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>You really think the French, Swedes, Russians or Chinese won't sell them planes? They're seeking to be a regional power. They don't need F-35s. (Though they're

>You really think the French, Swedes, Russians or Chinese won't sell them planes? They're seeking to be a regional power. They don't need F-35s. (Though they're certainly handy.) The fact we're even having this conversation is the point. Top-end equipment was always guaranteed. The fact you're shopping around mentally for second-best points to that. >I'll grant that China has been the most consistent on Israel and Palestine. Nevertheless, Israeli-Chinese trade keeps growing. Well, there's a reason why they've been consistent on it so far. If Israel's trade comes to depend significantly on them, they can use it as leverage against them. >Really? According to whom? I haven't been in the UN for a while, but everyone I knew was asking when, not if. It clearly works for domestic politics, doubly following the recent trade concessions. I should have been more specific than a few months ago. Here's what I meant. Many of these countries have no issues against Palestine, but wouldn't break openly with the US position because of how dependent they are. That happening is a vibe shift. >The U.S. funds about 15% of Israel's defence budget. We allow them to splurge in a way they can't alone. But that just means they can't defeat Hezbollah and Iran and Hamas at the same time without us. You keep taking my statements out of context, attacking a point I didn't make and then claiming victory. I'm not even addressing US aid to Israel, which is extensive. I'm talking about their economy! Without that trade, the economy will shrink by a lot. The technologists bringing in that FX will move away in large numbers. Spending will have to reduce by half or more, especially given Israel already has a high tax-to-gdp-ratio. The country won't survive it. More high earners will leave and you'll go into a death spiral. Dozens of UN resolutions have been issued against Israel and vetoed by the US. If it happens without American support, they'll be placed under an intl. embargo until they comply. Ask Iran what intl. embargoes have done to crush their economy before you wave it off. What America offers Israel is both a large export market they don't have internally, and protection from consequences. Israel is too integrated with the West, going as far as competing in Eurovision, UEFA, etc. If they break with the West, they can't survive it. I cite Rhodesia as an example repeatedly because that's where they slowly but surely ended up. If you end up with Western sanctions, no matter your country's size, you're fucked. USSR and Maoist China can give you any lectures you want. The 'chosen people' delusion can make it seem economic realities don't apply, but the earlier Israel can get to a lasting peace while conditions are favorable, the better.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> fact we're even having this conversation is the point. Top-end equipment was always guaranteed. The fact you're shopping around mentally for second-best points to that I've literally not thought about this until you brought it up. My point is there is an extensive list of eager jet sellers who would step up to the plate. > If Israel's trade comes to depend significantly on them, they can use it as leverage against them Sure? Same as America can now. This defeats the argument that Israel is being economically isolated, or faces devastation from losing America as a close ally in decades. > Many of these countries have no issues against Palestine, but wouldn't break openly with the US position because of how dependent they are. That happening is a vibe shift It's been months in the making. Not paying attention doesn't make something surprising. It would have been extremely surprising if Canada, the UK and France didn't recognise Palestine, and I'm saying this going back half a year. > I'm talking about their economy! Without that trade, the economy will shrink by a lot But going back to the top, there are plenty of other trading partners America's third of exports could be replaced with. Not entirely. Not on as great terms. But close enough to keep Israel reigning as a regional hegemony. > technologists bringing in that FX will move away in large numbers Where are you getting this notion that tech exports are a major source of FX for Israel? Or that Israel would stop being a tech centre if America turned its back on it? (And again, major emerging gas exporter.) > you'll go into a death spiral I'm not Israeli. I've never been to Israel. > Dozens of UN resolutions have been issued against Israel and vetoed by the US. If it happens without American support, they'll be placed under an intl. embargo until they comply Look at the list of UNSC sanctioned countries [1]. They're symbolic. The point is to cause members to enact follow-on sanctions [2]. When that doesn't happen, they're ineffective. > Ask Iran what intl. embargoes have done to crush their economy They're...still around. You also missed Angola, Yemen, North Korea... > Israel is too integrated with the West, going as far as competing in Eurovision, UEFA, etc. If they break with the West, they can't survive it. I cite Rhodesia as an example repeatedly because that's where they slowly but surely ended up I get this is your hypothesis. It simply isn't sustained. This is before we get to the point that if a couple Western countries