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>Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. My claim was specifically with China in mind. Pretty much everything the

>Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. My claim was specifically with China in mind. Pretty much everything the Americans will let Israel sell to non-Western partners can be gotten from China, Turkey, etc. cheaper and with less headache. >Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here. Yep. Introducing my magical new fighter jet that replaces the f35! >...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems? Well, it probably didn't work great given how India fared recently, did it? They're a committed partner of Israel and collaborate on military tech. >Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.) The only thing China reliably does is single-mindedly pursue their interests. Propping Israel up doesn't achieve that. In fact they're quite chummy with the Palestinians and lots of the weapons used for the Oct. 7 raid were Chinese-made. >Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade. If you say so. The chances of the Five Eyes breaking with America on recognizing Palestine were also exactly zero just a few months ago. >Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe? Because they're the only ones who have the money for it. No non-Western company/country has the amount of tech demand/cash to have completed the Wiz acquisition for $32b in cash. Their software markets have no viable customers outside the West. >Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran. Good point. >It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents. I have no dog in the fight. Both countries could disappear overnight and it wouldn't affect my quality of life. I'm simply a student of history and I'm trained to see patterns.

throwaway7783 1y ago
I'm curious to know what it is that India didn't fare well in the recent conflict. Based on my reading I was under the impression that original incursion was a military success for India and everything else after that was theatre on both sides. What am I missing?
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > curious to know what it is that India didn't fare well in the recent conflict Pakistan shot down Indian plane(s). India didn't return the favour. Worse, Pakistan's integrated air defence systems had situational awareness; it's clear Indian Rafale pilots didn't even see the shots coming. It's not a victory for one side or the other, overall. But in the air battle, Pakistan gained tactical supremacy.
- throwaway7783 1y ago
  The Indian government claims to have shit down Pakistani jets as well and Pakistan denied it. Pakistan claims to have shit down six jets and India says it's 3. So there is that
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > Indian government claims to have shit down Pakistani jets as well and Pakistan denied it A lot of folks have looked at a lot of OSINT. There is no evidence of any Indian kills. The best we can say is we have zero confirmed kills by India on Pakistan. For what it's worth, New Delhi seems to have backed off repeating its claims of kills internationally. > Pakistan claims to have shit down six jets and India says it's 3 India claims three jets crashed for unknown reasons [1]. French and US officials have indirectly confirmed those kills [2][3]. Internationally, it's being treated as three confirmed kills by Pakistan. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/three-fighter-jets-crashed-indias-jammu-kashmir-local-govt-sources-say-2025-05-07/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/three-fighter-jet... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/ https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-bro... [3] https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attack-kashmir-tourists-intl-hnk https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attac...
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> Introducing my magical new fighter jet that replaces the f35 You really think the French, Swedes, Russians or Chinese won't sell them planes? They're seeking to be a regional power. They don't need F-35s. (Though they're certainly handy.) > probably didn't work great given how India fared recently, did it? India doesn't field Israeli air defences... > only thing China reliably does is single-mindedly pursue their interests. Propping Israel up doesn't achieve that I'll grant that China has been the most consistent on Israel and Palestine. Nevertheless, Israeli-Chinese trade keeps growing. > If you say so. The chances of the Five Eyes breaking with America on recognizing Palestine were also exactly zero just a few months ago Really? According to whom? I haven't been in the UN for a while, but everyone I knew was asking when, not if. It clearly works for domestic politics, doubly following the recent trade concessions. Netherlands (not Five Eyes) was 1 in 3 [1]. Canada and France were making motions for a while; Japan and Italy were like 50% going back two months. > they're the only ones who have the money for it The U.S. funds about 15% of Israel's defence budget. We allow them to splurge in a way they can't alone. But that just means they can't defeat Hezbollah and Iran and Hamas at the same time without us. [1] https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogpalestine/palestine-recognition https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogpalestine/palestine-recogn...
- churchill 1y ago
  >You really think the French, Swedes, Russians or Chinese won't sell them planes? They're seeking to be a regional power. They don't need F-35s. (Though they're certainly handy.) The fact we're even having this conversation is the point. Top-end equipment was always guaranteed. The fact you're shopping around mentally for second-best points to that. >I'll grant that China has been the most consistent on Israel and Palestine. Nevertheless, Israeli-Chinese trade keeps growing. Well, there's a reason why they've been consistent on it so far. If Israel's trade comes to depend significantly on them, they can use it as leverage against them. >Really? According to whom? I haven't been in the UN for a while, but everyone I knew was asking when, not if. It clearly works for domestic politics, doubly following the recent trade concessions. I should have been more specific than a few months ago. Here's what I meant. Many of these countries have no issues against Palestine, but wouldn't break openly with the US position because of how dependent they are. That happening is a vibe shift. >The U.S. funds about 15% of Israel's defence budget. We allow them to splurge in a way they can't alone. But that just means they can't defeat Hezbollah and Iran and Hamas at the same time without us. You keep taking my statements out of context, attacking a point I didn't make and then claiming victory. I'm not even addressing US aid to Israel, which is extensive. I'm talking about their economy! Without that trade, the economy will shrink by a lot. The technologists bringing in that FX will move away in large numbers. Spending will have to reduce by half or more, especially given Israel already has a high tax-to-gdp-ratio. The country won't survive it. More high earners will leave and you'll go into a death spiral. Dozens of UN resolutions have been issued against Israel and vetoed by the US. If it happens without American support, they'll be placed under an intl. embargo until they comply. Ask Iran what intl. embargoes have done to crush their economy before you wave it off. What America offers Israel is both a large export market they don't have internally, and protection from consequences. Israel is too integrated with the West, going as far as competing in Eurovision, UEFA, etc. If they break with the West, they can't survive it. I cite Rhodesia as an example repeatedly because that's where they slowly but surely ended up. If you end up with Western sanctions, no matter your country's size, you're fucked. USSR and Maoist China can give you any lectures you want. The 'chosen people' delusion can make it seem economic realities don't apply, but the earlier Israel can get to a lasting peace while conditions are favorable, the better.

throwaway7783 1y ago

I'm curious to know what it is that India didn't fare well in the recent conflict. Based on my reading I was under the impression that original incursion was a military success for India and everything else after that was theatre on both sides. What am I missing?

