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What about the rest of the economy? Deutsche Bank recently said that the AI hype is the only thing holding the US stock market together. And if that crashes, it
by fhd2 1y ago
What about the rest of the economy? Deutsche Bank recently said that the AI hype is the only thing holding the US stock market together. And if that crashes, it tends to ripple world wide.
Scary stuff, at least to someone who doesn't know all that much about market resilience. With what little I know, I'm hoping for a soft pop with slow deflation. But big tech seems to just pump harder right now.
- MarcelOlsz 1y agoI hope it all burns. Zero sympathy whatsoever for AI-anything. It's all a heaping pile of trash.
- techblueberry 1y agoYou hope the garbage heap surrounding your house burns?
- MarcelOlsz 1y ago[flagged]
- dotnet00 1y agoHow about you start by turning off your own computer?
- MarcelOlsz 1y ago[flagged]
- techblueberry 1y agoI’m probably more of a Luddite then you, but it would be nice if it would fail without extending into the rest of the economy.
- MarcelOlsz 1y agoI would out-luddite you any day don't even try me. I'm posting from a beach where I fly a drone overhead to OCR my stick-writing into HN comments.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- fhd2 1y agoYou're hoping for a full on market crash? I don't mind AI hype companies crashing, would probably low key enjoy it with popcorn. But from what I understand, it's not that localised.
- MarcelOlsz 1y agoYeah it will be funny. I couldn't care less. My tea and tobacco will still be just as cheap as it ever was. I'll still be playing my lute on the porch, unaffected.
- alephnerd 1y agoYou realize the startup you are working on would directly be impacted by any sort kf "AI Winter" right?
- MarcelOlsz 1y agoMy startup is already dead in the water because I built it in an ADHD-fritz and only did it to spite a YC company, and in that regard I succeeded wildly because they threatened to sue me. Haha! I'm working on much cooler shit right now. Sick own though, checking my profile and all that.
- alephnerd 1y agoIt's not supposed to be a burn. My point is being flippant about a potential market crash under the assumption that you can somehow weather it out is extremely unrealistic unless you are a HNWI.
- MarcelOlsz 1y agoI'd rather not care than care about some event that is entirely out of reach for me to affect. It just doesn't matter. My grandmother has no idea what a 'market' is. She's doing fine.
- JCM9 1y agoAny big bust will have broader market implications, but I don’t think this has the broad systemic impact that the financial crisis did. It will likely be really ugly for those caught up in it, but a news story and minor blip to the 401k of everyone else. If you are well diversified keep your head down and keep going. If you’re a VC that heavily invested in AI, I suggest preparing for a Cat 5 hurricane now. The biggest impact the average person will see is that the days of VC funded cheap AI will be over. If they want to use AI to cheat on their essay they’ll need to pay a lot more.
- fhd2 1y agoWell, that sounds pretty good to me, hope you're right.
- peterkap 1y agohttps://www.slickcharts.com/sp500 https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500 NVDIA makes up 7.5% of the S&P500. It will not be a minor blip to 401ks if it collapses.
- bluGill 1y agoNVDIA has plenty of other business and will not drop to 0. Even if they drop 75%, than is still only a 2-3% (the math on percentages is weird and I don't feel like doing it - and I shouldn't because a 75% drop is just a random number and so I have no significant figures to work with) drop in my 401k. Of course other companies will be hit as well, but still my 401k will not drop and more than any other stock market crash, and there is every reason to think it will recover. It might stop my plans to retire in the next 10 years (but they were of questionable realism anyway), but any longer than that and odds are it will recover.
- Tadpole9181 1y agoThat's literally one company being used to make a point. At least 25% of the S&P is composed of highly AI-leveraged companies. And you're acting like massive market changes don't propagate and won't cause ripple affects across the economy that impact other markets and change the view of financial risk.
- svara 1y ago> Deutsche Bank recently said that the AI hype is the only thing holding the US stock market together. Doesn't sound right. Russel 2000 is up ~10% YTD.
- karmakurtisaani 1y agoThis 10% is largely due to weaker dollar though.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- tim333 1y agoIt doesn't have to be bad. Part of the weak jobs market is companies spending their money on GPUs rather than hiring humans. That could reverse.
- Jordan-117 1y agoMost of the world already seems drifting towards far-right authoritarianism based on "just" run-of-the-mill cost-of-living increases and resentment towards economic elites (and a lot of that is lingering, never-healed fallout from the 2008 crisis). I dread to see what the reaction will be to a genuine global crash right now.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]