6 ms·

Unless we deescalate this won't end well for anyone. Except maybe mil-ind complex shareholders.

by js8 1y ago

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
NicoJuicy 1y ago
Nah. Russia is boxing way beyond it's weight. It will collapse like in 1991 if we would even just put some tanks at the border ( eg. At Finland, Poland). ( Russia's banks are pretty vulnerable atm. )
- js8 1y ago
  I don't think so. I have russian coworkers who visited their family in Russia recently. They say there is more investment in infrastructure in Russia since the war. Basically, Russian oligarchs cannot invest abroad so they have to do it at home. So there are signs that the war helped Russia to resolve its "dutch disease" (a situation where a state relying on natural resource such as oil stunts its economic growth in other areas).
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - ponector 1y ago
    Economy is so good that they have 20% interest rate. So good that they are cutting workweek, furloughing workers on the biggest car and truck factories. So good that they are limiting petrol sales to 20l per person.
  - mrguyorama 1y ago
    No, you are misreading the situation. Russia is spending a lot of money and effort and resources internally because it has a near total wartime economy now. That is not a good thing. Nobody can eat a tank. You can't plow a field with a howitzer. Your economy suffers when you can make more money being a frontline soldier than you can being a skilled worker. Every single Shahed they build is a waste! And Russia's demographics are fundamentally broken, even before they got hundreds of thousands of Russian young men killed. They can't keep it going forever. Even if they won the war today, there would be serious repercussions. Russia is lucky they have a good central bank to manage these problems but that isn't magic. Russia is burning dollars and real human lives for very little gain, again, even if Ukraine capitulated today. Putin already lost the war. Even gaining all of Ukraine, with a pacified populace, would be somewhat Pyrrhic, and just stave off problems. Meanwhile, Russia's weapons export market, which was significant and meaningful, is just gone. Nobody wants what they sell anymore, and they can't make enough to export some of it anyway. Also meanwhile, they have not fixed their "dutch disease" since Russia's economy is still entirely reliant on selling gas to people, and what little trade they had other than that is gone.
    - js8 1y ago
      Well, you might be right, I agree that war is a waste of resources. But that's actually why EU should stop them, by offering Russia some tangible alternative, a path to prosperity. Instead we cut the ties completely (which we didn't do with U.S. when it attacked Iraq, Israel genociding Palestinians also doesn't seem to matter). Instead, EU wants to embrace the same kind of (they call it) "military keynesianism". They think military spending will fix their economies. (In fact, attempt to use war as a way to prop up the economy was suggested as a reason why Putin started the war.) It's also bad because longterm, it puts Russia on the same path the U.S. has been - a big weapons manufacturer that is looking to export a war somewhere.
      - NicoJuicy 1y ago
        I agree with stopping Russia. Put tanks on the border and Russia will collapse on it's own. Giving Russia what it wants will just create more problems in a couple of years.
  - NicoJuicy 1y ago
    That's probably all centered around Moscow and St. Petersburg? All the wages were up, but are now coming down. They tried supporting the economy ( to not hit deflation), but that is crumbling soon Note: I don't live there. But the central bank of Russia really has a competent head ( Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina ) that's worth listening too. She's so competent that Putin won't block/silence her too much. Her latest statements are more grim: https://kyivindependent.com/russias-war-fueled-economy-is-running-on-empty-central-bank-chief-warns/ https://kyivindependent.com/russias-war-fueled-economy-is-ru...

Unless we deescalate this won't end well for anyone. Except maybe mil-ind complex shareholders.

by js8 1y ago

Unless we deescalate this won't end well for anyone. Except maybe mil-ind complex shareholders.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

NicoJuicy 1y ago

Nah. Russia is boxing way beyond it's weight. It will collapse like in 1991 if we would even just put some tanks at the border ( eg. At Finland, Poland). ( Russia's banks are pretty vulnerable atm. )

js8 1y ago
I don't think so. I have russian coworkers who visited their family in Russia recently. They say there is more investment in infrastructure in Russia since the war. Basically, Russian oligarchs cannot invest abroad so they have to do it at home. So there are signs that the war helped Russia to resolve its "dutch disease" (a situation where a state relying on natural resource such as oil stunts its economic growth in other areas).
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- ponector 1y ago
  Economy is so good that they have 20% interest rate. So good that they are cutting workweek, furloughing workers on the biggest car and truck factories. So good that they are limiting petrol sales to 20l per person.
- mrguyorama 1y ago
  No, you are misreading the situation. Russia is spending a lot of money and effort and resources internally because it has a near total wartime economy now. That is not a good thing. Nobody can eat a tank. You can't plow a field with a howitzer. Your economy suffers when you can make more money being a frontline soldier than you can being a skilled worker. Every single Shahed they build is a waste! And Russia's demographics are fundamentally broken, even before they got hundreds of thousands of Russian young men killed. They can't keep it going forever. Even if they won the war today, there would be serious repercussions. Russia is lucky they have a good central bank to manage these problems but that isn't magic. Russia is burning dollars and real human lives for very little gain, again, even if Ukraine capitulated today. Putin already lost the war. Even gaining all of Ukraine, with a pacified populace, would be somewhat Pyrrhic, and just stave off problems. Meanwhile, Russia's weapons export market, which was significant and meaningful, is just gone. Nobody wants what they sell anymore, and they can't make enough to export some of it anyway. Also meanwhile, they have not fixed their "dutch disease" since Russia's economy is still entirely reliant on selling gas to people, and what little trade they had other than that is gone.
  - js8 1y ago
    Well, you might be right, I agree that war is a waste of resources. But that's actually why EU should stop them, by offering Russia some tangible alternative, a path to prosperity. Instead we cut the ties completely (which we didn't do with U.S. when it attacked Iraq, Israel genociding Palestinians also doesn't seem to matter). Instead, EU wants to embrace the same kind of (they call it) "military keynesianism". They think military spending will fix their economies. (In fact, attempt to use war as a way to prop up the economy was suggested as a reason why Putin started the war.) It's also bad because longterm, it puts Russia on the same path the U.S. has been - a big weapons manufacturer that is looking to export a war somewhere.
    - NicoJuicy 1y ago
      I agree with stopping Russia. Put tanks on the border and Russia will collapse on it's own. Giving Russia what it wants will just create more problems in a couple of years.
- NicoJuicy 1y ago
  That's probably all centered around Moscow and St. Petersburg? All the wages were up, but are now coming down. They tried supporting the economy ( to not hit deflation), but that is crumbling soon Note: I don't live there. But the central bank of Russia really has a competent head ( Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina ) that's worth listening too. She's so competent that Putin won't block/silence her too much. Her latest statements are more grim: https://kyivindependent.com/russias-war-fueled-economy-is-running-on-empty-central-bank-chief-warns/ https://kyivindependent.com/russias-war-fueled-economy-is-ru...