people, it's not exactly something I'm cheering on...

Hamuko 1y ago
If the hype doesn't line up with the fundamentals, then the bubble will have to burst sooner or later.
zwnow 1y ago
But not knocking it down will also mean a lot of pain for the people? Just look at the unsustainable electricity demand and skyrocketing prices big tech is pushing upon the small folk due to their explosive needs for more and more big data centers.
diggan 1y ago
As someone who've jumped on previous hype-trains, most of us who get involved with "frontiers" know it's over-hyped, have more realistic perspective of it and are more-or-less ready for what eventually will come. I'm sure most people heavily invested into AI (energy, money or time-wise) know the consequences of the bet they've done, they're not exactly just trying to earn a living. If the crash/bubble-pop would have change of impacting actual working class folks outside of the AI bubble, I'd agree with you. But I don't think the bubble is so large, the people impacted will be people who willfully made a risky bet.
- DougN7 1y ago
  I don’t know. I’ve read the AI bubble/spending is so big (new data centers, power plants, etc) that it’s propping up GDP. If that all went away plenty of normal people could get hurt. Still, probably better sooner than later. Well, maybe after the power plants are done so we have excess capacity.
zero_shift 1y ago
Continuing the masquerade will only make things worse
- zerosizedweasle 1y ago
  Yeah, it's like an infection. Do you want to deal with it now, when it's painful and you'll lose your finger or when you risk your arm, or risk dying of Sepsis. You can put off the pain but that will make the outcome worse.
semi-extrinsic 1y ago
> A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people A 1% increase in US unemployment results in thousands of excess deaths per year. It is hard to be exact about the numbers, but the trend is clear and strong, see e.g. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3070776/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3070776/
Gigachad 1y ago
The AI boom is masking the fact that the rest of the US economy has crumbled. Things can’t even begin to be fixed until people see they aren’t ok.
- Incipient 1y ago
  Is there actually concrete numbers on this? I was speaking to a friend about this the other day and we both concluded we didn't actually have evidence either way.

by qsort 1y ago

Hamuko 1y ago

If the hype doesn't line up with the fundamentals, then the bubble will have to burst sooner or later.

zwnow 1y ago

But not knocking it down will also mean a lot of pain for the people? Just look at the unsustainable electricity demand and skyrocketing prices big tech is pushing upon the small folk due to their explosive needs for more and more big data centers.

diggan 1y ago

As someone who've jumped on previous hype-trains, most of us who get involved with "frontiers" know it's over-hyped, have more realistic perspective of it and are more-or-less ready for what eventually will come. I'm sure most people heavily invested into AI (energy, money or time-wise) know the consequences of the bet they've done, they're not exactly just trying to earn a living. If the crash/bubble-pop would have change of impacting actual working class folks outside of the AI bubble, I'd agree with you. But I don't think the bubble is so large, the people impacted will be people who willfully made a risky bet.

DougN7 1y ago
I don’t know. I’ve read the AI bubble/spending is so big (new data centers, power plants, etc) that it’s propping up GDP. If that all went away plenty of normal people could get hurt. Still, probably better sooner than later. Well, maybe after the power plants are done so we have excess capacity.

zero_shift 1y ago

Continuing the masquerade will only make things worse

zerosizedweasle 1y ago
Yeah, it's like an infection. Do you want to deal with it now, when it's painful and you'll lose your finger or when you risk your arm, or risk dying of Sepsis. You can put off the pain but that will make the outcome worse.

semi-extrinsic 1y ago

> A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people A 1% increase in US unemployment results in thousands of excess deaths per year. It is hard to be exact about the numbers, but the trend is clear and strong, see e.g. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3070776/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3070776/

Gigachad 1y ago

The AI boom is masking the fact that the rest of the US economy has crumbled. Things can’t even begin to be fixed until people see they aren’t ok.

Incipient 1y ago
Is there actually concrete numbers on this? I was speaking to a friend about this the other day and we both concluded we didn't actually have evidence either way.