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>My point is this isn't a realistic threat for Israel. Its exports are highly desirable to too many parties. Technology. Weapons. Energy. Everything Israel mak

>My point is this isn't a realistic threat for Israel. Its exports are highly desirable to too many parties. Technology. Weapons. Energy. Everything Israel makes is fungible. The middle east is a river of gas. Israel's defense technology industry can't exist without Western partners. Hell, America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce. >Yes, if the war in Gaza continues for another half decade, Israel will run out of goodwill. But if it wraps up within a year or two? I don't see anything happening quickly enough that they can't adapt. Apartheid was a permanent state. The war need not be. The damage has been done. Hundreds of millions globally now voice opinions about Israel openly that they wouldn't have allowed to just a few years back. These people vote in their countries, buy products, interact in the real world. We're seeing Israeli tourists get harassed openly. Would have been unthinkable in, say, 2020. >Yeah, I'd say a strategic prerogative for Israel at this point is to diversify away from America. For the aforementioned reasons, however, I don't see that being a problem. Particularly given India and China have what they consider to be problematic Muslim populations within and around themselves, too. India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan. In fact, after China delivers Pakistan's J35s, India would have nothing to counter it. Israel's military core is air supremacy so much so that it is state doctrine to use nukes if the IAF is ever destroyed. And China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution. Unlike Western politicians, they can't be lobbied and bribed to support endless wars. I have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked. There's a reason even China keeps its dealings with sanctioned Russian companies plausibly deniable. To avoid contagion. You just don't understand how dependent Israel is on the West. 53% of their exports are technology goods. If you're cut off from Western markets, not only will China not buy much from Israel, they will copy their products and compete with them. The only country you can build a shared resistance towards Muslims is India. For now, their economy is small and irrelevant. China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel (LMAO).

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> Everything Israel makes is fungible Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. And something being fungible doesn't make it less valuable. > America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here. > India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan ...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems? > China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.) > have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade. And being a democracy, there is a lot of good a change of face can do. > 53% of their exports are technology goods Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe? > China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran. If the war dies down, they've got more important things to worry about. (Their populations have never liked Israel. Not super relevant.) It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents. The Gazans will all shrivel up and die. Israel will poof away because young Americans decide foreign policy--not jobs or housing or the rule of law--is their single issue. These extreme outcomes are incredibly unlikely.
- churchill 1y ago
  >Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. My claim was specifically with China in mind. Pretty much everything the Americans will let Israel sell to non-Western partners can be gotten from China, Turkey, etc. cheaper and with less headache. >Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here. Yep. Introducing my magical new fighter jet that replaces the f35! >...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems? Well, it probably didn't work great given how India fared recently, did it? They're a committed partner of Israel and collaborate on military tech. >Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.) The only thing China reliably does is single-mindedly pursue their interests. Propping Israel up doesn't achieve that. In fact they're quite chummy with the Palestinians and lots of the weapons used for the Oct. 7 raid were Chinese-made. >Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade. If you say so. The chances of the Five Eyes breaking with America on recognizing Palestine were also exactly zero just a few months ago. >Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe? Because they're the only ones who have the money for it. No non-Western company/country has the amount of tech demand/cash to have completed the Wiz acquisition for $32b in cash. Their software markets have no viable customers outside the West. >Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran. Good point. >It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents. I have no dog in the fight. Both countries could disappear overnight and it wouldn't affect my quality of life. I'm simply a student of history and I'm trained to see patterns.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> Everything Israel makes is fungible Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. And something being fungible doesn't make it less valuable. > America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here. > India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan ...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems? > China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.) > have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade. And being a democracy, there is a lot of good a change of face can do. > 53% of their exports are technology goods Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe? > China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran. If the war dies down, they've got more important things to worry about. (Their populations have never liked Israel. Not super relevant.) It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents. The Gazans will all shrivel up and die. Israel will poof away because young Americans decide foreign policy--not jobs or housing or the rule of law--is their single issue. These extreme outcomes are incredibly unlikely.

churchill 1y ago
>Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. My claim was specifically with China in mind. Pretty much everything the Americans will let Israel sell to non-Western partners can be gotten from China, Turkey, etc. cheaper and with less headache. >Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here. Yep. Introducing my magical new fighter jet that replaces the f35! >...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems? Well, it probably didn't work great given how India fared recently, did it? They're a committed partner of Israel and collaborate on military tech. >Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.) The only thing China reliably does is single-mindedly pursue their interests. Propping Israel up doesn't achieve that. In fact they're quite chummy with the Palestinians and lots of the weapons used for the Oct. 7 raid were Chinese-made. >Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade. If you say so. The chances of the Five Eyes breaking with America on recognizing Palestine were also exactly zero just a few months ago. >Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe? Because they're the only ones who have the money for it. No non-Western company/country has the amount of tech demand/cash to have completed the Wiz acquisition for $32b in cash. Their software markets have no viable customers outside the West. >Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran. Good point. >It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents. I have no dog in the fight. Both countries could disappear overnight and it wouldn't affect my quality of life. I'm simply a student of history and I'm trained to see patterns.