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> curious to know what it is that India didn't fare well in the recent conflict Pakistan shot down Indian plane(s). India didn't return the favour. Worse, Pakistan's integrated air defence systems had situational awareness; it's clear Indian Rafale pilots didn't even see the shots coming. It's not a victory for one side or the other, overall. But in the air battle, Pakistan gained tactical supremacy.
throwaway7783 1y ago
The Indian government claims to have shit down Pakistani jets as well and Pakistan denied it. Pakistan claims to have shit down six jets and India says it's 3. So there is that
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > Indian government claims to have shit down Pakistani jets as well and Pakistan denied it A lot of folks have looked at a lot of OSINT. There is no evidence of any Indian kills. The best we can say is we have zero confirmed kills by India on Pakistan. For what it's worth, New Delhi seems to have backed off repeating its claims of kills internationally. > Pakistan claims to have shit down six jets and India says it's 3 India claims three jets crashed for unknown reasons [1]. French and US officials have indirectly confirmed those kills [2][3]. Internationally, it's being treated as three confirmed kills by Pakistan. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/three-fighter-jets-crashed-indias-jammu-kashmir-local-govt-sources-say-2025-05-07/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/three-fighter-jet... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/ https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-bro... [3] https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attack-kashmir-tourists-intl-hnk https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attac...

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> Introducing my magical new fighter jet that replaces the f35 You really think the French, Swedes, Russians or Chinese won't sell them planes? They're seeking to be a regional power. They don't need F-35s. (Though they're certainly handy.) > probably didn't work great given how India fared recently, did it? India doesn't field Israeli air defences... > only thing China reliably does is single-mindedly pursue their interests. Propping Israel up doesn't achieve that I'll grant that China has been the most consistent on Israel and Palestine. Nevertheless, Israeli-Chinese trade keeps growing. > If you say so. The chances of the Five Eyes breaking with America on recognizing Palestine were also exactly zero just a few months ago Really? According to whom? I haven't been in the UN for a while, but everyone I knew was asking when, not if. It clearly works for domestic politics, doubly following the recent trade concessions. Netherlands (not Five Eyes) was 1 in 3 [1]. Canada and France were making motions for a while; Japan and Italy were like 50% going back two months. > they're the only ones who have the money for it The U.S. funds about 15% of Israel's defence budget. We allow them to splurge in a way they can't alone. But that just means they can't defeat Hezbollah and Iran and Hamas at the same time without us. [1] https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogpalestine/palestine-recognition https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecogpalestine/palestine-recogn...

churchill 1y ago
>You really think the French, Swedes, Russians or Chinese won't sell them planes? They're seeking to be a regional power. They don't need F-35s. (Though they're certainly handy.) The fact we're even having this conversation is the point. Top-end equipment was always guaranteed. The fact you're shopping around mentally for second-best points to that. >I'll grant that China has been the most consistent on Israel and Palestine. Nevertheless, Israeli-Chinese trade keeps growing. Well, there's a reason why they've been consistent on it so far. If Israel's trade comes to depend significantly on them, they can use it as leverage against them. >Really? According to whom? I haven't been in the UN for a while, but everyone I knew was asking when, not if. It clearly works for domestic politics, doubly following the recent trade concessions. I should have been more specific than a few months ago. Here's what I meant. Many of these countries have no issues against Palestine, but wouldn't break openly with the US position because of how dependent they are. That happening is a vibe shift. >The U.S. funds about 15% of Israel's defence budget. We allow them to splurge in a way they can't alone. But that just means they can't defeat Hezbollah and Iran and Hamas at the same time without us. You keep taking my statements out of context, attacking a point I didn't make and then claiming victory. I'm not even addressing US aid to Israel, which is extensive. I'm talking about their economy! Without that trade, the economy will shrink by a lot. The technologists bringing in that FX will move away in large numbers. Spending will have to reduce by half or more, especially given Israel already has a high tax-to-gdp-ratio. The country won't survive it. More high earners will leave and you'll go into a death spiral. Dozens of UN resolutions have been issued against Israel and vetoed by the US. If it happens without American support, they'll be placed under an intl. embargo until they comply. Ask Iran what intl. embargoes have done to crush their economy before you wave it off. What America offers Israel is both a large export market they don't have internally, and protection from consequences. Israel is too integrated with the West, going as far as competing in Eurovision, UEFA, etc. If they break with the West, they can't survive it. I cite Rhodesia as an example repeatedly because that's where they slowly but surely ended up. If you end up with Western sanctions, no matter your country's size, you're fucked. USSR and Maoist China can give you any lectures you want. The 'chosen people' delusion can make it seem economic realities don't apply, but the earlier Israel can get to a lasting peace while conditions are favorable, the better.