sanction Israel for shits and giggles, there is a lot of money to be made by someone defecting and acting 'neutrally'. (Also, in any world where Israel is sanctioned, Palestine gets devastated. That's simply the nature of having an economic basket case as a neighbour.) Again, there seem to be folks who like to see patterns that sustain extreme outcomes that support a moral view of the world. You're having to go so deep into hypotheticals while being able to surface zero sources because the precedented outcome for this war--like most others that caused moral outrage in the West--is that we forget about it and move on and then everyone goes back to making money again. (The only note I'd add is that if this rhetoric becomes commonplace, that America is destined to abondon Israel, it incentivises one outcome and one outcome only: destroying Palestine today, quickly and decisively. Nobody talks about that because nobody really buys the pitch you're making outside pro-Palestinian activist circles. I'm also not criticising you personally. Ukraine was my pet war. I absolutely bought into all sorts of conspiracies about Russia getting sidelined and partitioned up. We all want to see patterns that sustain the illusion of a just world.) [1] https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/sanctions/information https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/sanctions/information [2] https://www.jstor.org/stable/26296655 https://www.jstor.org/stable/26296655

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> fact we're even having this conversation is the point. Top-end equipment was always guaranteed. The fact you're shopping around mentally for second-best points to that I've literally not thought about this until you brought it up. My point is there is an extensive list of eager jet sellers who would step up to the plate. > If Israel's trade comes to depend significantly on them, they can use it as leverage against them Sure? Same as America can now. This defeats the argument that Israel is being economically isolated, or faces devastation from losing America as a close ally in decades. > Many of these countries have no issues against Palestine, but wouldn't break openly with the US position because of how dependent they are. That happening is a vibe shift It's been months in the making. Not paying attention doesn't make something surprising. It would have been extremely surprising if Canada, the UK and France didn't recognise Palestine, and I'm saying this going back half a year. > I'm talking about their economy! Without that trade, the economy will shrink by a lot But going back to the top, there are plenty of other trading partners America's third of exports could be replaced with. Not entirely. Not on as great terms. But close enough to keep Israel reigning as a regional hegemony. > technologists bringing in that FX will move away in large numbers Where are you getting this notion that tech exports are a major source of FX for Israel? Or that Israel would stop being a tech centre if America turned its back on it? (And again, major emerging gas exporter.) > you'll go into a death spiral I'm not Israeli. I've never been to Israel. > Dozens of UN resolutions have been issued against Israel and vetoed by the US. If it happens without American support, they'll be placed under an intl. embargo until they comply Look at the list of UNSC sanctioned countries [1]. They're symbolic. The point is to cause members to enact follow-on sanctions [2]. When that doesn't happen, they're ineffective. > Ask Iran what intl. embargoes have done to crush their economy They're...still around. You also missed Angola, Yemen, North Korea... > Israel is too integrated with the West, going as far as competing in Eurovision, UEFA, etc. If they break with the West, they can't survive it. I cite Rhodesia as an example repeatedly because that's where they slowly but surely ended up I get this is your hypothesis. It simply isn't sustained. This is before we get to the point that if a couple Western countries sanction Israel for shits and giggles, there is a lot of money to be made by someone defecting and acting 'neutrally'. (Also, in any world where Israel is sanctioned, Palestine gets devastated. That's simply the nature of having an economic basket case as a neighbour.) Again, there seem to be folks who like to see patterns that sustain extreme outcomes that support a moral view of the world. You're having to go so deep into hypotheticals while being able to surface zero sources because the precedented outcome for this war--like most others that caused moral outrage in the West--is that we forget about it and move on and then everyone goes back to making money again. (The only note I'd add is that if this rhetoric becomes commonplace, that America is destined to abondon Israel, it incentivises one outcome and one outcome only: destroying Palestine today, quickly and decisively. Nobody talks about that because nobody really buys the pitch you're making outside pro-Palestinian activist circles. I'm also not criticising you personally. Ukraine was my pet war. I absolutely bought into all sorts of conspiracies about Russia getting sidelined and partitioned up. We all want to see patterns that sustain the illusion of a just world.) [1] https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/sanctions/information https://main.un.org/securitycouncil/en/sanctions/information [2] https://www.jstor.org/stable/26296655 https://www.jstor.org/stable/26296655