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You can correctly identify a bubble without being able to identify when it'll burst (which is arguably the much harder problem). The statistically correct play
by lawn 1y ago
You can correctly identify a bubble without being able to identify when it'll burst (which is arguably the much harder problem).
The statistically correct play is therefore not to do this (and just keep buying).
- Esophagus4 1y agoThen no, you haven’t identified a bubble. You’ve just said, “I think something will go down at some point.” Which… like… sure, but in a pointlessly trivial way? Even a broken clock is right eventually? That’s not “identifying a bubble” that’s boring dinner small talk. “Wow, this Bitcoin thing is such a bubble huh!” “Yeah, sure is crazy!” And even more so, if you’re long into something you call a bubble, that by definition says either you don’t think it’s that much of a bubble, huh? Or you’re a goon for betting on something you believe is all hot air?