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> They've neutered Iran and become the de facto regional security power How did they "neuter" Iran? Iran responded quickly and managed to heavily damage TelAvi

> They've neutered Iran and become the de facto regional security power How did they "neuter" Iran? Iran responded quickly and managed to heavily damage TelAviv and is now rushing to accelerate rebuilding their nuclear capabilities. If anything, the previous operation was a disaster, it allowed to regime to entrench itself even further in IRAN and regime change that they were hoping for didn't happen. I'm sure both Iran and Israel are gearing up for another round of heavy conflict later this year or early next year. IRAN is still very much a threat to Israel.

deleted 1y ago
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giardini 1y ago
Iran's air force is NG, can't compete with Israel: https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/irans-air-force-is-starting-to-circle-the-drain/ https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/irans-air-force-is-start...
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> How did they "neuter" Iran? Iran responded quickly and managed to heavily damage TelAviv Israel gained air superiority over Iran and successfully conducted military decapitation strikes. Iran sort of launched some half-assed rockets in Israel's direction. The only damage Israel has suffered is to its intelligence faculties in Iran. > the previous operation was a disaster, it allowed to regime to entrench itself even further in IRAN and regime change that they were hoping for didn't happen It was a tactical failure and strategic success. Iran's proxies have been shown they're completely fucking on their own--Tehran can't defend itself. As for regime change, Israel didn't prosecute its war in a way that suggests that was the aim. Separatism? Yes. Destabilisation? Sure. Incapacitation? Surely. But regime change? I really don't think so. Knocking out the regime would likely mean elements of the IRGC consolidating power. That isn't a win for Israel. > I'm sure both Iran and Israel are gearing up for another round of heavy conflict later this year or early next year Iran doesn't have the ranged capability. > IRAN is still very much a threat to Israel I haven't seen any credible, impartial analysis that suggests this is remotely the case.
- woooooo 1y ago
  The conflict was settling into a "war of the cities" scenario with both Israel and the US exhausting interceptors rapidly. What happens when it turns into a contest of rocket production and absorption against a country with 10x the population and 20x the land area? Completely unwinnable for Israel. Iran doesn't need air superiority to fire rockets.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > conflict was settling into a "war of the cities" scenario with both Israel and the US exhausting interceptors rapidly Iran was rapidly running out of launchers. Once Israel gained air supremacy, it severely reduced its launcher deployment to avoid losing them for nothing. > What happens when it turns into a contest of rocket production and absorption against a country with 10x the population and 20x the land area? Completely unwinnable for Israel Iranian rocket production rates aren't particularly amazing. Tehran's deterrence came from the size of their stockpile, and the fact that they could fire on Israel from four directions (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and Iran proper). > Iran doesn't need air superiority to fire rockets Where did you get this? Iran's MRBMs are mostly liquid fuelled [1] and stored in fortified bunkers (like V2s were). This leaves them highly vulnerable during fuelling (same as V2s). With air supremacy one can take out the missiles on the pad. (Which, due to the aforementioned fortification requirements, are predictably placed.) This is one reason Iran's missile firing rate collapsed during the war [2]--Israeli intelligence combined with targeted (land-origin, it seems) strikes took out their launchers. Iran also has a fleet of solid-fuelled missiles which can be launched on short notice, but these are also less accurate, have to carry smaller payloads and more cheaply intercepted. Moreover, in a war of attrition (which we did not reach, both sides were burning stockpiles) production reigns supreme. You need at least air parity to fire missiles. You need a favourable air situation to run fixed factories. [1] https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-ba... [2] https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Iranian-Ballistic-Missile-Estimates-6-26-2025-6.pdf https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Iranian-Ballist...
    - 1y ago
HDThoreaun 1y ago
Annihilated Hezbollah, toppled the Assad regime. Those two were irans most important allies and are now gone.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

giardini 1y ago

Iran's air force is NG, can't compete with Israel: https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/irans-air-force-is-starting-to-circle-the-drain/ https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/irans-air-force-is-start...

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> How did they "neuter" Iran? Iran responded quickly and managed to heavily damage TelAviv Israel gained air superiority over Iran and successfully conducted military decapitation strikes. Iran sort of launched some half-assed rockets in Israel's direction. The only damage Israel has suffered is to its intelligence faculties in Iran. > the previous operation was a disaster, it allowed to regime to entrench itself even further in IRAN and regime change that they were hoping for didn't happen It was a tactical failure and strategic success. Iran's proxies have been shown they're completely fucking on their own--Tehran can't defend itself. As for regime change, Israel didn't prosecute its war in a way that suggests that was the aim. Separatism? Yes. Destabilisation? Sure. Incapacitation? Surely. But regime change? I really don't think so. Knocking out the regime would likely mean elements of the IRGC consolidating power. That isn't a win for Israel. > I'm sure both Iran and Israel are gearing up for another round of heavy conflict later this year or early next year Iran doesn't have the ranged capability. > IRAN is still very much a threat to Israel I haven't seen any credible, impartial analysis that suggests this is remotely the case.

woooooo 1y ago
The conflict was settling into a "war of the cities" scenario with both Israel and the US exhausting interceptors rapidly. What happens when it turns into a contest of rocket production and absorption against a country with 10x the population and 20x the land area? Completely unwinnable for Israel. Iran doesn't need air superiority to fire rockets.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > conflict was settling into a "war of the cities" scenario with both Israel and the US exhausting interceptors rapidly Iran was rapidly running out of launchers. Once Israel gained air supremacy, it severely reduced its launcher deployment to avoid losing them for nothing. > What happens when it turns into a contest of rocket production and absorption against a country with 10x the population and 20x the land area? Completely unwinnable for Israel Iranian rocket production rates aren't particularly amazing. Tehran's deterrence came from the size of their stockpile, and the fact that they could fire on Israel from four directions (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and Iran proper). > Iran doesn't need air superiority to fire rockets Where did you get this? Iran's MRBMs are mostly liquid fuelled [1] and stored in fortified bunkers (like V2s were). This leaves them highly vulnerable during fuelling (same as V2s). With air supremacy one can take out the missiles on the pad. (Which, due to the aforementioned fortification requirements, are predictably placed.) This is one reason Iran's missile firing rate collapsed during the war [2]--Israeli intelligence combined with targeted (land-origin, it seems) strikes took out their launchers. Iran also has a fleet of solid-fuelled missiles which can be launched on short notice, but these are also less accurate, have to carry smaller payloads and more cheaply intercepted. Moreover, in a war of attrition (which we did not reach, both sides were burning stockpiles) production reigns supreme. You need at least air parity to fire missiles. You need a favourable air situation to run fixed factories. [1] https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-ba... [2] https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Iranian-Ballistic-Missile-Estimates-6-26-2025-6.pdf https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Iranian-Ballist...
  - 1y ago

HDThoreaun 1y ago

Annihilated Hezbollah, toppled the Assad regime. Those two were irans most important allies and are now gone.